2026-27 projections

Primeira Liga

Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.

As of Nov 9, 2026

What these probabilities include

Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.

Club	World	Proj. pts	Pts	GP	UCL places*	Europe places*	Win league	Releg. playoff	Relegated
1FC Porto	#21	80.8	33	11	85%	>99%	55%	—	—
2Benfica	#11	78.4	28	11	75%	>99%	33%	—	—
3Sporting CP	#13	73.2	24	11	39%	>99%	12%	—	—
4Braga	#78	56.8	17	11	<1%	69%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5Santa Clara	#298	50.6	21	11	<1%	32%	—	<1%	<1%
6Académico de Viseu	—	50.6	20	11	<1%	31%	—	<1%	<1%
7Arouca	#327	49.1	20	11	<1%	24%	—	<1%	<1%
8Gil Vicente	#297	48.5	18	11	—	21%	—	<1%	<1%
9FC Famalicao	#215	45.4	13	11	<1%	11%	—	1%	<1%
10Moreirense	#398	41.6	14	11	—	4%	—	3%	4%
11Vitória de Guimaraes	#279	40.9	9	11	—	4%	—	4%	5%
12Alverca	#362	40.4	12	11	—	3%	—	5%	5%
13C.D. Nacional	#443	34.4	10	11	—	<1%	—	13%	22%
14Estrela	#466	34	10	11	—	<1%	—	12%	25%
15Casa Pia	#504	31.2	8	11	—	<1%	—	16%	39%
16Maritimo	#524	30.6	8	10	—	<1%	—	15%	43%
17Rio Ave	#488	30.6	7	11	—	<1%	—	15%	43%
18Estoril	#380	30.3	2	10	—	<1%	—	14%	46%

Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.