2026-27 projections
Bundesliga
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Qualification columns describe finishing in the listed league places. Cup-winner reallocations, titleholder places, performance spots and qualifying-round progression are excluded; these are not final qualification probabilities.
- Relegation includes a fixed one-third chance of losing the relegation playoff; the actual second-division opponent is not simulated.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | UCL places* | Europe places* | Win league | Releg. playoff | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | 79.2 | 14 | 6 | >99% | >99% | 84% | — | — |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | #16 | 64.8 | 13 | 6 | 81% | 97% | 7% | <1% | — |
| 3Borussia Dortmund | #19 | 64.4 | 14 | 6 | 80% | 96% | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 4RB Leipzig | #33 | 55.8 | 9 | 6 | 41% | 78% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5SC Freiburg | #63 | 52.9 | 13 | 6 | 27% | 66% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 6VfB Stuttgart | #36 | 52.7 | 6 | 6 | 27% | 65% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7Mainz | #62 | 49.9 | 10 | 6 | 16% | 51% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 8Eintracht Frankfurt | #69 | 47.5 | 8 | 6 | 10% | 38% | <1% | 2% | 3% |
| 9SV Elversberg | #140 | 43 | 10 | 6 | 4% | 20% | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| 10TSG Hoffenheim | #85 | 43 | 6 | 6 | 4% | 21% | — | 6% | 9% |
| 11FC Augsburg | #129 | 42.1 | 8 | 6 | 3% | 18% | <1% | 6% | 10% |
| 12Werder Bremen | #148 | 41.7 | 9 | 6 | 3% | 16% | — | 7% | 10% |
| 13Hamburg SV | #166 | 41.6 | 9 | 6 | 2% | 15% | <1% | 7% | 12% |
| 14FC Cologne | #156 | 39.1 | 7 | 6 | 1% | 9% | — | 9% | 18% |
| 151. FC Union Berlin | #183 | 37.3 | 5 | 6 | <1% | 6% | — | 12% | 25% |
| 16Borussia Mönchengladbach | #132 | 33 | 0 | 6 | <1% | 2% | — | 14% | 44% |
| 17SC Paderborn 07 | #245 | 32.8 | 5 | 6 | <1% | 2% | — | 14% | 46% |
| 18Schalke 04 | #259 | 32.6 | 5 | 6 | <1% | 2% | — | 15% | 46% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.