2026-27 projections
La Liga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Tied teams use a head-to-head points/GD mini-table, then overall GD/GF. Recursive subgroup rules, disciplinary criteria and special title/relegation deciding matches remain approximations.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | #5 | 88.4 | 21 | 7 | >99% | >99% | 72% | — |
| 2Real Madrid | #7 | 80 | 15 | 7 | 97% | >99% | 22% | — |
| 3Atlético Madrid | #25 | 72.9 | 16 | 7 | 86% | 98% | 6% | — |
| 4Real Betis | #63 | 63.8 | 16 | 7 | 49% | 84% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Villarreal | #56 | 56.3 | 8 | 7 | 17% | 55% | <1% | 2% |
| 6Athletic Club | #69 | 56 | 8 | 6 | 17% | 53% | <1% | 2% |
| 7Real Sociedad | #92 | 54 | 10 | 7 | 11% | 44% | <1% | 3% |
| 8Sevilla | #178 | 51.3 | 13 | 7 | 6% | 31% | — | 5% |
| 9Alavés | #144 | 50 | 11 | 7 | 4% | 27% | — | 6% |
| 10Rayo Vallecano | #122 | 49.3 | 8 | 7 | 4% | 25% | — | 8% |
| 11Celta Vigo | #96 | 48.5 | 7 | 7 | 3% | 21% | — | 9% |
| 12Osasuna | #177 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 1% | 11% | — | 18% |
| 13Levante | #167 | 44.9 | 5 | 6 | 2% | 12% | — | 20% |
| 14Deportivo | #221 | 43.9 | 10 | 7 | <1% | 9% | — | 22% |
| 15Espanyol | #193 | 43.1 | 7 | 7 | <1% | 8% | — | 25% |
| 16Getafe | #229 | 42.4 | 8 | 7 | <1% | 6% | — | 26% |
| 17Valencia | #174 | 42.1 | 4 | 7 | <1% | 6% | — | 29% |
| 18Racing Santander | #215 | 41.3 | 7 | 7 | <1% | 6% | — | 34% |
| 19Elche | #220 | 40.9 | 5 | 7 | <1% | 5% | — | 34% |
| 20Málaga | #266 | 36.1 | 3 | 7 | <1% | 1% | — | 57% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.