2026-27 projections
Ligue 1
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | #4 | 73.3 | 8 | 5 | 96% | >99% | 74% | — | — |
| 2AS Monaco | #44 | 61.8 | 13 | 5 | 58% | 87% | 12% | <1% | <1% |
| 3Lyon | #45 | 58 | 11 | 5 | 40% | 76% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 4Lille | #55 | 56.4 | 10 | 5 | 32% | 70% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Stade Rennais | #74 | 52.9 | 10 | 5 | 19% | 52% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 6Lens | #42 | 51.9 | 4 | 5 | 17% | 51% | 1% | <1% | 1% |
| 7Marseille | #54 | 49.9 | 3 | 5 | 12% | 41% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 8Strasbourg | #75 | 49.2 | 7 | 5 | 10% | 36% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 9Paris FC | #118 | 48.8 | 11 | 5 | 8% | 33% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 10Toulouse | #94 | 44.9 | 5 | 5 | 3% | 19% | <1% | 5% | 6% |
| 11Lorient | #145 | 41.1 | 5 | 5 | 1% | 9% | <1% | 8% | 12% |
| 12Brest | #158 | 40.6 | 5 | 5 | 1% | 8% | <1% | 8% | 14% |
| 13Nice | #155 | 40.3 | 5 | 5 | <1% | 7% | <1% | 8% | 15% |
| 14AJ Auxerre | #201 | 39.2 | 6 | 5 | <1% | 5% | — | 10% | 19% |
| 15Le Mans | #236 | 37.1 | 6 | 5 | <1% | 3% | <1% | 13% | 25% |
| 16Angers | #295 | 35.3 | 7 | 5 | <1% | 2% | — | 14% | 33% |
| 17Troyes | #287 | 33 | 4 | 5 | <1% | 1% | — | 14% | 47% |
| 18Le Havre AC | #284 | 31.2 | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | — | 14% | 54% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.