2026-27 projections
EFL Championship
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- 2026–27 promotion: top two automatic; 5th–8th contest single-leg eliminators, then join 3rd/4th in two-leg semifinals and a neutral final. Playoff strengths retain each simulation's season uncertainty.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Promoted | Auto promo | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | #57 | 88.3 | 11 | 6 | 29% | 77% | 67% | 47% | — |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | #105 | 79.8 | 8 | 5 | 52% | 45% | 33% | 15% | <1% |
| 3Southampton | #139 | 77.9 | 11 | 6 | 53% | 38% | 27% | 12% | <1% |
| 4Middlesbrough | #168 | 76.8 | 10 | 5 | 53% | 34% | 23% | 10% | <1% |
| 5West Bromwich Albion | #273 | 70.2 | 13 | 6 | 45% | 15% | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 6Millwall | #233 | 70.2 | 9 | 5 | 46% | 15% | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 7Norwich City | #223 | 70 | 9 | 6 | 44% | 15% | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 8Sheffield United | #225 | 68.5 | 9 | 6 | 41% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 9Burnley | #183 | 67.5 | 3 | 6 | 39% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 10Swansea City | #290 | 66.9 | 11 | 6 | 36% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 11Bristol City | #298 | 66.6 | 10 | 5 | 35% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| 12Wrexham | #262 | 64.5 | 7 | 6 | 29% | 6% | 3% | <1% | 3% |
| 13Birmingham City | #338 | 61 | 7 | 6 | 19% | 3% | 1% | <1% | 6% |
| 14Queens Park Rangers | #377 | 60.3 | 11 | 6 | 17% | 3% | 1% | <1% | 7% |
| 15Watford | #383 | 58.7 | 8 | 6 | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 9% |
| 16Stoke City | #372 | 58 | 7 | 6 | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 10% |
| 17Charlton Athletic | #438 | 57 | 11 | 6 | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 11% |
| 18Derby County | #346 | 56.5 | 4 | 6 | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 19Blackburn Rovers | #390 | 54.5 | 5 | 6 | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 17% |
| 20Portsmouth | #422 | 53.1 | 6 | 5 | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 22% |
| 21Preston North End | #433 | 48.7 | 3 | 6 | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | 37% |
| 22Lincoln City | — | 48.1 | 5 | 5 | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | 41% |
| 23Cardiff City | #459 | 47.8 | 4 | 6 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 40% |
| 24Bolton Wanderers | — | 40.2 | 4 | 6 | <1% | — | — | — | 73% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.