Pollster record · how records are scored
McLaughlin & Associates
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2000 to 2024 · 83% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.44
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.85; 26% own record)
Average miss
7.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.7
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
88
70 races · 37 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 7 | 4.4 | −1.8 | D+1.1 |
| 2001 | 2 | 2.4 | −1.7 | R+0.6 |
| 2002 | 1 | 4.8 | −3.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2004 | 6 | 1.3 | −2.8 | D+0.4 |
| 2006 | 3 | 12.4 | +5.8 | R+5.2 |
| 2008 | 6 | 11.3 | +0.1 | R+4.3 |
| 2009 | 1 | 49.2 | +21.1 | R+23.2 |
| 2010 | 6 | 9.5 | +3.0 | R+0.4 |
| 2011 | 1 | 1.7 | −3.9 | D+5.4 |
| 2012 | 26 | 8.1 | +4.2 | R+1.1 |
| 2013 | 3 | 6.9 | +3.5 | R+2.7 |
| 2014 | 3 | 4.7 | −0.0 | D+4.6 |
| 2016 | 5 | 7.8 | +1.3 | R+0.5 |
| 2018 | 8 | 11.0 | +6.7 | R+7.3 |
| 2020 | 1 | 1.0 | −3.5 | R+5.1 |
| 2022 | 6 | 4.7 | −0.6 | R+4.0 |
| 2024 | 3 | 7.7 | +0.6 | R+0.8 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+4 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+2 | |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Governor NM | Deb Haaland v. Gregg Hull | D+1 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| May 18, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | OH-9 | Marcy Kaptur v. Derek Merrin | R+4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Governor NY | Kathy Hochul v. Bruce Blakeman | D+9 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+2 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+1 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+1 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+2 | |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+6 | |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Governor FL | David Jolly v. Byron Donalds | R+8 |
| Aug 26, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+2 | |
| Jul 24, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+5 | |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+2 | |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+2 | |
| May 26, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+4 | |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+2 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+1 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+3 | |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+7 | |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+4 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+8 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2024 House, NY-22R-ALIGNED | Even | D+9.1 | R+9.1 | — |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 2024 Senate, FL | R+7 | R+12.8 | D+5.8 | D+8.2 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 2024 President, FL | R+5 | R+13.1 | D+8.1 | D+7.2 |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CTR-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+11.4 | R+6.4 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+6 | R+2.6 | R+3.4 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-17R-ALIGNED | R+6 | D+2.7 | R+8.7 | — |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NYR-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+7.3 | R+1.5 | D+1.3 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 8, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-17R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+2.7 | R+6.7 | — |
| Sep 27, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+2 | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+2 | D+8.5 | R+6.5 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2018 House, NJ-5R-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+13.7 | R+4.7 | — |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-27R-ALIGNED | R+9 | D+6.0 | R+15.0 | R+3.1 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 House, GA-7R-ALIGNED | R+27 | R+0.1 | R+26.9 | R+5.9 |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-10R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+12.4 | R+13.4 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MOR-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+5.8 | R+2.2 | D+5.2 |
| Sep 24, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+4 | D+8.5 | R+4.5 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-27R-ALIGNED | R+9 | D+6.0 | R+15.0 | R+3.1 |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2016 President, NYR-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+24.0 | R+13.0 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2016 Senate, WIR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+3.4 | D+5.4 | D+8.1 |
| Oct 19, 2016 | 2016 President, WIR-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+0.8 | D+5.8 | D+5.8 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-18R-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+10.5 | D+3.5 | — |
| Sep 13, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-18R-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+10.5 | D+11.5 | — |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2014 Governor, AZR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+11.8 | D+10.8 | D+6.5 |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FLR-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+1.1 | D+2.1 | D+1.7 |
| Sep 10, 2014 | 2014 House, FL-26R-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.9 | R+1.1 | D+1.5 |
| Jun 18, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MAR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+10.2 | R+7.2 | R+0.2 |
| Jun 11, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MAR-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+10.2 | R+4.2 | R+0.2 |
| Jun 4, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MAR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+10.2 | R+9.2 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 31, 2012 | 2012 President, INR-ALIGNED | R+13 | R+10.2 | R+2.8 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 31, 2012 | 2012 Senate, INR-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+5.8 | R+7.8 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 31, 2012 | 2012 Governor, INR-ALIGNED | R+12 | R+2.9 | R+9.1 | R+6.1 |
| Oct 29, 2012 | 2012 Senate, INR-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+5.8 | R+6.8 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 29, 2012 | 2012 President, INR-ALIGNED | R+18 | R+10.2 | R+7.8 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 President, INR-ALIGNED | R+14 | R+10.2 | R+3.8 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 Senate, INR-ALIGNED | Even | D+5.8 | R+5.8 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-6R-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+32.9 | R+29.9 | — |
| Oct 14, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-1R-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+9.3 | R+14.3 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 11, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-10R-ALIGNED | R+10 | D+1.3 | R+11.3 | R+5.0 |
| Oct 11, 2012 | 2012 Senate, RIR-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+29.8 | R+21.8 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 8, 2012 | 2012 President, VAR-ALIGNED | R+7 | D+3.9 | R+10.9 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 8, 2012 | 2012 Senate, VAR-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+5.9 | R+6.9 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 7, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PAR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+9.1 | R+7.1 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 3, 2012 | 2012 President, INR-ALIGNED | R+16 | R+10.2 | R+5.8 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 3, 2012 | 2012 Governor, INR-ALIGNED | R+14 | R+2.9 | R+11.1 | R+6.1 |
| Oct 3, 2012 | 2012 Senate, INR-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+5.8 | R+8.8 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 1, 2012 | 2012 PresidentR-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+3.9 | D+0.1 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 1, 2012 | 2012 President, COR-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+5.4 | R+9.4 | R+4.1 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-26 | D+10 | D+10.6 | R+0.6 | R+7.5 |
| Sep 19, 2012 | 2012 House, PA-12R-ALIGNED | Even | R+3.5 | D+3.5 | D+4.9 |
| Sep 17, 2012 | 2012 House, NJ-3R-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+8.9 | R+8.1 | R+1.1 |
| Sep 14, 2012 | 2012 President, OH | D+3 | D+3.0 | R+0.1 | R+0.2 |
| Sep 11, 2012 | 2012 President, FL | R+4 | D+0.9 | R+4.8 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 11, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-10R-ALIGNED | R+7 | D+1.3 | R+8.3 | R+5.0 |
| Sep 9, 2012 | 2012 President, FL | R+3 | D+0.9 | R+3.9 | R+0.8 |
| Aug 31, 2011 | 2011 House, NY-9R-ALIGNED | Even | R+1.7 | D+1.7 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 20, 2010 | 2010 Governor, CAR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+12.9 | R+9.9 | R+7.8 |
| Oct 6, 2010 | 2010 House, NY-4R-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+14.3 | R+13.3 | — |
| Oct 4, 2010 | 2010 House, NY-25R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+10.5 | R+11.5 | D+1.5 |
| Sep 22, 2010 | 2010 House, FL-24R-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+19.3 | D+9.3 | D+9.8 |