2026-27 projections
Ligue 1
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | #3 | 71.3 | 2 | 3 | 92% | 99% | 65% | — | — |
| 2AS Monaco | #41 | 60.6 | 9 | 3 | 50% | 81% | 11% | <1% | <1% |
| 3Lille | #53 | 57 | 7 | 3 | 33% | 68% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 4Lyon | #47 | 56.2 | 7 | 3 | 30% | 65% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Lens | #38 | 54.4 | 3 | 3 | 24% | 59% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 6Marseille | #44 | 53.3 | 3 | 3 | 21% | 54% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Stade Rennais | #69 | 53.2 | 7 | 3 | 20% | 51% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 8Strasbourg | #76 | 51.1 | 6 | 3 | 14% | 42% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 9Paris FC | #124 | 47.1 | 7 | 3 | 6% | 25% | <1% | 3% | 3% |
| 10Toulouse | #97 | 43.9 | 1 | 3 | 3% | 15% | <1% | 5% | 7% |
| 11Lorient | #131 | 43.6 | 4 | 3 | 3% | 14% | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| 12Brest | #159 | 42.4 | 5 | 3 | 2% | 11% | <1% | 6% | 10% |
| 13Nice | #161 | 39.3 | 2 | 3 | 1% | 6% | <1% | 10% | 17% |
| 14Troyes | #268 | 35.6 | 4 | 3 | <1% | 2% | — | 13% | 32% |
| 15AJ Auxerre | #214 | 35.4 | 0 | 3 | <1% | 2% | <1% | 13% | 32% |
| 16Le Mans | #250 | 34.8 | 2 | 3 | <1% | 2% | <1% | 13% | 34% |
| 17Angers | #300 | 33.4 | 3 | 3 | <1% | 1% | — | 14% | 41% |
| 18Le Havre AC | #283 | 32.6 | 1 | 3 | <1% | 1% | — | 14% | 45% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.