2026-27 projections
Premier League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | 83 | 27 | 10 | 98% | >99% | 72% | — |
| 2Manchester City | #5 | 72.4 | 21 | 10 | 82% | 96% | 15% | — |
| 3Liverpool | #7 | 68.2 | 18 | 10 | 65% | 91% | 6% | — |
| 4Brighton & Hove Albion | #12 | 66.8 | 22 | 10 | 60% | 88% | 5% | <1% |
| 5Chelsea | #9 | 60.6 | 16 | 10 | 28% | 66% | 1% | <1% |
| 6AFC Bournemouth | #10 | 59.2 | 15 | 10 | 23% | 60% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Aston Villa | #16 | 55.9 | 13 | 10 | 12% | 42% | <1% | <1% |
| 8Brentford | #22 | 54.3 | 14 | 10 | 10% | 37% | <1% | 1% |
| 9Everton | #38 | 51.9 | 16 | 10 | 5% | 25% | <1% | 2% |
| 10Leeds United | #36 | 51.6 | 14 | 10 | 5% | 24% | <1% | 3% |
| 11Newcastle United | #26 | 50.8 | 12 | 10 | 4% | 22% | <1% | 4% |
| 12Tottenham Hotspur | #29 | 50.7 | 12 | 10 | 4% | 20% | <1% | 4% |
| 13Manchester United | #23 | 47.7 | 8 | 10 | 2% | 13% | — | 8% |
| 14Nottingham Forest | #45 | 44.7 | 9 | 10 | <1% | 6% | — | 14% |
| 15Fulham | #47 | 44 | 10 | 10 | <1% | 5% | — | 17% |
| 16Crystal Palace | #40 | 42.5 | 7 | 10 | <1% | 3% | — | 24% |
| 17Ipswich Town | #98 | 37.7 | 11 | 10 | <1% | <1% | — | 46% |
| 18Coventry City | #94 | 36.7 | 9 | 10 | <1% | <1% | — | 51% |
| 19Sunderland | #113 | 36.5 | 8 | 10 | <1% | <1% | — | 51% |
| 20Hull City | #228 | 32.6 | 11 | 10 | — | <1% | — | 73% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.