House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

J.L. Partners

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2020 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.09; 8% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
3.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
12
8 races · 35 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
202036.9+2.2D+2.6
202492.7−0.4R+2.2
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Aug 18, 2026Senate ARHallie Shoffner v. Tom CottonR+16
Aug 17, 2026NY-21Blake Gendebien v. Anthony ConstantinoR+13
Jul 20, 2026Generic ballotD+9
Jun 26, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Nov 20, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Nov 10, 2025Governor NYKathy Hochul v. Bruce BlakemanD+11
Oct 15, 2025Generic ballotD+6
Jun 6, 2025Generic ballotD+7
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 29, 20242024 Generic ballotR+3R+2.7R+0.3D+3.6
Oct 29, 20242024 PresidentR+3R+1.5R+1.5D+3.7
Oct 26, 20242024 President, AZR+1R+5.5D+4.5D+4.7
Oct 24, 20242024 President, OHR+9R+11.2D+2.2D+4.4
Oct 24, 20242024 Senate, OHR+6R+3.6R+2.4D+4.5
Oct 8, 20242024 President, PAEvenR+1.7D+1.7D+2.6
Sep 16, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.0D+3.7
Sep 13, 20242024 PresidentD+5R+1.5D+6.5D+3.7
Feb 12, 20242024 House, NY-3D+1D+3.6R+2.6D+0.3
Oct 28, 20202020 PresidentD+14D+4.4D+9.6D+4.3
Oct 13, 20202020 PresidentD+10D+4.4D+5.6D+4.3
Sep 23, 20202020 PresidentD+10D+4.4D+5.6D+4.3