The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 25, 12:00 AM UTC

Santos vs Bahia

Up to 37.1 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.5%	27.9%	+10.4 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	44.9%	31.9%	-13.0 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,973 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 11:00 PM UTC

Corinthians vs Mirassol

Up to 35.8 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	38.9%	22.5%	-16.4 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	11.8%	19.2%	+7.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,531 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 10:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro

Up to 33.7 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	64.2%	79.5%	+15.3 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	87.7%	80.1%	-7.6 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,390 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians

Up to 33.6 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	10.9%	3.6%	-7.3 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	38.9%	51.2%	+12.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,694 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 7:30 PM UTC

Internacional vs Botafogo

Up to 33.3 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	49.6%	33.1%	-16.5 pp
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.8%	0.2%	-0.6 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	1.5%	3.0%	+1.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,172 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 12:30 AM UTC

Bahia vs São Paulo

Up to 32.2 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	44.9%	59.9%	+15.0 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	4.0%	1.0%	-3.0 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,457 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Internacional

Up to 32.2 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	85.2%	93.0%	+7.8 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	49.6%	59.2%	+9.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,285 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 10:30 PM UTC

Coritiba vs Grêmio

Up to 31.0 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	7.6%	1.1%	-6.5 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	70.4%	83.4%	+13.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,925 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam

Up to 30.3 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	54.9%	65.8%	+11.0 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	84.3%	89.4%	+5.2 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	33.6%	23.7%	-9.9 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	70.2%	63.9%	-6.3 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,549 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 26, 6:30 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Up to 28.5 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	52.3%	63.8%	+11.6 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.3%	84.3%	+8.0 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	24.5%	14.6%	-10.0 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	52.7%	44.1%	-8.6 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,902 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR

Up to 27.0 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	70.4%	56.4%	-14.0 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	92.9%	88.5%	-4.4 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,307 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 11:00 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 26.6 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	58.2%	65.3%	+7.1 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	64.2%	58.2%	-6.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,172 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Palmeiras

Up to 25.5 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.5%	32.4%	+14.9 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	41.8%	27.7%	-14.1 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,832 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Up to 25.4 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.3%	+0.2 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	10.9%	2.9%	-8.0 pp
FlamengoWin league	58.2%	44.6%	-13.6 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,755 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 8:00 PM UTC

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Up to 25.0 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BarcelonaWin league	75.0%	84.1%	+9.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.9%	100.0%	+0.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Real MadridWin league	17.8%	9.6%	-8.3 pp
Real MadridFinish top 4	98.3%	97.5%	-0.8 pp
Real MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,434 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Lille

Up to 24.4 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	4.4%	6.4%	+2.0 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	44.1%	55.1%	+11.0 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LilleWin league	2.1%	1.2%	-0.9 pp
LilleFinish top 3	30.4%	21.6%	-8.8 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,522 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Genoa

Up to 23.6 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.9%	29.4%	-12.5 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	32.1%	43.1%	+11.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,265 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 24, 2:30 PM UTC

Estrela vs Casa Pia

Up to 23.5 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstrelaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish bottom 2	11.4%	6.5%	-4.8 pp
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	51.6%	60.3%	+8.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,558 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Mans

Up to 23.3 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.1%	37.2%	-10.8 pp
Le MansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Le MansFinish top 3	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
Le MansFinish bottom 2	26.7%	35.5%	+8.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,210 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 24, 1:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurum BB

Up to 23.2 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	38.1%	27.7%	-10.4 pp
Erzurum BBWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish bottom 3	27.6%	35.1%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,481 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino

Up to 23.0 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	41.8%	47.9%	+6.1 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.5%	1.1%	-1.4 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,839 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburg SV

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	40.6%	29.6%	-11.0 pp
Hamburg SVWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Hamburg SVFinish top 4	2.3%	1.3%	-1.0 pp
Hamburg SVFinish bottom 2	9.6%	13.7%	+4.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,040 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Brighton & Hove Albion: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	5.0%	7.0%	+2.0 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	56.5%	65.3%	+8.8 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	3.3%	2.2%	-1.1 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	47.9%	39.6%	-8.3 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,182 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

Parma vs Udinese

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	61.2%	51.0%	-10.3 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	45.1%	55.6%	+10.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,691 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	74.7%	64.5%	-10.2 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.3%	0.3%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	39.2%	50.4%	+11.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,326 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	40.2%	32.0%	-8.2 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.2%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	40.6%	48.6%	+7.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,335 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 25, 1:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Konyaspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	37.0%	28.7%	-8.4 pp
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	40.6%	48.8%	+8.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,714 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 2, 11:00 PM UTC

Red Bull Bragantino vs Santos

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Santos: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.5%	4.8%	+2.3 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.5%	10.2%	-7.3 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,627 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Fulham

Up to 22.0 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	49.8%	37.8%	-12.0 pp
FulhamWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FulhamFinish top 4	0.8%	0.3%	-0.5 pp
FulhamFinish bottom 3	21.4%	29.9%	+8.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,414 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 25, 3:30 PM UTC

Estoril vs Moreirense

Up to 21.9 percentage points between scenarios · Estoril: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstorilWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish bottom 2	29.4%	19.7%	-9.7 pp
MoreirenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MoreirenseFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MoreirenseFinish bottom 2	11.2%	15.3%	+4.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,544 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 24, 2:15 PM UTC

Racing Santander vs Espanyol

Up to 21.8 percentage points between scenarios · Racing Santander: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Racing SantanderWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Racing SantanderFinish top 4	0.3%	0.5%	+0.2 pp
Racing SantanderFinish bottom 3	37.1%	27.3%	-9.8 pp
EspanyolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EspanyolFinish top 4	0.4%	0.2%	-0.3 pp
EspanyolFinish bottom 3	23.8%	30.9%	+7.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,441 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

FC Cologne vs Schalke 04

Up to 21.6 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FC CologneWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FC CologneFinish top 4	1.3%	2.0%	+0.7 pp
FC CologneFinish bottom 2	14.0%	8.5%	-5.4 pp
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	40.9%	48.4%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,150 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 23, 7:00 PM UTC

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.3%	0.6%	+0.3 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	39.2%	27.4%	-11.8 pp
Nottingham ForestWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Nottingham ForestFinish top 4	0.8%	0.3%	-0.4 pp
Nottingham ForestFinish bottom 3	17.7%	25.9%	+8.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,365 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	49.8%	39.9%	-9.9 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	53.3%	62.3%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,173 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 7:45 PM UTC

Juventus vs Napoli

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
JuventusWin league	5.9%	8.3%	+2.5 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	49.8%	59.4%	+9.6 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
NapoliWin league	1.7%	1.0%	-0.7 pp
NapoliFinish top 4	27.9%	20.9%	-7.0 pp
NapoliFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,645 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

West Ham United vs Southampton

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · West Ham United: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
West Ham UnitedWin league	66.1%	72.6%	+6.5 pp
West Ham UnitedFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
West Ham UnitedAutomatic promotion	83.5%	88.0%	+4.5 pp
SouthamptonWin league	9.2%	5.3%	-3.9 pp
SouthamptonFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SouthamptonAutomatic promotion	28.8%	22.8%	-6.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,767 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 24, 4:45 PM UTC

Willem II vs SC Cambuur

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · SC Cambuur: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Willem IIWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish bottom 2	80.0%	72.0%	-8.0 pp
SC CambuurWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish bottom 2	29.5%	39.2%	+9.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,933 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 2, 5:00 PM UTC

Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	40.6%	29.4%	-11.2 pp
AlanyasporWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
AlanyasporFinish top 2	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
AlanyasporFinish bottom 3	5.6%	9.3%	+3.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,385 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 3, 7:45 PM UTC

Watford vs Lincoln City

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
WatfordWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
WatfordFinish bottom 3	25.1%	17.7%	-7.4 pp
WatfordAutomatic promotion	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	49.5%	57.0%	+7.5 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,903 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 1, 11:15 AM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · PEC Zwolle: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	27.9%	18.8%	-9.1 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	26.3%	35.2%	+8.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,342 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 3:15 PM UTC

Celta Vigo vs Real Betis

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Real Betis: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Celta VigoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Celta VigoFinish top 4	2.7%	4.3%	+1.6 pp
Celta VigoFinish bottom 3	6.8%	3.8%	-2.9 pp
Real BetisWin league	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Real BetisFinish top 4	48.7%	39.8%	-8.9 pp
Real BetisFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,163 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Juventus

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.9%	28.2%	-13.7 pp
JuventusWin league	5.9%	3.2%	-2.7 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	49.8%	36.1%	-13.6 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,713 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

Lincoln City vs Burnley

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	49.5%	36.3%	-13.2 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
BurnleyWin league	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
BurnleyFinish bottom 3	2.2%	4.0%	+1.8 pp
BurnleyAutomatic promotion	1.5%	0.9%	-0.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,270 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · RB Leipzig: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
RB LeipzigWin league	1.1%	1.3%	+0.3 pp
RB LeipzigFinish top 4	41.7%	47.6%	+5.9 pp
RB LeipzigFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
SV ElversbergWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SV ElversbergFinish top 4	3.6%	2.6%	-1.1 pp
SV ElversbergFinish bottom 2	6.2%	7.6%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,471 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 30, 8:15 PM UTC

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	51.6%	34.7%	-16.9 pp
Sporting CPWin league	29.8%	18.8%	-11.0 pp
Sporting CPFinish top 2	62.1%	48.7%	-13.4 pp
Sporting CPFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 793 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · VfB Stuttgart: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bayer LeverkusenWin league	6.9%	8.9%	+2.0 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish top 4	81.6%	87.2%	+5.6 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VfB StuttgartWin league	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish top 4	26.4%	20.4%	-6.0 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish bottom 2	0.5%	0.6%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,470 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 1, 3:30 PM UTC

Arouca vs C.D. Nacional

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · C.D. Nacional: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AroucaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AroucaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
AroucaFinish bottom 2	0.8%	0.3%	-0.5 pp
C.D. NacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish bottom 2	40.8%	47.9%	+7.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,937 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Lyon vs Angers

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Angers: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LyonWin league	3.9%	4.7%	+0.7 pp
LyonFinish top 3	39.8%	44.3%	+4.5 pp
LyonFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
AngersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AngersFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AngersFinish bottom 2	39.2%	43.2%	+4.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,781 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	40.9%	28.4%	-12.5 pp
RB LeipzigWin league	1.1%	0.2%	-0.9 pp
RB LeipzigFinish top 4	41.7%	30.6%	-11.0 pp
RB LeipzigFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.3%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,444 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

AC Milan vs Bologna

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · AC Milan: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AC MilanWin league	6.2%	8.4%	+2.2 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	50.6%	58.3%	+7.8 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
BolognaWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
BolognaFinish top 4	1.7%	0.9%	-0.8 pp
BolognaFinish bottom 3	8.5%	10.8%	+2.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,065 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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