Pollster record · how records are scored
Moore Information Group
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2022 · 76% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.11
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.63; 15% own record)
Average miss
6.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
49
39 races · 4 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 2 | 10.6 | +4.1 | Even |
| 2000 | 5 | 6.3 | −1.1 | R+6.0 |
| 2002 | 3 | 2.8 | −5.7 | D+0.1 |
| 2004 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.5 | R+3.4 |
| 2006 | 2 | 8.3 | +3.5 | D+1.8 |
| 2008 | 4 | 6.8 | +3.4 | R+2.0 |
| 2010 | 3 | 10.1 | +0.1 | R+1.0 |
| 2012 | 4 | 5.0 | −0.9 | R+2.2 |
| 2014 | 5 | 9.9 | +3.5 | D+4.9 |
| 2016 | 6 | 5.8 | −2.2 | D+1.5 |
| 2018 | 1 | 12.2 | +6.2 | R+2.9 |
| 2020 | 3 | 7.5 | −2.6 | D+1.8 |
| 2022 | 7 | 6.6 | +3.1 | R+0.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+25 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | AZ-2 | Jonathan Nez v. Eli Crane | R+11 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Senate ID | Todd Achilles v. James Risch | R+34 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Senate NH | Chris Pappas v. John Sununu | D+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WAR-ALIGNED | Even | D+14.5 | R+14.9 | R+6.0 |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GAR-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+1.0 | R+6.0 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 House, IA-3R-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+0.7 | R+1.3 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GAR-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+1.0 | R+5.0 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WAR-ALIGNED | Even | D+14.5 | R+14.5 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GAR-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+1.0 | R+3.0 | D+0.2 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 House, IA-3R-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+0.7 | R+1.3 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 Senate, ALR-ALIGNED | R+15 | R+20.4 | D+5.4 | D+9.8 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 President, ALR-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+25.5 | D+8.5 | D+5.6 |
| Sep 22, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MER-ALIGNED | Even | R+8.6 | D+8.6 | D+13.2 |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2018 House, NV-4R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+8.2 | R+12.2 | R+5.4 |
| Oct 5, 2016 | 2016 President, AKR-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+14.7 | D+11.7 | D+11.0 |
| Oct 5, 2016 | 2016 Senate, AKR-ALIGNED | R+40 | R+32.7 | R+7.3 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 House, AZ-1R-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+7.3 | R+4.3 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 2, 2016 | 2016 House, MT-1R-ALIGNED | R+11 | R+15.6 | D+4.6 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 President, AKR-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+14.7 | D+6.7 | D+11.0 |
| Sep 14, 2016 | 2016 Senate, AKR-ALIGNED | R+33 | R+32.7 | R+0.3 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 27, 2014 | 2014 Senate, AKR-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.1 | R+1.9 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 10, 2014 | 2014 House, WA-1 | R+21 | D+10.1 | R+31.1 | — |
| Oct 7, 2014 | 2014 Governor, AZ | D+3 | R+11.8 | D+14.8 | D+6.5 |
| Oct 5, 2014 | 2014 House, WA-1 | D+9 | D+10.1 | R+1.1 | — |
| Sep 23, 2014 | 2014 House, CA-3R-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+5.4 | D+0.6 | — |
| Oct 8, 2012 | 2012 House, CA-21R-ALIGNED | R+20 | R+15.5 | R+4.5 | D+7.6 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 2012 President, AZ | R+4 | R+9.1 | D+5.1 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 2012 Senate, AZ | R+3 | R+3.0 | Even | D+1.0 |
| Jan 11, 2012 | 2012 House, OR-1R-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+14.2 | R+10.2 | R+5.2 |
| Oct 12, 2010 | 2010 Governor, AZR-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+11.9 | R+5.1 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 11, 2010 | 2010 House, OR-5R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+5.3 | R+9.3 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 House, ID-1R-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+9.7 | D+15.7 | D+18.0 |
| Oct 27, 2008 | 2008 Senate, ORR-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+3.4 | R+7.4 | R+1.3 |
| Oct 27, 2008 | 2008 President, ORR-ALIGNED | D+14 | D+16.3 | R+2.3 | R+4.3 |
| Sep 24, 2008 | 2008 Senate, SD | D+18 | D+25.0 | R+7.0 | R+1.1 |
| Sep 10, 2008 | 2008 President, OR | D+6 | D+16.3 | R+10.3 | R+4.3 |
| Sep 15, 2006 | 2006 Governor, OR | Even | D+8.0 | R+8.0 | R+2.4 |
| Apr 29, 2006 | 2006 House, CA-50R-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+4.6 | D+8.6 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 25, 2004 | 2004 President, OR | D+2 | D+4.2 | R+2.2 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 5, 2004 | 2004 President, WI | R+2 | D+0.4 | R+2.4 | R+3.0 |
| Oct 3, 2004 | 2004 President, WA | D+2 | D+7.2 | R+5.2 | D+0.7 |
| Sep 19, 2004 | 2004 President, WA | D+2 | D+7.2 | R+5.2 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 15, 2002 | 2002 Governor, AKR-ALIGNED | R+16 | R+15.1 | R+0.9 | D+16.2 |
| Sep 24, 2002 | 2002 House, UT-2R-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+0.7 | D+7.3 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 22, 2002 | 2002 Senate, ORR-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+16.6 | R+0.4 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 17, 2000 | 2000 House, MO-2R-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+12.9 | D+10.9 | — |
| Oct 16, 2000 | 2000 House, WA-2R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+4.1 | R+8.1 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 11, 2000 | 2000 Senate, NER-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+2.2 | R+4.2 | D+9.3 |
| Sep 20, 2000 | 2000 Senate, NER-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+2.2 | R+3.2 | D+9.3 |
| Sep 20, 2000 | 2000 President, NER-ALIGNED | R+24 | R+29.0 | D+5.0 | D+8.7 |
| Oct 14, 1998 | 1998 House, MT-1R-ALIGNED | R+15 | R+8.6 | R+6.4 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 24, 1998 | 1998 Senate, WAR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+16.8 | R+14.8 | R+7.1 |