2026-27 projections
EFL Championship
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- 2026–27 promotion: top two automatic; 5th–8th contest single-leg eliminators, then join 3rd/4th in two-leg semifinals and a neutral final. Playoff strengths retain each simulation's season uncertainty.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Promoted | Auto promo | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | #57 | 83.2 | 23 | 15 | 45% | 64% | 49% | 28% | — |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | #109 | 81.6 | 28 | 15 | 52% | 51% | 38% | 20% | <1% |
| 3Southampton | #117 | 80.5 | 28 | 15 | 55% | 47% | 35% | 18% | — |
| 4Middlesbrough | #133 | 80.1 | 29 | 15 | 56% | 45% | 32% | 16% | — |
| 5Birmingham City | #234 | 74.8 | 29 | 15 | 58% | 22% | 14% | 6% | <1% |
| 6West Bromwich Albion | #230 | 74.4 | 28 | 15 | 57% | 21% | 12% | 5% | <1% |
| 7Stoke City | #313 | 70.1 | 29 | 15 | 45% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 8Swansea City | #280 | 70.1 | 26 | 15 | 45% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 9Norwich City | #195 | 69 | 21 | 15 | 42% | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 10Sheffield United | #211 | 67.6 | 22 | 15 | 35% | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 11Queens Park Rangers | #334 | 64.1 | 24 | 15 | 23% | 3% | 1% | <1% | 2% |
| 12Millwall | #258 | 62.6 | 18 | 15 | 19% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 13Wrexham | #276 | 62.5 | 18 | 15 | 19% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 3% |
| 14Blackburn Rovers | #360 | 60.5 | 21 | 15 | 12% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 4% |
| 15Portsmouth | #368 | 60.1 | 22 | 15 | 11% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 4% |
| 16Burnley | #193 | 58 | 10 | 15 | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 8% |
| 17Bristol City | #351 | 56.9 | 18 | 15 | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 9% |
| 18Cardiff City | #387 | 55.5 | 18 | 15 | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 19Watford | #417 | 51.9 | 15 | 15 | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | 23% |
| 20Charlton Athletic | #477 | 49.8 | 17 | 15 | <1% | — | — | — | 32% |
| 21Bolton Wanderers | #503 | 48.4 | 17 | 15 | <1% | <1% | — | — | 40% |
| 22Derby County | #377 | 47.9 | 10 | 15 | <1% | <1% | — | — | 41% |
| 23Lincoln City | #508 | 46.6 | 15 | 15 | <1% | — | — | — | 48% |
| 24Preston North End | #460 | 41.2 | 8 | 15 | <1% | — | — | — | 72% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.