2026-27 projections
Eredivisie
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | #28 | 75.3 | 19 | 9 | 84% | 98% | 54% | — | — |
| 2Feyenoord Rotterdam | #56 | 72.7 | 23 | 9 | 70% | 96% | 34% | — | — |
| 3Ajax Amsterdam | #82 | 64.1 | 18 | 9 | 22% | 73% | 6% | <1% | — |
| 4AZ Alkmaar | #121 | 62.5 | 20 | 9 | 15% | 64% | 4% | <1% | — |
| 5FC Twente | #125 | 59.5 | 17 | 9 | 8% | 45% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 6FC Utrecht | #261 | 48.8 | 11 | 9 | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7FC Groningen | #332 | 48.4 | 14 | 9 | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 8Heerenveen | #305 | 46.8 | 12 | 9 | <1% | 4% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 9NEC Nijmegen | #243 | 46.2 | 10 | 9 | <1% | 4% | — | 1% | 1% |
| 10Fortuna Sittard | #452 | 44.5 | 15 | 9 | <1% | 2% | — | 3% | 2% |
| 11Go Ahead Eagles | #343 | 44.3 | 11 | 9 | <1% | 2% | — | 3% | 2% |
| 12Excelsior | #435 | 40.5 | 11 | 9 | <1% | <1% | — | 6% | 6% |
| 13Sparta Rotterdam | #433 | 37.9 | 9 | 9 | — | <1% | — | 9% | 12% |
| 14Telstar | #456 | 35 | 6 | 9 | — | <1% | — | 14% | 21% |
| 15ADO Den Haag | — | 32.8 | 6 | 9 | — | <1% | — | 16% | 32% |
| 16PEC Zwolle | #512 | 32.5 | 7 | 9 | — | <1% | — | 18% | 35% |
| 17SC Cambuur | #534 | 32.4 | 9 | 9 | — | — | — | 18% | 35% |
| 18Willem II | #551 | 23 | 2 | 9 | — | — | — | 9% | 83% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.