House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Saint Anselm College Survey Center

Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2008 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.40
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −2.02; 14% own record)
Average miss
4.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
37
20 races · 12 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
200848.7+3.6D+7.7
201835.7−0.9D+0.9
2020103.5−2.5R+0.2
202284.5−0.2R+1.6
2024124.1−5.6R+4.8
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Aug 18, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+11
Aug 18, 2026NH-2Maggie Goodlander v. Lily Tang WilliamsD+15
Aug 18, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+7
Jun 25, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+8
Jun 25, 2026NH-2Maggie Goodlander v. Lily Tang WilliamsD+19
Jun 25, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+6
Mar 18, 2026Governor NHCinde Warmington v. Kelly AyotteR+7
Mar 18, 2026NH-2Maggie Goodlander v. Lily Tang WilliamsD+12
Mar 18, 2026Senate NHChris Pappas v. John E. SununuD+3
Nov 19, 2025NH-2Maggie Goodlander v. Lily Tang WilliamsD+5
Nov 19, 2025Senate NHChris Pappas v. John SununuD+3
Aug 27, 2025NH-2Maggie Goodlander v. Lily Tang WilliamsD+18
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 29, 20242024 President, NHD+5D+2.8D+2.2D+5.7
Oct 29, 20242024 House, NH-2D+8D+6.0D+2.0D+13.2
Oct 29, 20242024 House, NH-1D+7D+8.1R+1.1D+6.7
Oct 29, 20242024 Governor, NHR+3R+9.3D+6.3D+9.5
Oct 2, 20242024 President, NHD+7D+2.8D+4.2D+5.7
Oct 2, 20242024 House, NH-2D+12D+6.0D+6.0D+13.2
Oct 2, 20242024 House, NH-1D+9D+8.1D+0.9D+6.7
Oct 2, 20242024 Governor, NHR+3R+9.3D+6.3D+9.5
Sep 12, 20242024 President, NHD+8D+2.8D+5.2D+5.7
Sep 12, 20242024 House, NH-2D+11D+6.0D+5.0D+13.2
Sep 12, 20242024 House, NH-1D+12D+8.1D+3.9D+6.7
Sep 12, 20242024 Governor, NHR+3R+9.3D+6.3D+9.5
Oct 29, 20222022 House, NH-1R+6D+8.1R+14.1R+3.7
Oct 29, 20222022 Senate, NHR+1D+9.1R+10.1R+3.3
Oct 29, 20222022 House, NH-2D+8D+11.7R+3.7R+2.7
Oct 29, 20222022 Governor, NHR+18R+15.5R+2.5D+0.2
Sep 28, 20222022 House, NH-1D+8D+8.1R+0.1R+3.7
Sep 28, 20222022 House, NH-2D+14D+11.7D+2.3R+2.7
Sep 28, 20222022 Senate, NHD+6D+9.1R+3.1R+3.3
Sep 28, 20222022 Governor, NHR+16R+15.5R+0.5D+0.2
Oct 26, 20202020 Senate, NHD+15D+15.6R+0.6Even
Oct 26, 20202020 House, NH-1D+5D+5.1R+0.1D+3.6
Oct 26, 20202020 Governor, NHR+25R+31.8D+6.8D+13.3
Oct 26, 20202020 President, NHD+8D+7.4D+0.6D+2.6
Oct 26, 20202020 House, NH-2D+15D+10.2D+4.8R+3.5
Oct 4, 20202020 Governor, NHR+23R+31.8D+8.8D+13.3
Oct 4, 20202020 House, NH-1D+8D+5.1D+2.9D+3.6
Oct 4, 20202020 House, NH-2D+14D+10.2D+3.8R+3.5
Oct 4, 20202020 President, NHD+12D+7.4D+4.6D+2.6
Oct 4, 20202020 Senate, NHD+14D+15.6R+1.6Even
Oct 15, 20182018 House, NH-2D+27D+13.4D+13.7D+6.9
Oct 15, 20182018 House, NH-1D+9D+8.6D+0.3D+1.1
Oct 15, 20182018 Governor, NHR+10R+7.0R+3.0D+0.4
Sep 27, 20082008 Governor, NHD+66D+42.6D+23.4D+3.6
Sep 27, 20082008 House, NH-1D+7D+5.9D+1.1D+0.4
Sep 27, 20082008 Senate, NHD+14D+6.3D+7.7D+1.3
Sep 27, 20082008 President, NHD+12D+9.6D+2.4R+1.3