2026 projections
Brasileirão Série A
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Lib. places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | #15 | 80.8 | 67 | 31 | 100% | 58% | — |
| 2Palmeiras | #14 | 80.1 | 66 | 31 | 100% | 42% | — |
| 3Athletico-PR | #93 | 62.9 | 53 | 31 | 93% | — | — |
| 4Cruzeiro | #72 | 62.1 | 51 | 31 | 89% | — | — |
| 5Fluminense | #79 | 61.7 | 51 | 31 | 86% | — | — |
| 6Atlético-MG | #90 | 59.3 | 50 | 31 | 63% | — | — |
| 7Bahia | #122 | 58.1 | 49 | 31 | 45% | — | — |
| 8Santos | #107 | 55 | 45 | 31 | 17% | — | — |
| 9São Paulo | #118 | 51.3 | 42 | 31 | 4% | — | <1% |
| 10Red Bull Bragantino | #126 | 50.9 | 41 | 31 | 2% | — | <1% |
| 11Botafogo | #97 | 49 | 39 | 31 | <1% | — | 1% |
| 12Coritiba | #279 | 46.2 | 39 | 31 | <1% | — | 8% |
| 13Vasco da Gama | #117 | 46 | 35 | 30 | <1% | — | 10% |
| 14Vitória | #229 | 45.7 | 37 | 31 | <1% | — | 9% |
| 15Mirassol | #114 | 45.6 | 36 | 31 | <1% | — | 12% |
| 16Corinthians | #139 | 42.2 | 33 | 31 | — | — | 38% |
| 17Internacional | #158 | 41.6 | 32 | 31 | — | — | 51% |
| 18Grêmio | #142 | 39.6 | 31 | 31 | — | — | 72% |
| 19Remo | #273 | 33.3 | 26 | 31 | — | — | 99% |
| 20Chapecoense | #436 | 24.5 | 18 | 30 | — | — | 100% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.