Pollster record · how records are scored
Wick
Method: ivr mix · scored polls from 2018 to 2022
Versus the field
−0.01
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.59; 16% own record)
Average miss
4.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.9
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
26
21 races · 6 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 | 3.2 | −2.2 | R+1.1 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3.1 | −0.9 | R+4.6 |
| 2022 | 17 | 5.4 | +1.7 | R+2.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | Governor GA | Keisha Lance Bottoms v. Rick Jackson | R+1 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Senate GA | Jon Ossoff v. Mike Collins | D+4 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NH | Even | D+9.1 | R+9.2 | R+3.1 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NH | R+11 | R+15.5 | D+4.9 | R+0.4 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | D+1 | D+10.5 | R+9.2 | R+3.8 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | R+2 | D+0.7 | R+3.1 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+2 | D+4.9 | R+2.6 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | Even | D+3.4 | R+3.7 | R+3.1 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+4 | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+6 | D+14.8 | R+8.9 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | R+2 | D+4.9 | R+6.6 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MI | R+1 | D+10.5 | R+11.3 | R+3.8 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AZ | D+3 | D+4.9 | R+2.4 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AZ | Even | D+0.7 | R+0.6 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GA | R+9 | R+7.5 | R+1.6 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | R+5 | D+4.9 | R+9.4 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, NC | R+5 | R+3.2 | R+1.3 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+2 | D+14.8 | R+12.7 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GA | Even | D+1.0 | R+1.0 | D+0.3 |
| Dec 14, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GA | R+3 | D+2.1 | R+4.6 | R+0.8 |
| Dec 14, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GA | R+4 | D+1.2 | R+5.3 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, NC | R+2 | R+1.3 | R+0.9 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, MI | Even | D+2.8 | R+2.5 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, OH | R+3 | R+8.0 | D+5.1 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, GA | R+3 | D+0.2 | R+2.7 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, FL | R+3 | R+3.4 | D+0.5 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 28, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | R+2 | D+1.2 | R+3.3 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 30, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MER-ALIGNED | R+28 | R+24.8 | R+3.2 | D+1.8 |