2026-27 projections
La Liga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | #3 | 91.3 | 33 | 12 | >99% | 100% | 67% | — |
| 2Real Madrid | #6 | 86 | 30 | 12 | >99% | 100% | 29% | — |
| 3Atlético Madrid | #17 | 76.3 | 28 | 12 | 94% | >99% | 4% | — |
| 4Real Betis | #48 | 66.2 | 26 | 12 | 57% | 94% | <1% | — |
| 5Real Sociedad | #65 | 59.5 | 22 | 12 | 20% | 75% | <1% | <1% |
| 6Athletic Club | #52 | 57.1 | 16 | 11 | 14% | 65% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Villarreal | #44 | 54.9 | 15 | 12 | 9% | 53% | — | 1% |
| 8Sevilla | #121 | 50.9 | 18 | 12 | 3% | 31% | — | 3% |
| 9Rayo Vallecano | #106 | 46.6 | 12 | 11 | 1% | 15% | — | 9% |
| 10Celta Vigo | #101 | 45 | 13 | 12 | <1% | 11% | — | 12% |
| 11Alavés | #130 | 44.9 | 13 | 12 | <1% | 10% | — | 13% |
| 12Deportivo | #157 | 44.8 | 15 | 12 | <1% | 10% | — | 13% |
| 13Levante | #136 | 43.5 | 11 | 12 | <1% | 8% | — | 18% |
| 14Osasuna | #120 | 43.4 | 12 | 12 | <1% | 7% | — | 18% |
| 15Espanyol | #162 | 42.6 | 12 | 12 | <1% | 6% | — | 21% |
| 16Racing Santander | #179 | 42.3 | 14 | 12 | <1% | 6% | — | 23% |
| 17Valencia | #140 | 41 | 9 | 12 | <1% | 3% | — | 27% |
| 18Elche | #184 | 40.4 | 10 | 12 | <1% | 3% | — | 30% |
| 19Getafe | #223 | 39.8 | 12 | 12 | <1% | 2% | — | 33% |
| 20Málaga | #239 | 31.4 | 5 | 12 | — | <1% | — | 77% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.