2026 projections
Brasileirão Série A
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Lib. places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | #14 | 79 | 60 | 28 | 100% | 66% | — |
| 2Palmeiras | #15 | 76.9 | 57 | 28 | 100% | 33% | — |
| 3Athletico-PR | #91 | 63.4 | 49 | 28 | 93% | <1% | — |
| 4Fluminense | #79 | 63.2 | 48 | 28 | 91% | <1% | — |
| 5Cruzeiro | #72 | 60.3 | 45 | 28 | 77% | <1% | — |
| 6Bahia | #119 | 58.5 | 46 | 28 | 59% | — | — |
| 7Atlético-MG | #95 | 55.7 | 40 | 27 | 36% | — | <1% |
| 8Santos | #120 | 51.9 | 38 | 27 | 11% | — | 1% |
| 9São Paulo | #112 | 51.8 | 36 | 27 | 12% | — | 1% |
| 10Red Bull Bragantino | #130 | 51.4 | 36 | 27 | 10% | — | 1% |
| 11Botafogo | #84 | 50.6 | 35 | 28 | 6% | — | 2% |
| 12Coritiba | #252 | 48.3 | 38 | 28 | 2% | — | 5% |
| 13Vasco da Gama | #123 | 45.6 | 31 | 27 | <1% | — | 19% |
| 14Mirassol | #121 | 45.3 | 32 | 28 | <1% | — | 22% |
| 15Corinthians | #124 | 45 | 32 | 28 | <1% | — | 23% |
| 16Vitória | #262 | 44.9 | 33 | 28 | <1% | — | 22% |
| 17Grêmio | #136 | 42.3 | 29 | 28 | <1% | — | 47% |
| 18Internacional | #153 | 41.3 | 28 | 28 | <1% | — | 59% |
| 19Remo | #278 | 33.8 | 23 | 28 | — | — | 97% |
| 20Chapecoense | #393 | 27.8 | 18 | 27 | — | — | >99% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.