2026-27 projections
Bundesliga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | 77.7 | 4 | 2 | 99% | >99% | 79% | — | — |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | #16 | 64 | 6 | 2 | 76% | 94% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 3Bayer Leverkusen | #19 | 60.4 | 3 | 2 | 63% | 89% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 4VfB Stuttgart | #33 | 56.2 | 3 | 2 | 43% | 75% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 5RB Leipzig | #31 | 55.7 | 3 | 2 | 41% | 74% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 6SC Freiburg | #67 | 51 | 6 | 2 | 21% | 54% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 7Mainz | #60 | 49.9 | 4 | 2 | 19% | 50% | <1% | 2% | 2% |
| 8Eintracht Frankfurt | #62 | 46.6 | 1 | 2 | 11% | 36% | <1% | 3% | 5% |
| 9TSG Hoffenheim | #74 | 44.2 | 0 | 2 | 7% | 26% | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| 10FC Augsburg | #128 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 6% | 24% | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| 11SV Elversberg | #143 | 43.3 | 6 | 2 | 5% | 21% | <1% | 7% | 10% |
| 12FC Cologne | #152 | 40.1 | 3 | 2 | 2% | 13% | <1% | 9% | 17% |
| 13Werder Bremen | #162 | 40.1 | 3 | 2 | 2% | 12% | — | 9% | 17% |
| 14Borussia Mönchengladbach | #117 | 39.4 | 0 | 2 | 2% | 11% | <1% | 9% | 20% |
| 151. FC Union Berlin | #156 | 38.6 | 1 | 2 | 2% | 10% | <1% | 10% | 21% |
| 16Hamburg SV | #157 | 36.9 | 0 | 2 | 1% | 7% | <1% | 12% | 28% |
| 17SC Paderborn 07 | #238 | 32.9 | 1 | 2 | <1% | 3% | — | 13% | 46% |
| 18Schalke 04 | #267 | 32.3 | 1 | 2 | <1% | 2% | — | 14% | 48% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.