2026-27 projections
Bundesliga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | 80 | 21 | 9 | >99% | 100% | 88% | — | — |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | #19 | 66.6 | 21 | 9 | 86% | 98% | 7% | <1% | — |
| 3Bayer Leverkusen | #20 | 60.8 | 16 | 9 | 65% | 93% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 4RB Leipzig | #31 | 60 | 18 | 9 | 61% | 91% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 5SC Freiburg | #60 | 55.2 | 19 | 9 | 34% | 76% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6VfB Stuttgart | #37 | 53.5 | 12 | 9 | 27% | 70% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Eintracht Frankfurt | #64 | 47.6 | 12 | 9 | 8% | 38% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 8Werder Bremen | #124 | 45.8 | 15 | 9 | 5% | 28% | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| 9TSG Hoffenheim | #73 | 45.8 | 12 | 9 | 5% | 31% | <1% | 3% | 3% |
| 10Mainz | #75 | 44.2 | 10 | 9 | 4% | 24% | — | 4% | 5% |
| 11SV Elversberg | #154 | 42.9 | 13 | 9 | 2% | 18% | — | 5% | 7% |
| 12Hamburg SV | #172 | 40.5 | 12 | 9 | <1% | 10% | <1% | 8% | 12% |
| 13FC Augsburg | #138 | 38.7 | 9 | 9 | <1% | 8% | — | 10% | 17% |
| 14FC Cologne | #129 | 38.3 | 9 | 9 | <1% | 7% | <1% | 10% | 18% |
| 15SC Paderborn 07 | #238 | 35 | 10 | 9 | <1% | 2% | — | 14% | 32% |
| 161. FC Union Berlin | #205 | 34.2 | 7 | 9 | <1% | 2% | — | 15% | 38% |
| 17Borussia Mönchengladbach | #128 | 33.4 | 4 | 9 | <1% | 2% | — | 13% | 41% |
| 18Schalke 04 | #285 | 30.6 | 6 | 9 | <1% | <1% | — | 14% | 56% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.