Montana Senate
Open seat, currently Republican. Three-way race: Seth Bodnar is polling at about 25%, ahead of the Democrat (22%), in the 11 polls that name all three. The margin shown is Democrat minus Republican, and the model gives a third candidate no chance of winning, so read this race's numbers with care.
The average over time
Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
All 11 polls in the average
“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.
| Dates | Pollster | Sample | Bankhead | Alme | As published | Adjusted | Share of average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14–15 | Quantus Insights | 625 LV | 24.4 | 45.3 | R+21 | R+20.6 moved 0.3 toward D | 18% | source |
| Aug 27 – Sep 7 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling for Montana Free Press | 845 RV | 16 | 38 | R+22 | R+22.1 moved 0.1 toward R | 9.0% | source |
| Aug 23–25 | Moore Information GroupREP.-ALIGNED for Alme's campaign | 600 LV | 19 | 44 | R+25 | R+20.7 moved 4.3 toward D | 13% | source |
| Aug 1–4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group for Forward Montana | 800 LV | 15 | 45 | R+30 | R+29.6 moved 0.4 toward D | 14% | source |
| Jul 23–27 | Tavern ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED | 517 LV | 31.3 | 53.3 | R+22 | R+25.3 moved 3.3 toward R | 9.8% | source |
| Jul 23–26 | GQR for Contours Inc. | 500 LV | 22 | 41 | R+19 | R+18.8 moved 0.2 toward D | 11% | source |
| Jul 13–16 | The Bullfinch Group for Independent Center | Independent Leadership Council | 793 LV | 22 | 36 | R+14 | R+14.5 moved 0.5 toward R | 7.5% | source |
| Jun 23–24 | GrayHouse | 500 LV | 25 | 41 | R+16 | R+16.1 moved 0.1 toward R | 6.5% | source |
| Jun 18–24 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for The Majority Institute | 800 LV | 22 | 47 | R+25 | R+28.3 moved 3.3 toward R | 4.1% | source |
| Jun 16–19 | Tavern ResearchDEM.-ALIGNED | 400 LV | 35 | 52.5 | R+18 | R+20.8 moved 3.3 toward R | 3.1% | source |
| Jun 8–11 | Public Opinion StrategiesREP.-ALIGNED for The Political Company | 500 LV | 25 | 44 | R+19 | R+15.0 moved 4.0 toward D | 5.2% | source |
LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Jon Tester | Tim Sheehy | R+7.1 |
| 2020 | Steve Bullock | Steve Daines | R+10.0 |
| 2018 | Jon Tester | Matt Rosendale | D+3.6 |
| 2014 | Amanda G. Curtis | Steve Daines | R+17.7 |