2026-27 projections
Primeira Liga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | #25 | 77.4 | 24 | 8 | 72% | >99% | 40% | — | — |
| 2Benfica | #12 | 76.3 | 19 | 8 | 66% | >99% | 32% | — | — |
| 3Sporting CP | #10 | 75.4 | 18 | 8 | 61% | >99% | 28% | — | — |
| 4Braga | #81 | 56 | 11 | 8 | <1% | 67% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Santa Clara | #287 | 51.1 | 18 | 8 | <1% | 39% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6Gil Vicente | #285 | 47.8 | 14 | 8 | <1% | 23% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Académico de Viseu | — | 47.4 | 14 | 8 | <1% | 21% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 8Arouca | #320 | 46.9 | 14 | 8 | <1% | 20% | — | 1% | 1% |
| 9Alverca | #351 | 43.5 | 11 | 8 | <1% | 10% | — | 3% | 4% |
| 10FC Famalicao | #216 | 43.4 | 7 | 8 | — | 10% | — | 3% | 3% |
| 11Vitória de Guimaraes | #299 | 39.1 | 5 | 8 | — | 3% | — | 7% | 11% |
| 12Estrela | #451 | 37.6 | 10 | 8 | — | 2% | — | 9% | 15% |
| 13Moreirense | #417 | 37.5 | 8 | 8 | — | 2% | — | 10% | 15% |
| 14Maritimo | #434 | 36.3 | 8 | 8 | — | 2% | — | 10% | 20% |
| 15Rio Ave | #459 | 34.5 | 7 | 8 | — | <1% | — | 13% | 26% |
| 16Estoril | #360 | 33.1 | 2 | 8 | — | <1% | — | 13% | 34% |
| 17C.D. Nacional | #455 | 30.9 | 4 | 8 | — | <1% | — | 15% | 46% |
| 18Casa Pia | #502 | 29.2 | 4 | 8 | — | <1% | — | 14% | 55% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.