2026-27 projections
Premier League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | 77.8 | 12 | 5 | 93% | 99% | 44% | <1% |
| 2Manchester City | #3 | 76.9 | 15 | 5 | 91% | 98% | 40% | — |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | 67 | 9 | 5 | 60% | 85% | 8% | <1% |
| 4Brighton & Hove Albion | #12 | 60.9 | 10 | 5 | 34% | 66% | 3% | <1% |
| 5Chelsea | #9 | 59.7 | 7 | 5 | 28% | 59% | 2% | <1% |
| 6Brentford | #17 | 57.5 | 9 | 5 | 21% | 50% | 1% | 1% |
| 7Newcastle United | #21 | 56.2 | 8 | 5 | 17% | 44% | <1% | 2% |
| 8Manchester United | #13 | 54.5 | 5 | 5 | 13% | 38% | <1% | 2% |
| 9Aston Villa | #19 | 53.2 | 4 | 5 | 10% | 32% | <1% | 3% |
| 10Leeds United | #34 | 53 | 9 | 5 | 10% | 31% | <1% | 4% |
| 11AFC Bournemouth | #24 | 51.3 | 3 | 5 | 7% | 26% | <1% | 5% |
| 12Everton | #46 | 50.8 | 9 | 5 | 6% | 22% | <1% | 5% |
| 13Crystal Palace | #31 | 48.5 | 4 | 5 | 4% | 16% | <1% | 9% |
| 14Tottenham Hotspur | #30 | 46.1 | 2 | 5 | 2% | 11% | <1% | 15% |
| 15Nottingham Forest | #50 | 45.9 | 5 | 5 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 14% |
| 16Fulham | #47 | 43.6 | 2 | 5 | 1% | 7% | <1% | 21% |
| 17Sunderland | #107 | 38.2 | 4 | 5 | <1% | 2% | — | 43% |
| 18Ipswich Town | #99 | 38.1 | 6 | 5 | <1% | 2% | — | 45% |
| 19Coventry City | #103 | 35.4 | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | — | 59% |
| 20Hull City | #248 | 32.8 | 8 | 5 | <1% | <1% | — | 72% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.