2026-27 projections
Ligue 1
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | #5 | 75.3 | 14 | 7 | 98% | >99% | 84% | — | — |
| 2AS Monaco | #53 | 58.9 | 14 | 7 | 44% | 78% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 3Lyon | #46 | 57.8 | 14 | 7 | 40% | 75% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 4Lille | #58 | 56.2 | 14 | 7 | 31% | 67% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Lens | #43 | 54.2 | 10 | 7 | 23% | 59% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 6Stade Rennais | #75 | 53.2 | 13 | 7 | 19% | 51% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Marseille | #55 | 52.4 | 9 | 7 | 18% | 50% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 8Paris FC | #119 | 49.2 | 14 | 7 | 8% | 31% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 9Toulouse | #92 | 47.3 | 9 | 7 | 5% | 25% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 10Strasbourg | #86 | 46.8 | 7 | 7 | 5% | 22% | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| 11Lorient | #135 | 45 | 11 | 7 | 3% | 16% | <1% | 4% | 4% |
| 12Brest | #141 | 42.9 | 9 | 7 | 2% | 12% | <1% | 6% | 6% |
| 13Nice | #159 | 41.2 | 8 | 7 | 1% | 7% | — | 7% | 10% |
| 14AJ Auxerre | #203 | 39.9 | 9 | 7 | <1% | 5% | <1% | 9% | 13% |
| 15Le Mans | #258 | 34.7 | 6 | 7 | <1% | 1% | <1% | 16% | 32% |
| 16Angers | #323 | 32.2 | 7 | 7 | <1% | <1% | — | 18% | 46% |
| 17Troyes | #294 | 30.8 | 4 | 7 | <1% | <1% | — | 17% | 54% |
| 18Le Havre AC | #290 | 28.9 | 2 | 7 | <1% | <1% | — | 16% | 62% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.