House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Quinnipiac University

Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2025

Versus the field
+0.13
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.21; 59% own record)
Average miss
5.2
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
441
160 races · 31 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
19981211.7−0.2R+2.4
2000205.8−0.3D+1.8
200142.8−0.3R+1.8
2002125.0+0.3R+1.5
2004314.7−0.4R+2.6
200543.2+0.0D+0.2
2006276.3−0.3D+0.5
2008414.2−0.3D+1.6
200943.3−1.1R+0.1
2010445.8−0.2R+3.2
2012363.6−0.7D+1.8
2013134.9−0.1R+4.0
2014355.1+0.6R+1.4
2016504.6−0.1R+0.1
201774.7+0.4D+7.2
2018234.6+0.5D+1.4
2020358.3+2.3D+3.3
2022124.1−0.5D+1.3
2024283.6+0.4R+0.7
202537.0−2.5D+2.5
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 14, 2026Governor CTNed Lamont v. Ryan FazioD+17
Sep 6, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Jul 27, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Jul 13, 2026Governor PAJosh Shapiro v. Stacy GarrityD+13
Jun 22, 2026Generic ballotD+7
May 18, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Mar 23, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Feb 23, 2026Governor PAJosh Shapiro v. Stacy GarrityD+18
Dec 15, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Oct 20, 2025Generic ballotD+9
Sep 29, 2025Governor PAJosh Shapiro v. Stacy GarrityD+16
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 28, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+8D+14.4R+6.4R+9.6
Oct 13, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+6D+14.4R+8.4R+9.6
Sep 15, 20252025-GOV-NJ D+8D+14.4R+6.4R+9.6
Oct 28, 20242024 President, PAR+2R+1.7D+0.2D+2.5
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, PAD+3R+0.2D+3.2D+4.7
Oct 21, 20242024 President, WIEvenR+0.9D+0.9D+3.0
Oct 21, 20242024 Senate, MID+8D+0.3D+7.7D+4.2
Oct 21, 20242024 Senate, WID+1D+0.8D+0.2D+3.0
Oct 21, 20242024 President, MID+4R+1.4D+4.9D+3.7
Oct 14, 20242024 Governor, NCD+12D+14.8R+2.8R+0.8
Oct 14, 20242024 President, NCD+3R+3.2D+5.7D+2.5
Oct 14, 20242024 President, GAR+7R+2.2R+4.3D+1.7
Oct 7, 20242024 Senate, PAD+8R+0.2D+8.2D+4.7
Oct 7, 20242024 President, WIR+2R+0.9R+1.1D+3.0
Oct 7, 20242024 Senate, MIEvenD+0.3R+0.3D+4.2
Oct 7, 20242024 Senate, WID+4D+0.8D+3.2D+3.0
Oct 7, 20242024 President, PAD+3R+1.7D+4.2D+2.5
Oct 7, 20242024 President, MIR+4R+1.4R+2.1D+3.7
Sep 29, 20242024 President, GAR+6R+2.2R+3.3D+1.7
Sep 29, 20242024 Governor, NCD+13D+14.8R+2.3R+0.8
Sep 29, 20242024 President, NCR+2R+3.2D+1.7D+2.5
Sep 22, 20242024 PresidentR+1R+1.5D+1.0D+3.8
Sep 16, 20242024 Senate, WID+4D+0.8D+3.2D+3.0
Sep 16, 20242024 President, WID+1R+0.9D+1.9D+3.0
Sep 16, 20242024 President, PAD+6R+1.7D+7.2D+2.5
Sep 16, 20242024 Senate, MID+5D+0.3D+4.7D+4.2
Sep 16, 20242024 Senate, PAD+9R+0.2D+9.2D+4.7
Sep 16, 20242024 President, MID+5R+1.4D+6.4D+3.7
Sep 8, 20242024 President, NCD+3R+3.2D+6.2D+2.5
Sep 8, 20242024 President, GAR+4R+2.2R+1.3D+1.7
Sep 8, 20242024 Governor, NCD+11D+14.8R+3.8R+0.8
Oct 30, 20222022 Generic ballotR+4R+2.6R+1.4D+3.0
Oct 23, 20222022 Senate, CTD+15D+13.1D+1.9D+0.8
Oct 23, 20222022 Governor, CTD+15D+11.4D+3.6D+3.0
Oct 16, 20222022 Governor, NYD+4D+7.3R+3.3D+1.6
Oct 16, 20222022 Senate, NYD+12D+14.0R+2.0D+4.1
Oct 10, 20222022 Governor, GAR+1R+7.5D+6.5D+0.2
Oct 10, 20222022 Senate, GAD+7D+1.0D+6.0Even
Sep 26, 20222022 Governor, TXR+7R+10.9D+3.9D+2.9
Sep 19, 20222022 Senate, CTD+17D+13.1D+3.9D+0.8
Sep 19, 20222022 Governor, CTD+17D+11.4D+5.6D+3.0
Sep 12, 20222022 Governor, GAR+2R+7.5D+5.5D+0.2
Sep 12, 20222022 Senate, GAD+6D+1.0D+5.0Even
Nov 1, 20202020 PresidentD+11D+4.4D+6.6D+4.3
Nov 1, 20202020 President, OHD+4R+8.0D+12.0D+6.0
Nov 1, 20202020 President, FLD+5R+3.4D+8.4D+5.3
Oct 27, 20202020 President, FLD+3R+3.4D+6.4D+5.3
Oct 27, 20202020 President, PAD+7D+1.2D+5.8D+4.0
Oct 27, 20202020 Senate, IAR+2R+6.6D+4.6D+7.5
Oct 27, 20202020 President, OHD+5R+8.0D+13.0D+6.0
Oct 27, 20202020 President, IAR+1R+8.2D+7.2D+7.2
Oct 19, 20202020 PresidentD+10D+4.4D+5.6D+4.3
Oct 19, 20202020 President, PAD+8D+1.2D+6.8D+4.0
Oct 19, 20202020 Senate, TXR+6R+9.6D+3.6D+3.7
Oct 19, 20202020 President, TXEvenR+5.6D+5.6D+2.8
Oct 12, 20202020 President, OHD+1R+8.0D+9.0D+6.0
Oct 12, 20202020 President, GAD+7D+0.2D+6.8D+0.4
Oct 12, 20202020 Senate, GAD+6R+1.8D+7.8D+1.3
Oct 5, 20202020 President, FLD+11R+3.4D+14.4D+5.3
Oct 5, 20202020 President, PAD+13D+1.2D+11.8D+4.0