2026-27 projections
Bundesliga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | 79.9 | 10 | 4 | >99% | >99% | 84% | — | — |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | #16 | 66.6 | 12 | 4 | 85% | 97% | 10% | <1% | — |
| 3Bayer Leverkusen | #20 | 61.3 | 7 | 4 | 69% | 91% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 4RB Leipzig | #36 | 54.7 | 6 | 4 | 38% | 73% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5VfB Stuttgart | #37 | 52.9 | 3 | 4 | 30% | 65% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6SC Freiburg | #66 | 52.7 | 10 | 4 | 28% | 65% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Mainz | #65 | 49.7 | 7 | 4 | 17% | 51% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 8Eintracht Frankfurt | #62 | 48.1 | 5 | 4 | 13% | 43% | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| 9SV Elversberg | #138 | 43.5 | 7 | 4 | 5% | 22% | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| 10TSG Hoffenheim | #81 | 43.3 | 3 | 4 | 5% | 23% | <1% | 5% | 9% |
| 11FC Augsburg | #133 | 42.7 | 7 | 4 | 4% | 20% | <1% | 6% | 9% |
| 12Werder Bremen | #157 | 41.7 | 7 | 4 | 3% | 17% | — | 7% | 12% |
| 13FC Cologne | #164 | 38.3 | 4 | 4 | 1% | 9% | <1% | 10% | 22% |
| 14Hamburg SV | #169 | 37.5 | 3 | 4 | 1% | 7% | — | 11% | 26% |
| 15Borussia Mönchengladbach | #126 | 36 | 0 | 4 | <1% | 6% | — | 12% | 32% |
| 16Schalke 04 | #254 | 34.9 | 5 | 4 | <1% | 4% | — | 13% | 35% |
| 17SC Paderborn 07 | #226 | 34.9 | 4 | 4 | <1% | 4% | — | 13% | 36% |
| 181. FC Union Berlin | #190 | 34.6 | 1 | 4 | <1% | 4% | — | 13% | 37% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.