Senate · 2026

Georgia Senate

Jon Ossoff (D)v.Mike Collins (R)LIKELY D

Incumbent: Jon Ossoff, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+8.8

Nine in ten outcomes: D+18 to Even

Chance of winning

94%

Jon Ossoff

Polls alone

D+7.7

10 polls from 9 pollsters; latest Sep 16. Weight in projection: 61%.

Fundamentals alone

D+10.6

Weight in projection: 39%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanR+0.5

National environmentD+3.3

IncumbencyD+1.8

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+1.2

Fundraising gapD+4.4

Fundamentals estimateD+10.6

Input: partisan lean

R+0.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$28.6M D · $2.2M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Tilt D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 10 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Ossoff	Collins	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Sep 14–16	Quantus Insights	645 LV	49	44.9	D+4	D+4.4 moved 0.3 toward D	19%	source
Sep 14	Rasmussen Reports	1,019 LV	51	42	D+9	D+8.9 moved 0.1 toward R	19%	source
Sep 10–12	Trafalgar GroupREP.-ALIGNED	1,091 LV	49.4	42.8	D+7	D+9.7 moved 3.1 toward D	19%	source
Aug 16–17	InsiderAdvantage for James Magazine Online	800 LV	50.1	42.6	D+8	D+7.4 moved 0.1 toward R	15%	source
Jul 13–16	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research for AARP	1,060 LV	52	43	D+9	D+8.8 moved 0.2 toward R	10%	source
Jun 27–30	Wick	1,175 LV	46.7	42.9	D+4	D+4.1 moved 0.3 toward D	7.4%	source
Jun 23–27	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News	1,002 RV	56	43	D+13	D+13.1 moved 0.1 toward D	5.1%	source
Apr 3–9	Echelon Insights for NetChoice	407 LV	51	44	D+7	D+7.3 moved 0.3 toward D	3.1%	source
Feb 28 – Mar 2	Emerson College for Nexstar	1,000 LV	47.7	43.3	D+4	D+4.4	2.2%	source
Sep 9–12 ’25	Quantus Insights	624 RV	37.8	37.7	Even	D+0.4 moved 0.3 toward D	0.1%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Raphael Warnock	Herschel Junior Walker	D+2.8
2020	Jon Ossoff	David A. Perdue	D+1.2
2020 (special)	Raphael Warnock	Kelly Loeffler	D+2.1
2016	Jim Barksdale	Johnny Isakson	R+13.8