Senate · 2026
Illinois Senate
Juliana Stratton (D)v.Don Tracy (R)LIKELY D
Open seat, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+16.9
Nine in ten outcomes: D+34 to Even
Chance of winning
94%
Juliana Stratton
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+16.9
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.5
Partisan leanD+9.2
National environmentD+3.3
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundraising gapD+3.9
Fundamentals estimateD+16.9
Input: partisan lean
D+12.4
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$3.7M D · $368K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tammy Duckworth | Kathy Salvi | D+15.3 |
| 2020 | Richard J. Durbin | Mark C. Curran | D+16.1 |
| 2016 | Tammy Duckworth | Mark Kirk | D+15.1 |
| 2014 | Richard J. Durbin | James D. Oberweis | D+10.9 |