2026 projections
Brasileirão Série A
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Lib. places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | #18 | 83.9 | 76 | 34 | 100% | 83% | — |
| 2Palmeiras | #15 | 80.9 | 73 | 34 | 100% | 17% | — |
| 3Cruzeiro | #76 | 66.1 | 60 | 34 | 100% | — | — |
| 4Fluminense | #85 | 62.8 | 57 | 34 | 99% | — | — |
| 5Athletico-PR | #123 | 59.4 | 54 | 34 | 87% | — | — |
| 6Bahia | #142 | 58.7 | 53 | 34 | 70% | — | — |
| 7Atlético-MG | #110 | 55.8 | 50 | 34 | 33% | — | — |
| 8Santos | #126 | 53.1 | 47 | 34 | 5% | — | — |
| 9Red Bull Bragantino | #143 | 52.6 | 47 | 34 | 5% | — | — |
| 10São Paulo | #144 | 49.6 | 44 | 34 | <1% | — | — |
| 11Vasco da Gama | #141 | 48.3 | 41 | 33 | <1% | — | 2% |
| 12Botafogo | #112 | 47.6 | 42 | 34 | — | — | 2% |
| 13Coritiba | #315 | 45.3 | 42 | 34 | <1% | — | 7% |
| 14Mirassol | #148 | 45.2 | 40 | 34 | — | — | 15% |
| 15Internacional | #169 | 43.4 | 38 | 34 | — | — | 35% |
| 16Vitória | #293 | 42.6 | 38 | 34 | — | — | 45% |
| 17Corinthians | #155 | 42.6 | 37 | 34 | — | — | 44% |
| 18Grêmio | #153 | 42.4 | 37 | 34 | — | — | 50% |
| 19Remo | #323 | 33.8 | 29 | 34 | — | — | >99% |
| 20Chapecoense | #470 | 24.7 | 21 | 33 | — | — | 100% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.