The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 11, 8:30 PM UTC

Grêmio vs Internacional

Up to 33.9 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	47.1%	33.2%	-13.9 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	58.9%	70.6%	+11.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,840 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 7, 10:30 PM UTC

Internacional vs Corinthians

Up to 31.2 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	58.9%	43.7%	-15.2 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.2%	0.1%	-0.2 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	22.8%	31.5%	+8.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,352 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 11, 10:30 PM UTC

Bahia vs Mirassol

Up to 28.2 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	58.7%	70.7%	+12.1 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.4%	0.1%	-0.3 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	21.9%	29.0%	+7.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,737 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 7, 10:30 PM UTC

Remo vs Grêmio

Up to 28.0 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
RemoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish bottom 4	97.2%	94.5%	-2.7 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	47.1%	58.9%	+11.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,844 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 11, 7:00 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Santos

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	36.3%	47.5%	+11.2 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	11.3%	6.3%	-5.1 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	1.1%	1.6%	+0.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,022 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 8, 11:00 PM UTC

Athletico-PR vs Atlético-MG

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Athletico-PRWin league	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	92.8%	97.6%	+4.8 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	36.3%	26.8%	-9.5 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,683 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 3, 9:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Red Bull Bragantino

Up to 25.2 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	36.3%	47.0%	+10.8 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	10.5%	5.3%	-5.2 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	1.3%	2.0%	+0.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,044 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 8, 12:30 AM UTC

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo

Up to 23.7 percentage points between scenarios · Cruzeiro: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	77.2%	86.7%	+9.5 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	11.9%	6.3%	-5.6 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	1.1%	1.8%	+0.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,866 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 11, 12:30 PM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur

Up to 23.6 percentage points between scenarios · SC Cambuur: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	24.7%	17.2%	-7.5 pp
SC CambuurWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish bottom 2	41.2%	50.2%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,914 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 11, 2:30 PM UTC

Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional

Up to 23.6 percentage points between scenarios · C.D. Nacional: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Rio AveWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Rio AveFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Rio AveFinish bottom 2	34.4%	24.3%	-10.1 pp
C.D. NacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish bottom 2	35.5%	45.8%	+10.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,043 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 7, 11:00 PM UTC

Vitória vs Chapecoense

Up to 23.4 percentage points between scenarios · Vitória: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	0.3%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	22.1%	13.8%	-8.3 pp
ChapecoenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish bottom 4	99.9%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,509 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 11, 8:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Fluminense

Up to 22.9 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	66.4%	73.5%	+7.1 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	91.3%	89.3%	-2.0 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,146 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 9, 12:30 AM UTC

Palmeiras vs Bahia

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	33.4%	39.1%	+5.7 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	58.7%	54.0%	-4.7 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,828 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 10, 4:45 PM UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Feyenoord Rotterdam: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	18.3%	23.4%	+5.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	51.7%	60.6%	+8.9 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AZ AlkmaarWin league	6.6%	4.7%	-2.0 pp
AZ AlkmaarFinish top 2	24.5%	17.6%	-6.8 pp
AZ AlkmaarFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,173 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 11, 12:30 PM UTC

Telstar vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · ADO Den Haag: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TelstarWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TelstarFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TelstarFinish bottom 2	9.5%	5.1%	-4.4 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	49.0%	56.8%	+7.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,048 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 9, 7:00 PM UTC

Málaga vs Espanyol

Up to 21.7 percentage points between scenarios · Málaga: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	57.2%	46.7%	-10.5 pp
EspanyolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EspanyolFinish top 4	0.9%	0.4%	-0.5 pp
EspanyolFinish bottom 3	24.8%	31.5%	+6.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,236 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 8, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Flamengo

Up to 21.5 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	11.3%	19.6%	+8.3 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	1.1%	0.2%	-0.9 pp
FlamengoWin league	66.4%	54.3%	-12.1 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,847 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 10, 1:00 PM UTC

Alanyaspor vs Erzurum BB

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Erzurum BB: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AlanyasporWin league	0.3%	0.5%	+0.2 pp
AlanyasporFinish top 2	1.7%	2.6%	+0.8 pp
AlanyasporFinish bottom 3	4.6%	2.6%	-2.0 pp
Erzurum BBWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish bottom 3	51.1%	57.7%	+6.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,438 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 10, 8:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Remo

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Vasco da Gama: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.7%	1.0%	+0.3 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	18.9%	11.6%	-7.3 pp
RemoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish bottom 4	97.2%	99.0%	+1.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,860 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 10, 10:30 AM UTC

Genclerbirligi vs Amed SFK

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	41.1%	28.3%	-12.8 pp
Amed SFKWin league	4.8%	3.0%	-1.8 pp
Amed SFKFinish top 2	14.4%	9.1%	-5.3 pp
Amed SFKFinish bottom 3	0.4%	0.8%	+0.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,867 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 13, 12:00 AM UTC

Red Bull Bragantino vs Cruzeiro

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · Cruzeiro: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	10.5%	16.8%	+6.4 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	1.3%	0.3%	-1.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	77.2%	67.7%	-9.4 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,045 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 11, 4:00 PM UTC

Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · AC Milan: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SassuoloWin league	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
SassuoloFinish top 4	2.6%	4.8%	+2.2 pp
SassuoloFinish bottom 3	9.4%	5.8%	-3.6 pp
AC MilanWin league	5.5%	3.2%	-2.3 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	43.6%	32.4%	-11.2 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,964 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 11, 10:15 AM UTC

FC Utrecht vs Willem II

Up to 20.4 percentage points between scenarios · Willem II: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FC UtrechtWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FC UtrechtFinish top 2	0.1%	0.2%	+0.0 pp
FC UtrechtFinish bottom 2	0.9%	0.5%	-0.4 pp
Willem IIWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish bottom 2	61.8%	66.9%	+5.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,419 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 10, 3:15 PM UTC

Lille vs Le Havre AC

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LilleWin league	3.4%	4.3%	+0.9 pp
LilleFinish top 3	32.2%	36.8%	+4.6 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	49.1%	54.1%	+5.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,206 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 9, 6:45 PM UTC

Lens vs Lyon

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · Lyon: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LensWin league	1.4%	2.0%	+0.5 pp
LensFinish top 3	17.2%	23.0%	+5.8 pp
LensFinish bottom 2	0.8%	0.3%	-0.4 pp
LyonWin league	5.7%	3.7%	-2.0 pp
LyonFinish top 3	40.5%	32.9%	-7.6 pp
LyonFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,612 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 10, 6:45 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Toulouse

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	11.9%	14.8%	+2.9 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	58.4%	65.9%	+7.5 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
ToulouseWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
ToulouseFinish top 3	3.5%	2.1%	-1.4 pp
ToulouseFinish bottom 2	4.6%	5.8%	+1.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,372 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 11, 12:00 PM UTC

Elche vs Celta Vigo

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · Elche: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ElcheWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ElcheFinish top 4	0.4%	0.7%	+0.3 pp
ElcheFinish bottom 3	33.7%	23.7%	-10.0 pp
Celta VigoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Celta VigoFinish top 4	3.4%	1.8%	-1.6 pp
Celta VigoFinish bottom 3	9.4%	13.6%	+4.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,698 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 11, 1:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Bologna

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	54.6%	42.1%	-12.5 pp
BolognaWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
BolognaFinish top 4	2.2%	1.1%	-1.1 pp
BolognaFinish bottom 3	10.3%	16.8%	+6.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,556 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 10, 2:30 PM UTC

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

Up to 19.6 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	45.2%	33.2%	-12.0 pp
Santa ClaraWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Santa ClaraFinish top 2	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Santa ClaraFinish bottom 2	0.2%	0.5%	+0.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,840 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 11, 6:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Marseille

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.1%	0.3%	+0.2 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	41.8%	29.0%	-12.7 pp
MarseilleWin league	0.8%	0.2%	-0.6 pp
MarseilleFinish top 3	11.6%	6.6%	-5.0 pp
MarseilleFinish bottom 2	1.5%	2.9%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,640 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 10, 2:00 PM UTC

Ipswich Town vs Fulham

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	44.8%	33.9%	-10.9 pp
FulhamWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FulhamFinish top 4	1.1%	0.6%	-0.5 pp
FulhamFinish bottom 3	20.5%	28.7%	+8.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,269 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 10, 1:30 PM UTC

Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Bayer Leverkusen: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MainzWin league	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
MainzFinish top 4	17.0%	25.2%	+8.2 pp
MainzFinish bottom 2	1.3%	0.6%	-0.7 pp
Bayer LeverkusenWin league	3.5%	1.9%	-1.6 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish top 4	69.2%	59.0%	-10.3 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,354 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 7, 10:30 PM UTC

Red Bull Bragantino vs Mirassol

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Mirassol: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	10.5%	15.5%	+5.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	1.3%	0.3%	-1.0 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.4%	0.1%	-0.3 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	21.9%	29.7%	+7.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,669 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 9, 6:00 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen

Up to 19.4 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	66.3%	70.0%	+3.7 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	86.3%	88.8%	+2.5 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
HeerenveenWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
HeerenveenFinish top 2	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
HeerenveenFinish bottom 2	0.9%	1.0%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,654 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 10, 4:00 PM UTC

Caykur Rizespor vs Fenerbahce

Up to 19.4 percentage points between scenarios · Fenerbahce: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Caykur RizesporWin league	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Caykur RizesporFinish top 2	0.9%	1.9%	+1.0 pp
Caykur RizesporFinish bottom 3	9.9%	5.4%	-4.5 pp
FenerbahceWin league	26.1%	17.2%	-8.9 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	54.0%	41.3%	-12.8 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,252 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 12, 5:00 PM UTC

Eyupspor vs Goztepe

Up to 19.3 percentage points between scenarios · Eyupspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EyupsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish bottom 3	66.9%	55.7%	-11.2 pp
GoztepeWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GoztepeFinish top 2	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
GoztepeFinish bottom 3	20.5%	27.5%	+7.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,257 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 9, 7:15 PM UTC

Braga vs Sporting CP

Up to 19.3 percentage points between scenarios · Sporting CP: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BragaWin league	1.2%	2.5%	+1.2 pp
BragaFinish top 2	5.1%	9.3%	+4.2 pp
BragaFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Sporting CPWin league	24.7%	16.6%	-8.2 pp
Sporting CPFinish top 2	55.1%	44.2%	-10.9 pp
Sporting CPFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,832 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 12, 7:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Newcastle United

Up to 19.2 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	58.6%	46.2%	-12.4 pp
Newcastle UnitedWin league	0.7%	0.2%	-0.5 pp
Newcastle UnitedFinish top 4	16.6%	10.8%	-5.8 pp
Newcastle UnitedFinish bottom 3	1.9%	3.3%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,726 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 11, 3:30 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Liverpool: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	8.3%	12.8%	+4.5 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	60.4%	70.3%	+9.9 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Manchester CityWin league	39.6%	30.3%	-9.3 pp
Manchester CityFinish top 4	91.0%	86.8%	-4.3 pp
Manchester CityFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,971 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 11, 7:00 PM UTC

Racing Santander vs Valencia

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Racing Santander: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Racing SantanderWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Racing SantanderFinish top 4	0.5%	0.9%	+0.4 pp
Racing SantanderFinish bottom 3	33.6%	24.6%	-9.0 pp
ValenciaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ValenciaFinish top 4	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1 pp
ValenciaFinish bottom 3	29.4%	36.7%	+7.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,426 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 10, 2:00 PM UTC

Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City

Up to 18.9 percentage points between scenarios · Cardiff City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Blackburn RoversWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Blackburn RoversFinish bottom 3	13.6%	9.1%	-4.5 pp
Blackburn RoversAutomatic promotion	0.3%	0.5%	+0.1 pp
Cardiff CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Cardiff CityFinish bottom 3	43.0%	50.1%	+7.2 pp
Cardiff CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,668 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 12, 6:45 PM UTC

Torino vs Udinese

Up to 18.9 percentage points between scenarios · Torino: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TorinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TorinoFinish top 4	0.4%	0.7%	+0.3 pp
TorinoFinish bottom 3	26.1%	16.8%	-9.3 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	25.7%	33.0%	+7.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,013 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 10, 2:00 PM UTC

Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City

Up to 18.8 percentage points between scenarios · Bolton Wanderers: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bolton WanderersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Bolton WanderersFinish bottom 3	43.8%	33.5%	-10.2 pp
Bolton WanderersAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Stoke CityWin league	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
Stoke CityFinish bottom 3	5.3%	8.4%	+3.1 pp
Stoke CityAutomatic promotion	1.1%	0.7%	-0.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,402 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 10, 2:00 PM UTC

Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 18.7 percentage points between scenarios · Sunderland: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.3%	0.6%	+0.4 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	43.1%	31.1%	-12.1 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	2.7%	1.2%	-1.5 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	34.0%	25.6%	-8.5 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.4%	0.7%	+0.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,552 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 11, 12:00 AM UTC

São Paulo vs Vitória

Up to 18.6 percentage points between scenarios · Vitória: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	11.9%	16.3%	+4.4 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	1.1%	0.2%	-0.9 pp
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	22.1%	27.5%	+5.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,378 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 10, 1:00 PM UTC

Genoa vs Fiorentina

Up to 18.5 percentage points between scenarios · Genoa: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.3%	+0.2 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	38.4%	28.1%	-10.3 pp
FiorentinaWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
FiorentinaFinish top 4	4.1%	2.0%	-2.1 pp
FiorentinaFinish bottom 3	6.0%	9.0%	+3.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,399 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 10, 1:30 PM UTC

1. FC Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg

Up to 18.5 percentage points between scenarios · 1. FC Union Berlin: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
1. FC Union BerlinWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
1. FC Union BerlinFinish top 4	0.4%	0.8%	+0.4 pp
1. FC Union BerlinFinish bottom 2	33.3%	24.8%	-8.5 pp
SV ElversbergWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SV ElversbergFinish top 4	4.8%	2.5%	-2.3 pp
SV ElversbergFinish bottom 2	6.1%	8.8%	+2.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,201 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 10, 1:30 PM UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

Up to 18.3 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.4%	1.1%	+0.7 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	32.0%	20.2%	-11.8 pp
VfB StuttgartWin league	0.6%	0.3%	-0.3 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish top 4	29.6%	20.3%	-9.3 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish bottom 2	0.7%	1.4%	+0.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,564 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 9, 7:00 PM UTC

West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers

Up to 18.1 percentage points between scenarios · West Ham United: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
West Ham UnitedWin league	55.9%	59.9%	+4.1 pp
West Ham UnitedFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
West Ham UnitedAutomatic promotion	77.1%	80.7%	+3.5 pp
Queens Park RangersWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Queens Park RangersFinish bottom 3	8.6%	9.8%	+1.2 pp
Queens Park RangersAutomatic promotion	0.8%	0.5%	-0.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,965 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 10, 4:30 PM UTC

RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Up to 18.1 percentage points between scenarios · RB Leipzig: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
RB LeipzigWin league	0.9%	1.3%	+0.5 pp
RB LeipzigFinish top 4	37.5%	44.2%	+6.7 pp
RB LeipzigFinish bottom 2	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
Eintracht FrankfurtWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Eintracht FrankfurtFinish top 4	12.8%	9.0%	-3.8 pp
Eintracht FrankfurtFinish bottom 2	2.3%	3.1%	+0.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,362 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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