2026-27 projections
Ligue 1
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | #4 | 78.4 | 23 | 10 | 99% | >99% | 94% | — | — |
| 2Lille | #62 | 59.5 | 21 | 10 | 48% | 81% | 2% | <1% | — |
| 3Marseille | #55 | 57.1 | 18 | 10 | 37% | 73% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4AS Monaco | #54 | 56 | 16 | 10 | 31% | 67% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5Lyon | #58 | 55.3 | 17 | 10 | 28% | 64% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6Paris FC | #122 | 52.7 | 20 | 10 | 15% | 48% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Stade Rennais | #82 | 51.7 | 16 | 10 | 14% | 43% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 8Lens | #70 | 49.5 | 13 | 10 | 9% | 34% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 9Nice | #135 | 47.9 | 17 | 10 | 6% | 24% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 10Toulouse | #103 | 46.6 | 13 | 10 | 4% | 20% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 11Brest | #152 | 45.8 | 15 | 10 | 4% | 18% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 12Strasbourg | #95 | 45.5 | 10 | 10 | 3% | 16% | <1% | 3% | 2% |
| 13Lorient | #168 | 44.5 | 15 | 10 | 2% | 12% | <1% | 3% | 3% |
| 14AJ Auxerre | #254 | 35.6 | 10 | 10 | <1% | <1% | — | 17% | 24% |
| 15Troyes | #292 | 33.7 | 8 | 10 | <1% | <1% | — | 19% | 32% |
| 16Le Mans | #294 | 33.4 | 8 | 10 | <1% | <1% | — | 19% | 34% |
| 17Angers | #365 | 29.6 | 8 | 10 | <1% | <1% | — | 19% | 58% |
| 18Le Havre AC | #340 | 25.6 | 2 | 10 | — | — | — | 13% | 76% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.