2026-27 projections
Serie A
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internazionale | #8 | 79.4 | 13 | 5 | 93% | 99% | 56% | — |
| 2AS Roma | #27 | 71.3 | 13 | 5 | 72% | 93% | 16% | — |
| 3Juventus | #22 | 69.8 | 10 | 5 | 67% | 91% | 13% | — |
| 4AC Milan | #39 | 64.7 | 11 | 5 | 44% | 77% | 6% | <1% |
| 5Como | #48 | 62.1 | 10 | 5 | 31% | 67% | 3% | <1% |
| 6Napoli | #41 | 61.7 | 7 | 5 | 30% | 66% | 2% | <1% |
| 7Atalanta | #40 | 60.2 | 6 | 5 | 24% | 60% | 2% | <1% |
| 8Lazio | #77 | 59.7 | 13 | 5 | 22% | 57% | 2% | <1% |
| 9Frosinone | #147 | 50.3 | 10 | 5 | 4% | 18% | <1% | 6% |
| 10Fiorentina | #76 | 50.3 | 4 | 5 | 4% | 19% | <1% | 6% |
| 11Cagliari | #222 | 48.2 | 12 | 5 | 2% | 12% | <1% | 8% |
| 12Sassuolo | #132 | 48.2 | 7 | 5 | 3% | 14% | <1% | 9% |
| 13Bologna | #86 | 47.5 | 2 | 5 | 2% | 11% | <1% | 10% |
| 14Udinese | #192 | 42 | 4 | 5 | <1% | 4% | <1% | 26% |
| 15Torino | #208 | 41.9 | 4 | 5 | <1% | 4% | — | 26% |
| 16Monza | #202 | 41.2 | 4 | 5 | <1% | 3% | — | 29% |
| 17Genoa | #194 | 39 | 1 | 5 | <1% | 2% | — | 38% |
| 18Venezia | #162 | 38.7 | 0 | 5 | <1% | 2% | <1% | 40% |
| 19Parma | #272 | 37.5 | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | — | 45% |
| 20Lecce | #365 | 35.7 | 6 | 5 | <1% | <1% | — | 55% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.