2026-27 projections
Serie A
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internazionale | #8 | 83.2 | 28 | 11 | 97% | >99% | 65% | — |
| 2AS Roma | #24 | 75.2 | 27 | 11 | 80% | 97% | 18% | — |
| 3Como | #34 | 69.8 | 23 | 11 | 56% | 90% | 5% | — |
| 4AC Milan | #39 | 68.5 | 24 | 11 | 50% | 87% | 4% | <1% |
| 5Lazio | #67 | 68.4 | 29 | 11 | 49% | 88% | 5% | — |
| 6Juventus | #25 | 66.1 | 18 | 11 | 37% | 81% | 2% | — |
| 7Napoli | #41 | 60.7 | 15 | 11 | 15% | 57% | <1% | <1% |
| 8Atalanta | #50 | 56.2 | 14 | 11 | 6% | 34% | <1% | <1% |
| 9Bologna | #81 | 55.4 | 17 | 11 | 5% | 29% | <1% | <1% |
| 10Frosinone | #146 | 52.7 | 20 | 11 | 3% | 19% | <1% | 1% |
| 11Fiorentina | #80 | 48.3 | 9 | 11 | <1% | 8% | — | 5% |
| 12Genoa | #174 | 45.9 | 13 | 11 | <1% | 4% | — | 7% |
| 13Torino | #199 | 44.1 | 14 | 11 | <1% | 2% | — | 10% |
| 14Cagliari | #274 | 43.9 | 16 | 11 | <1% | 2% | — | 11% |
| 15Sassuolo | #186 | 40.2 | 8 | 11 | <1% | <1% | — | 25% |
| 16Venezia | #176 | 38.5 | 6 | 11 | <1% | <1% | — | 32% |
| 17Monza | #217 | 36.1 | 7 | 11 | — | <1% | — | 44% |
| 18Parma | #286 | 35.6 | 8 | 11 | — | <1% | — | 48% |
| 19Lecce | #355 | 33.9 | 10 | 11 | — | <1% | — | 56% |
| 20Udinese | #241 | 33.5 | 5 | 11 | <1% | <1% | — | 58% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.