2026-27 projections
Premier League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | 80.4 | 18 | 7 | 96% | >99% | 49% | — |
| 2Manchester City | #4 | 78.5 | 21 | 7 | 94% | 99% | 39% | — |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | 66.8 | 12 | 7 | 58% | 87% | 5% | <1% |
| 4Brighton & Hove Albion | #11 | 64.5 | 16 | 7 | 48% | 81% | 4% | <1% |
| 5Chelsea | #9 | 63.4 | 13 | 7 | 41% | 76% | 3% | <1% |
| 6Aston Villa | #13 | 55.8 | 8 | 7 | 13% | 43% | <1% | 1% |
| 7Brentford | #20 | 55.7 | 10 | 7 | 14% | 44% | <1% | 1% |
| 8Manchester United | #17 | 52.7 | 7 | 7 | 8% | 31% | <1% | 3% |
| 9AFC Bournemouth | #21 | 52.2 | 6 | 7 | 7% | 28% | <1% | 4% |
| 10Leeds United | #32 | 51.8 | 10 | 7 | 6% | 27% | <1% | 4% |
| 11Newcastle United | #24 | 51.5 | 8 | 7 | 6% | 25% | <1% | 4% |
| 12Everton | #42 | 48.4 | 10 | 7 | 3% | 15% | <1% | 7% |
| 13Tottenham Hotspur | #29 | 47.9 | 6 | 7 | 3% | 15% | <1% | 9% |
| 14Crystal Palace | #34 | 47.7 | 7 | 7 | 2% | 14% | <1% | 9% |
| 15Nottingham Forest | #51 | 44.1 | 5 | 7 | <1% | 7% | <1% | 17% |
| 16Fulham | #41 | 43 | 5 | 7 | <1% | 5% | <1% | 21% |
| 17Ipswich Town | #99 | 39.3 | 9 | 7 | <1% | 2% | — | 39% |
| 18Coventry City | #98 | 36.9 | 6 | 7 | <1% | 1% | — | 50% |
| 19Sunderland | #106 | 36 | 4 | 7 | <1% | <1% | — | 54% |
| 20Hull City | #240 | 31.9 | 9 | 7 | — | <1% | — | 76% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.