2026-27 projections
La Liga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | #5 | 85.6 | 12 | 4 | 99% | >99% | 65% | — |
| 2Real Madrid | #7 | 79.5 | 9 | 4 | 96% | 99% | 30% | — |
| 3Atlético Madrid | #26 | 67.3 | 7 | 4 | 68% | 90% | 4% | <1% |
| 4Real Betis | #66 | 60.3 | 9 | 4 | 36% | 70% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Athletic Club | #70 | 57.5 | 6 | 4 | 25% | 59% | <1% | 2% |
| 6Villarreal | #54 | 55.4 | 2 | 4 | 19% | 50% | <1% | 3% |
| 7Real Sociedad | #86 | 53.5 | 7 | 5 | 13% | 40% | <1% | 4% |
| 8Alavés | #135 | 52.6 | 10 | 4 | 11% | 37% | <1% | 5% |
| 9Osasuna | #144 | 49.3 | 7 | 4 | 6% | 24% | <1% | 10% |
| 10Rayo Vallecano | #122 | 48.7 | 4 | 4 | 6% | 22% | — | 12% |
| 11Sevilla | #179 | 48.4 | 7 | 4 | 5% | 21% | <1% | 12% |
| 12Celta Vigo | #101 | 47.5 | 3 | 5 | 4% | 19% | <1% | 14% |
| 13Levante | #165 | 46.4 | 5 | 4 | 3% | 16% | — | 17% |
| 14Deportivo | #211 | 46 | 8 | 4 | 3% | 14% | — | 18% |
| 15Espanyol | #186 | 43.9 | 4 | 4 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 25% |
| 16Racing Santander | #176 | 43.7 | 4 | 4 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 26% |
| 17Valencia | #169 | 42.9 | 1 | 4 | 1% | 8% | — | 29% |
| 18Getafe | #230 | 42.4 | 4 | 4 | <1% | 6% | — | 30% |
| 19Málaga | #242 | 38.9 | 2 | 4 | <1% | 3% | — | 47% |
| 20Elche | #226 | 38.8 | 1 | 4 | <1% | 3% | — | 47% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.