2026-27 projections
La Liga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | #3 | 91 | 27 | 9 | >99% | 100% | 76% | — |
| 2Real Madrid | #7 | 81 | 21 | 9 | 98% | >99% | 17% | — |
| 3Atlético Madrid | #22 | 76.1 | 22 | 9 | 93% | >99% | 6% | — |
| 4Real Betis | #59 | 64 | 19 | 9 | 48% | 86% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Real Sociedad | #84 | 57.1 | 16 | 9 | 17% | 60% | <1% | <1% |
| 6Athletic Club | #67 | 55.8 | 9 | 7 | 14% | 55% | <1% | 1% |
| 7Villarreal | #50 | 55.4 | 9 | 9 | 13% | 53% | — | 1% |
| 8Sevilla | #153 | 51.3 | 14 | 9 | 5% | 33% | — | 3% |
| 9Rayo Vallecano | #112 | 49.2 | 9 | 8 | 4% | 24% | — | 7% |
| 10Celta Vigo | #103 | 48.5 | 11 | 9 | 3% | 22% | — | 7% |
| 11Alavés | #134 | 47.7 | 11 | 9 | 2% | 18% | — | 8% |
| 12Osasuna | #162 | 45.6 | 11 | 9 | 1% | 12% | — | 13% |
| 13Levante | #171 | 43.3 | 7 | 8 | <1% | 8% | — | 21% |
| 14Deportivo | #206 | 42.7 | 11 | 9 | <1% | 6% | — | 22% |
| 15Valencia | #151 | 42.1 | 6 | 9 | <1% | 6% | — | 24% |
| 16Espanyol | #188 | 42 | 8 | 9 | <1% | 6% | — | 25% |
| 17Getafe | #230 | 41.1 | 9 | 9 | <1% | 4% | — | 28% |
| 18Elche | #215 | 40.5 | 7 | 9 | <1% | 4% | — | 32% |
| 19Racing Santander | #212 | 39.5 | 8 | 9 | <1% | 4% | — | 37% |
| 20Málaga | #275 | 32.9 | 4 | 9 | <1% | <1% | — | 70% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.