2026-27 projections
Premier League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | 79.7 | 9 | 3 | 95% | 99% | 54% | — |
| 2Manchester City | #4 | 74.3 | 9 | 3 | 85% | 96% | 28% | — |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | 66.2 | 5 | 3 | 56% | 82% | 8% | <1% |
| 4Chelsea | #9 | 63.9 | 6 | 3 | 46% | 75% | 5% | <1% |
| 5Newcastle United | #18 | 57.7 | 5 | 3 | 22% | 51% | 1% | 1% |
| 6Manchester United | #14 | 56.3 | 4 | 3 | 18% | 45% | 1% | 2% |
| 7Brentford | #21 | 55.5 | 5 | 3 | 16% | 42% | <1% | 3% |
| 8Brighton & Hove Albion | #25 | 54.4 | 4 | 3 | 13% | 38% | <1% | 3% |
| 9Aston Villa | #20 | 53.1 | 1 | 3 | 10% | 32% | <1% | 4% |
| 10AFC Bournemouth | #24 | 52.7 | 2 | 3 | 10% | 31% | <1% | 5% |
| 11Leeds United | #37 | 51.5 | 5 | 3 | 8% | 26% | <1% | 6% |
| 12Crystal Palace | #34 | 50.2 | 3 | 3 | 6% | 22% | <1% | 7% |
| 13Everton | #46 | 49.4 | 5 | 3 | 5% | 19% | <1% | 8% |
| 14Tottenham Hotspur | #30 | 49.3 | 1 | 3 | 5% | 19% | <1% | 9% |
| 15Nottingham Forest | #52 | 45.5 | 2 | 3 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 17% |
| 16Fulham | #50 | 43.1 | 0 | 3 | 1% | 6% | <1% | 23% |
| 17Sunderland | #116 | 39.6 | 4 | 3 | <1% | 3% | <1% | 37% |
| 18Ipswich Town | #103 | 37.2 | 3 | 3 | <1% | 2% | — | 50% |
| 19Coventry City | #92 | 36.4 | 0 | 3 | <1% | 1% | — | 53% |
| 20Hull City | #265 | 32.6 | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | — | 72% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.