The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 11:00 PM UTC

Corinthians vs Mirassol

Up to 37.5 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	53.3%	35.6%	-17.7 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	16.3%	25.8%	+9.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,616 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 6, 12:30 AM UTC

Cruzeiro vs Bahia

Up to 36.2 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	94.7%	99.0%	+4.2 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	49.0%	37.6%	-11.3 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,317 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 12:30 AM UTC

Internacional vs Coritiba

Up to 35.1 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	30.1%	17.9%	-12.2 pp
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	8.6%	12.6%	+3.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,796 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

São Paulo vs Corinthians

Up to 34.8 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.9%	6.9%	+3.0 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	53.3%	65.3%	+12.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,585 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 10:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro

Up to 32.3 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	67.3%	82.2%	+14.9 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	94.7%	90.9%	-3.9 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,301 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 12:30 AM UTC

Bahia vs São Paulo

Up to 32.2 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	49.0%	64.3%	+15.3 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.9%	0.7%	-3.2 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,513 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam

Up to 30.8 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	54.0%	65.2%	+11.2 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	83.0%	88.2%	+5.2 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	33.1%	22.7%	-10.4 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	68.5%	61.4%	-7.1 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,533 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 10:30 PM UTC

Coritiba vs Grêmio

Up to 29.9 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	8.6%	1.0%	-7.6 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	72.7%	84.4%	+11.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,966 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 26, 6:30 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Up to 28.8 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	54.0%	65.4%	+11.5 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.7%	84.7%	+8.0 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	21.2%	12.8%	-8.4 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	48.3%	39.9%	-8.4 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,905 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 11:00 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 28.7 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	53.1%	61.5%	+8.4 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	67.3%	61.4%	-5.9 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,237 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Up to 28.2 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.2%	0.7%	+0.4 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	4.6%	0.5%	-4.0 pp
FlamengoWin league	53.1%	38.0%	-15.2 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,730 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Palmeiras

Up to 27.3 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	11.5%	24.8%	+13.3 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	46.9%	31.7%	-15.2 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,742 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 10:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Grêmio

Up to 27.0 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	53.1%	59.6%	+6.5 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	72.7%	77.4%	+4.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,924 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Internacional

Up to 26.6 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	77.2%	87.2%	+9.9 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	30.1%	38.3%	+8.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,244 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

Botafogo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 26.2 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	3.1%	0.2%	-2.9 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	67.3%	57.5%	-9.8 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,492 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR

Up to 24.9 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	72.7%	60.1%	-12.6 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	94.3%	90.8%	-3.6 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,354 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 8:00 PM UTC

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Up to 24.4 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BarcelonaWin league	74.3%	83.3%	+9.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.9%	100.0%	+0.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Real MadridWin league	18.0%	10.0%	-8.0 pp
Real MadridFinish top 4	98.0%	97.4%	-0.5 pp
Real MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,359 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 10:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Remo

Up to 23.5 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	46.9%	51.8%	+5.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish bottom 4	99.7%	99.9%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,651 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 3, 10:30 PM UTC

Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Up to 23.2 percentage points between scenarios · Mirassol: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ChapecoenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish bottom 4	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	16.3%	29.4%	+13.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,009 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 6, 11:00 PM UTC

Vitória vs Fluminense

Up to 23.2 percentage points between scenarios · Fluminense: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	11.4%	3.1%	-8.3 pp
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	77.2%	67.0%	-10.2 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,537 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Up to 23.1 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	55.7%	44.3%	-11.5 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	53.5%	62.6%	+9.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,173 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Lille

Up to 22.7 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	5.3%	7.0%	+1.7 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	48.3%	57.9%	+9.6 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
LilleWin league	2.0%	1.1%	-0.9 pp
LilleFinish top 3	29.1%	21.7%	-7.4 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,692 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Up to 22.6 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	74.8%	64.7%	-10.2 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	39.4%	51.3%	+11.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,328 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 7, 5:45 PM UTC

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · ADO Den Haag: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	34.2%	22.4%	-11.8 pp
Sparta RotterdamWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Sparta RotterdamFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Sparta RotterdamFinish bottom 2	9.7%	15.4%	+5.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,939 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 25, 1:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi

Up to 22.4 percentage points between scenarios · Konyaspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	36.3%	27.1%	-9.2 pp
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	37.2%	45.6%	+8.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,628 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 22.4 percentage points between scenarios · Borussia Mönchengladbach: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.5%	0.8%	+0.3 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	28.1%	20.6%	-7.6 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	34.4%	41.6%	+7.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,451 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 1, 11:15 AM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · ADO Den Haag: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	25.3%	15.8%	-9.5 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	34.2%	43.9%	+9.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,410 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · Brighton & Hove Albion: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	5.4%	7.2%	+1.8 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	59.2%	67.8%	+8.6 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	3.3%	2.0%	-1.3 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	46.6%	38.4%	-8.2 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,094 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Mans

Up to 22.1 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.4%	38.2%	-10.2 pp
Le MansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le MansFinish top 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Le MansFinish bottom 2	26.6%	34.8%	+8.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,184 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

Parma vs Udinese

Up to 21.8 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	64.2%	53.3%	-10.9 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	43.5%	54.1%	+10.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,661 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 7, 1:00 PM UTC

Samsunspor vs Konyaspor

Up to 21.6 percentage points between scenarios · Samsunspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SamsunsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish bottom 3	35.5%	26.3%	-9.2 pp
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	36.3%	43.8%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,622 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 1, 4:15 PM UTC

Paris FC vs AS Monaco

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Paris FCWin league	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Paris FCFinish top 3	6.5%	10.3%	+3.8 pp
Paris FCFinish bottom 2	0.9%	0.3%	-0.6 pp
AS MonacoWin league	5.3%	3.5%	-1.8 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	48.3%	38.1%	-10.2 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,417 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Genoa

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.6%	30.0%	-11.6 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	30.3%	40.3%	+10.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,269 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 7, 4:00 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Amed SFK

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	54.0%	60.0%	+6.0 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.7%	82.3%	+5.6 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Amed SFKWin league	5.5%	3.5%	-2.0 pp
Amed SFKFinish top 2	16.5%	12.5%	-4.0 pp
Amed SFKFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,437 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 7, 2:00 PM UTC

Torino vs Lecce

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TorinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
TorinoFinish top 4	1.6%	2.2%	+0.7 pp
TorinoFinish bottom 3	6.5%	4.0%	-2.5 pp
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.6%	49.3%	+7.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,878 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC

Real Betis vs Málaga

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Málaga: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Real BetisWin league	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
Real BetisFinish top 4	47.4%	52.8%	+5.3 pp
Real BetisFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	68.4%	73.0%	+4.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,589 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 7, 3:15 PM UTC

Espanyol vs Deportivo

Up to 21.2 percentage points between scenarios · Espanyol: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EspanyolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EspanyolFinish top 4	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
EspanyolFinish bottom 3	30.9%	22.6%	-8.3 pp
DeportivoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
DeportivoFinish top 4	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2 pp
DeportivoFinish bottom 3	22.9%	29.5%	+6.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,604 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Juventus

Up to 21.0 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.2 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.6%	26.3%	-15.4 pp
JuventusWin league	5.5%	2.5%	-3.0 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	47.9%	36.4%	-11.5 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,672 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 6, 5:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Kasimpasa

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	50.3%	39.7%	-10.6 pp
KasimpasaWin league	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
KasimpasaFinish top 2	0.7%	0.2%	-0.5 pp
KasimpasaFinish bottom 3	2.9%	5.1%	+2.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,706 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 6, 7:45 PM UTC

Venezia vs Udinese

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VeneziaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VeneziaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
VeneziaFinish bottom 3	32.2%	24.1%	-8.1 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	43.5%	51.2%	+7.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,642 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 6, 8:00 PM UTC

Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Bolton Wanderers: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Derby CountyWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Derby CountyFinish bottom 3	32.4%	25.6%	-6.9 pp
Derby CountyAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Bolton WanderersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Bolton WanderersFinish bottom 3	37.7%	44.8%	+7.1 pp
Bolton WanderersAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,202 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 1, 3:30 PM UTC

Arouca vs C.D. Nacional

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · C.D. Nacional: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AroucaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AroucaFinish top 2	0.1%	0.2%	+0.0 pp
AroucaFinish bottom 2	0.3%	0.1%	-0.3 pp
C.D. NacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish bottom 2	39.9%	47.1%	+7.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,918 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 6, 8:00 PM UTC

Everton vs Coventry City

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EvertonWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EvertonFinish top 4	2.0%	2.6%	+0.6 pp
EvertonFinish bottom 3	8.9%	5.1%	-3.8 pp
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	55.7%	62.3%	+6.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,160 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 7, 1:00 PM UTC

Málaga vs Racing Santander

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Racing Santander: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	68.4%	59.2%	-9.2 pp
Racing SantanderWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Racing SantanderFinish top 4	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
Racing SantanderFinish bottom 3	30.2%	39.1%	+8.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,412 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 30, 6:00 PM UTC

Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	56.7%	39.6%	-17.0 pp
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	84.7%	74.8%	-9.8 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	98.0%	94.0%	-4.0 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,072 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 29, 5:30 PM UTC

Frosinone vs Lecce

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FrosinoneWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
FrosinoneFinish top 4	3.0%	3.9%	+0.9 pp
FrosinoneFinish bottom 3	4.6%	2.5%	-2.2 pp
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.6%	48.8%	+7.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,055 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 7, 6:00 PM UTC

Alverca vs Casa Pia

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AlvercaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AlvercaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AlvercaFinish bottom 2	4.1%	2.1%	-2.0 pp
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	35.9%	43.2%	+7.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,854 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · Bayern Munich: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bayern MunichWin league	81.9%	87.2%	+5.3 pp
Bayern MunichFinish top 4	99.6%	99.8%	+0.2 pp
Bayern MunichFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia DortmundWin league	8.9%	5.0%	-3.9 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish top 4	84.4%	81.7%	-2.7 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,533 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 7, 7:45 PM UTC

Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	84.7%	86.2%	+1.5 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	98.0%	98.5%	+0.4 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.4%	50.5%	+2.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 8,432 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 30, 5:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Galatasaray

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	36.3%	23.8%	-12.5 pp
GalatasarayWin league	54.0%	40.8%	-13.2 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.7%	66.3%	-10.4 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,986 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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