2026-27 projections
EFL Championship
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- 2026–27 promotion: top two automatic; 5th–8th contest single-leg eliminators, then join 3rd/4th in two-leg semifinals and a neutral final. Playoff strengths retain each simulation's season uncertainty.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Promoted | Auto promo | Win league | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | #53 | 90.7 | 15 | 8 | 22% | 84% | 77% | 56% | — |
| 2Wolverhampton Wanderers | #104 | 82.9 | 14 | 7 | 48% | 57% | 44% | 19% | <1% |
| 3Southampton | #125 | 77.9 | 14 | 8 | 58% | 39% | 26% | 10% | <1% |
| 4Middlesbrough | #159 | 76.6 | 15 | 8 | 59% | 33% | 21% | 7% | <1% |
| 5Swansea City | #277 | 70.7 | 17 | 8 | 51% | 15% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 6West Bromwich Albion | #279 | 67.8 | 14 | 8 | 43% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1% |
| 7Millwall | #237 | 67.7 | 11 | 8 | 43% | 12% | 4% | <1% | 2% |
| 8Norwich City | #245 | 64.9 | 9 | 8 | 34% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 4% |
| 9Sheffield United | #231 | 64.9 | 9 | 8 | 34% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 3% |
| 10Burnley | #187 | 64.3 | 4 | 8 | 32% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 3% |
| 11Bristol City | #320 | 63.8 | 13 | 8 | 29% | 6% | 2% | <1% | 4% |
| 12Wrexham | #294 | 63.1 | 10 | 8 | 28% | 5% | 2% | <1% | 5% |
| 13Birmingham City | #328 | 62.3 | 11 | 8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 5% |
| 14Stoke City | #364 | 62.1 | 13 | 8 | 24% | 4% | 1% | <1% | 5% |
| 15Queens Park Rangers | #377 | 59.7 | 13 | 8 | 18% | 3% | <1% | <1% | 9% |
| 16Blackburn Rovers | #381 | 56.7 | 9 | 8 | 11% | 2% | <1% | <1% | 14% |
| 17Watford | #396 | 55.1 | 8 | 8 | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 19% |
| 18Derby County | #348 | 54.6 | 5 | 8 | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 20% |
| 19Charlton Athletic | #451 | 54.2 | 12 | 8 | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 20% |
| 20Lincoln City | #441 | 54 | 11 | 8 | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 21% |
| 21Portsmouth | #425 | 52.4 | 8 | 7 | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 28% |
| 22Bolton Wanderers | — | 48.5 | 10 | 8 | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | 44% |
| 23Cardiff City | #457 | 48.2 | 7 | 8 | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | 43% |
| 24Preston North End | #436 | 46.7 | 4 | 8 | 1% | <1% | <1% | — | 50% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.