2026-27 projections
Primeira Liga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting CP | #10 | 76.9 | 13 | 5 | 71% | >99% | 40% | — | — |
| 2Benfica | #12 | 75.6 | 13 | 5 | 64% | >99% | 33% | — | — |
| 3FC Porto | #27 | 74 | 15 | 5 | 55% | >99% | 24% | — | — |
| 4Braga | #72 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 10% | 91% | 3% | <1% | — |
| 5Santa Clara | #325 | 47.3 | 11 | 5 | <1% | 25% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 6Arouca | #353 | 46.4 | 10 | 5 | <1% | 22% | — | 2% | 3% |
| 7Gil Vicente | #318 | 44.8 | 7 | 4 | <1% | 16% | — | 2% | 3% |
| 8FC Famalicao | #243 | 43.5 | 3 | 5 | <1% | 12% | — | 3% | 5% |
| 9Vitória de Guimaraes | #299 | 42.7 | 4 | 5 | — | 11% | — | 4% | 6% |
| 10Académico de Viseu | — | 39.2 | 5 | 5 | <1% | 5% | — | 7% | 13% |
| 11Maritimo | — | 38.6 | 7 | 5 | <1% | 4% | — | 9% | 15% |
| 12Estrela | #455 | 38.2 | 6 | 4 | <1% | 4% | — | 9% | 16% |
| 13Estoril | #360 | 38 | 2 | 5 | <1% | 4% | — | 8% | 18% |
| 14Moreirense | #437 | 37.3 | 4 | 5 | <1% | 3% | — | 9% | 18% |
| 15C.D. Nacional | #421 | 37.1 | 4 | 5 | — | 3% | — | 9% | 20% |
| 16Alverca | #423 | 35.6 | 2 | 5 | — | 2% | — | 11% | 26% |
| 17Rio Ave | #469 | 34.4 | 3 | 5 | — | 1% | — | 12% | 31% |
| 18Casa Pia | #501 | 29.3 | 1 | 5 | — | <1% | — | 12% | 58% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.