2026-27 projections
EFL Championship
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- 2026–27 promotion: top two automatic; 5th–8th contest single-leg eliminators, then join 3rd/4th in two-leg semifinals and a neutral final. Playoff strengths retain each simulation's season uncertainty.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Promoted | Auto promo | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | #45 | 92.5 | 22 | 11 | 17% | 89% | 83% | 65% | — |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | #110 | 79.8 | 17 | 10 | 58% | 45% | 30% | 10% | <1% |
| 3Southampton | #127 | 79 | 21 | 11 | 57% | 41% | 28% | 10% | <1% |
| 4Middlesbrough | #157 | 78.7 | 22 | 11 | 60% | 37% | 25% | 8% | <1% |
| 5Swansea City | #257 | 73.2 | 23 | 11 | 58% | 18% | 10% | 3% | <1% |
| 6Birmingham City | #264 | 70 | 20 | 11 | 50% | 12% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 7West Bromwich Albion | #267 | 69.5 | 20 | 11 | 47% | 12% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 8Sheffield United | #214 | 67 | 15 | 11 | 39% | 9% | 3% | <1% | 1% |
| 9Millwall | #236 | 66.2 | 15 | 11 | 36% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 1% |
| 10Stoke City | #345 | 64.7 | 19 | 11 | 29% | 4% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
| 11Burnley | #175 | 64.5 | 8 | 11 | 31% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
| 12Wrexham | #272 | 63.5 | 14 | 11 | 27% | 5% | 1% | <1% | 3% |
| 13Queens Park Rangers | #363 | 61.3 | 17 | 11 | 20% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 5% |
| 14Norwich City | #251 | 59.9 | 9 | 11 | 17% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 7% |
| 15Blackburn Rovers | #369 | 59 | 15 | 11 | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 7% |
| 16Bristol City | #340 | 59 | 14 | 11 | 13% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 7% |
| 17Portsmouth | #401 | 56.5 | 14 | 10 | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 18Bolton Wanderers | #458 | 53.3 | 14 | 11 | 5% | <1% | <1% | — | 22% |
| 19Charlton Athletic | #457 | 52.6 | 14 | 11 | 3% | <1% | <1% | — | 23% |
| 20Watford | #418 | 52.4 | 11 | 11 | 4% | <1% | <1% | — | 24% |
| 21Cardiff City | #414 | 51.5 | 11 | 11 | 3% | <1% | <1% | — | 27% |
| 22Derby County | #374 | 50.1 | 6 | 11 | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | 33% |
| 23Lincoln City | #515 | 47 | 12 | 11 | 1% | <1% | <1% | — | 49% |
| 24Preston North End | #469 | 41.3 | 4 | 11 | <1% | <1% | — | — | 72% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.