2026-27 projections
Primeira Liga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | #23 | 77.1 | 21 | 7 | 76% | >99% | 45% | — | — |
| 2Benfica | #11 | 74.9 | 16 | 7 | 64% | >99% | 29% | — | — |
| 3Sporting CP | #10 | 73.6 | 15 | 7 | 55% | >99% | 25% | — | — |
| 4Braga | #70 | 60.4 | 11 | 6 | 5% | 85% | 1% | — | <1% |
| 5Santa Clara | #297 | 49.5 | 15 | 7 | <1% | 32% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6FC Famalicao | #204 | 46.3 | 7 | 7 | <1% | 20% | — | 1% | 2% |
| 7Arouca | #331 | 45.6 | 11 | 7 | <1% | 17% | — | 2% | 3% |
| 8Académico de Viseu | — | 45.4 | 11 | 7 | <1% | 16% | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| 9Gil Vicente | #314 | 43.2 | 8 | 6 | — | 10% | — | 4% | 5% |
| 10Alverca | #392 | 39.9 | 8 | 7 | — | 5% | — | 6% | 10% |
| 11Vitória de Guimaraes | #300 | 39.8 | 5 | 7 | — | 5% | — | 6% | 11% |
| 12Moreirense | #414 | 39.3 | 8 | 7 | <1% | 4% | — | 7% | 11% |
| 13Estrela | #448 | 38.7 | 10 | 7 | <1% | 3% | — | 7% | 13% |
| 14Maritimo | #447 | 36.7 | 8 | 7 | — | 2% | — | 10% | 20% |
| 15Estoril | #361 | 34.8 | 2 | 7 | — | 1% | — | 12% | 28% |
| 16Rio Ave | #468 | 32.5 | 4 | 7 | — | <1% | — | 14% | 39% |
| 17C.D. Nacional | #452 | 32.4 | 4 | 7 | — | <1% | — | 13% | 40% |
| 18Casa Pia | #498 | 30.7 | 4 | 7 | — | <1% | — | 14% | 50% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.