2026 projections
Brasileirão Série A
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Lib. places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | #13 | 77.3 | 54 | 26 | 100% | 57% | — |
| 2Palmeiras | #15 | 76.5 | 53 | 26 | >99% | 42% | — |
| 3Fluminense | #77 | 62.5 | 45 | 26 | 86% | <1% | — |
| 4Athletico-PR | #93 | 62.4 | 45 | 26 | 88% | <1% | — |
| 5Cruzeiro | #75 | 59.8 | 42 | 26 | 72% | <1% | — |
| 6Bahia | #120 | 58.5 | 43 | 26 | 59% | <1% | — |
| 7Atlético-MG | #94 | 55.4 | 36 | 25 | 37% | — | <1% |
| 8Red Bull Bragantino | #136 | 51.8 | 35 | 25 | 14% | — | 1% |
| 9Botafogo | #78 | 51.6 | 31 | 25 | 14% | — | 3% |
| 10São Paulo | #109 | 51.2 | 33 | 25 | 12% | — | 2% |
| 11Coritiba | #222 | 50.3 | 37 | 26 | 8% | — | 3% |
| 12Santos | #126 | 48.4 | 32 | 25 | 4% | — | 9% |
| 13Corinthians | #119 | 47.4 | 32 | 26 | 2% | — | 11% |
| 14Vitória | #256 | 46.1 | 32 | 26 | 1% | — | 16% |
| 15Grêmio | #130 | 45.1 | 28 | 25 | 1% | — | 24% |
| 16Mirassol | #125 | 44.6 | 28 | 26 | <1% | — | 27% |
| 17Vasco da Gama | #167 | 41.7 | 25 | 25 | <1% | — | 52% |
| 18Internacional | #150 | 40.6 | 25 | 26 | <1% | — | 63% |
| 19Remo | #258 | 36.3 | 23 | 26 | — | — | 89% |
| 20Chapecoense | #387 | 28.5 | 17 | 25 | — | — | >99% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.