2026-27 projections
Serie A
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internazionale | #8 | 81.2 | 19 | 7 | 95% | 99% | 64% | — |
| 2AS Roma | #27 | 71.4 | 17 | 7 | 71% | 94% | 15% | — |
| 3AC Milan | #37 | 67 | 15 | 7 | 52% | 84% | 7% | <1% |
| 4Juventus | #23 | 66.4 | 11 | 7 | 49% | 84% | 5% | <1% |
| 5Lazio | #76 | 63.8 | 19 | 7 | 37% | 74% | 4% | <1% |
| 6Como | #47 | 63.5 | 14 | 7 | 36% | 73% | 3% | <1% |
| 7Napoli | #40 | 61.5 | 10 | 7 | 28% | 65% | 1% | <1% |
| 8Atalanta | #38 | 60.1 | 9 | 7 | 22% | 59% | 1% | <1% |
| 9Frosinone | #161 | 50.2 | 13 | 7 | 3% | 17% | <1% | 5% |
| 10Bologna | #94 | 48 | 5 | 7 | 2% | 11% | <1% | 9% |
| 11Fiorentina | #83 | 47 | 4 | 7 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 12% |
| 12Sassuolo | #131 | 46.9 | 8 | 7 | 1% | 9% | <1% | 11% |
| 13Torino | #187 | 46.4 | 10 | 7 | 1% | 8% | <1% | 11% |
| 14Cagliari | #250 | 45.3 | 13 | 7 | <1% | 6% | <1% | 14% |
| 15Monza | #191 | 42.2 | 7 | 7 | <1% | 3% | — | 25% |
| 16Genoa | #192 | 40.5 | 4 | 7 | <1% | 2% | — | 31% |
| 17Venezia | #155 | 40.2 | 3 | 7 | <1% | 2% | — | 33% |
| 18Lecce | #316 | 38.1 | 9 | 7 | <1% | <1% | — | 43% |
| 19Udinese | #211 | 37.8 | 4 | 7 | <1% | <1% | — | 44% |
| 20Parma | #291 | 34.5 | 4 | 7 | <1% | <1% | — | 61% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.