The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 25, 12:00 AM UTC

Santos vs Bahia

Up to 36.8 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.2%	27.3%	+10.0 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	45.1%	32.6%	-12.6 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,965 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 12:30 AM UTC

Internacional vs Coritiba

Up to 35.4 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	50.9%	37.3%	-13.6 pp
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	7.6%	11.7%	+4.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,536 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 10:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro

Up to 33.3 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	63.1%	78.3%	+15.2 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	88.6%	81.9%	-6.7 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,435 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 7:30 PM UTC

Internacional vs Botafogo

Up to 33.3 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	50.9%	34.0%	-16.8 pp
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.8%	0.1%	-0.7 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	1.6%	3.1%	+1.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,270 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 11:00 PM UTC

Corinthians vs Mirassol

Up to 32.1 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	38.9%	23.8%	-15.1 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	11.7%	18.6%	+6.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,499 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians

Up to 31.9 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	10.4%	3.0%	-7.5 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	38.9%	50.5%	+11.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,590 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Internacional

Up to 30.8 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	85.5%	92.4%	+7.0 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	50.9%	59.7%	+8.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,387 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 12:30 AM UTC

Bahia vs São Paulo

Up to 30.5 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	45.1%	59.6%	+14.4 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.8%	0.7%	-3.1 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,443 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 26, 6:30 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Up to 29.3 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	52.2%	63.9%	+11.8 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	75.7%	83.7%	+8.0 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	24.6%	14.6%	-10.0 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	52.6%	43.8%	-8.8 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,921 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam

Up to 28.9 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	56.4%	66.8%	+10.4 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	84.3%	89.5%	+5.2 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	32.9%	23.0%	-9.8 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	70.0%	63.7%	-6.2 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,470 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 10:30 PM UTC

Coritiba vs Grêmio

Up to 28.8 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	7.6%	1.0%	-6.6 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	70.7%	82.7%	+12.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,854 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR

Up to 28.6 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	70.7%	55.9%	-14.8 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	93.4%	89.6%	-3.8 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,348 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 11:00 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 27.5 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	58.6%	67.1%	+8.4 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	63.1%	56.3%	-6.8 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,151 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Palmeiras

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.2%	32.2%	+14.9 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	41.4%	27.2%	-14.2 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,766 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	10.4%	3.1%	-7.3 pp
FlamengoWin league	58.6%	43.8%	-14.9 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,707 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 8:00 PM UTC

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Up to 26.4 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BarcelonaWin league	75.6%	85.0%	+9.5 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.8%	100.0%	+0.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Real MadridWin league	17.4%	9.4%	-8.1 pp
Real MadridFinish top 4	97.8%	97.0%	-0.7 pp
Real MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,518 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 24, 2:30 PM UTC

Estrela vs Casa Pia

Up to 24.5 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstrelaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish bottom 2	11.9%	6.4%	-5.5 pp
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	51.1%	60.9%	+9.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,474 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Mans

Up to 24.3 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.4%	36.7%	-11.7 pp
Le MansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le MansFinish top 3	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Le MansFinish bottom 2	26.9%	34.9%	+8.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,195 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 25, 1:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi

Up to 23.9 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	37.4%	27.8%	-9.7 pp
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	39.9%	48.7%	+8.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,687 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 23.8 percentage points between scenarios · Brighton & Hove Albion: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	4.9%	6.8%	+1.9 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	56.6%	65.3%	+8.7 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	3.2%	2.2%	-1.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	47.4%	39.2%	-8.2 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,144 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Lille

Up to 23.7 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	4.7%	6.9%	+2.3 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	44.6%	55.0%	+10.4 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LilleWin league	2.3%	1.5%	-0.8 pp
LilleFinish top 3	30.5%	22.3%	-8.2 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,406 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino

Up to 22.7 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	41.4%	47.8%	+6.5 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.3%	1.1%	-1.2 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,768 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 2, 11:00 PM UTC

Red Bull Bragantino vs Santos

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Santos: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.3%	4.4%	+2.1 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.2%	9.6%	-7.6 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,635 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	49.5%	39.8%	-9.7 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	53.4%	62.2%	+8.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,147 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 2, 5:00 PM UTC

Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor

Up to 22.4 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	39.9%	27.3%	-12.6 pp
AlanyasporWin league	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
AlanyasporFinish top 2	0.7%	0.2%	-0.4 pp
AlanyasporFinish bottom 3	5.6%	8.5%	+2.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,428 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburg SV

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	41.7%	30.5%	-11.2 pp
Hamburg SVWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hamburg SVFinish top 4	2.3%	1.3%	-1.1 pp
Hamburg SVFinish bottom 2	9.8%	13.9%	+4.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,070 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 1, 3:30 PM UTC

Arouca vs C.D. Nacional

Up to 22.1 percentage points between scenarios · C.D. Nacional: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AroucaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AroucaFinish top 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
AroucaFinish bottom 2	1.0%	0.4%	-0.6 pp
C.D. NacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish bottom 2	41.0%	48.3%	+7.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,959 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 22.0 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	39.2%	31.8%	-7.5 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	41.7%	48.5%	+6.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,487 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

Parma vs Udinese

Up to 22.0 percentage points between scenarios · Parma: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	61.1%	49.5%	-11.6 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	44.3%	54.7%	+10.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,610 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 3, 7:45 PM UTC

Watford vs Lincoln City

Up to 21.7 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
WatfordWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
WatfordFinish bottom 3	25.4%	18.4%	-7.0 pp
WatfordAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	49.6%	57.8%	+8.2 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,863 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Lyon vs Angers

Up to 21.5 percentage points between scenarios · Angers: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LyonWin league	3.9%	4.8%	+1.0 pp
LyonFinish top 3	40.1%	44.4%	+4.3 pp
LyonFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
AngersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AngersFinish top 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
AngersFinish bottom 2	40.0%	44.3%	+4.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,807 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 30, 8:15 PM UTC

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	51.1%	33.3%	-17.8 pp
Sporting CPWin league	29.3%	19.1%	-10.2 pp
Sporting CPFinish top 2	61.3%	46.8%	-14.4 pp
Sporting CPFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 833 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 7:45 PM UTC

Juventus vs Napoli

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
JuventusWin league	5.8%	8.0%	+2.1 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	50.0%	59.2%	+9.2 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
NapoliWin league	1.8%	1.0%	-0.8 pp
NapoliFinish top 4	27.7%	21.0%	-6.7 pp
NapoliFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,655 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Fulham

Up to 21.0 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	49.5%	37.3%	-12.2 pp
FulhamWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FulhamFinish top 4	0.6%	0.3%	-0.3 pp
FulhamFinish bottom 3	20.3%	27.9%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,368 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Up to 20.9 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	75.5%	64.5%	-11.0 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.3%	0.1%	-0.2 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	38.6%	49.8%	+11.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,364 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

West Ham United vs Southampton

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · West Ham United: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
West Ham UnitedWin league	66.4%	73.1%	+6.7 pp
West Ham UnitedFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
West Ham UnitedAutomatic promotion	83.9%	88.3%	+4.4 pp
SouthamptonWin league	9.5%	5.7%	-3.8 pp
SouthamptonFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SouthamptonAutomatic promotion	28.1%	22.8%	-5.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,792 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 24, 3:15 PM UTC

Toulouse vs Troyes

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ToulouseWin league	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
ToulouseFinish top 3	5.6%	7.0%	+1.3 pp
ToulouseFinish bottom 2	1.4%	0.8%	-0.6 pp
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.4%	54.8%	+6.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,788 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

Lincoln City vs Burnley

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	49.6%	35.9%	-13.7 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
BurnleyWin league	0.3%	0.0%	-0.3 pp
BurnleyFinish bottom 3	2.3%	4.5%	+2.2 pp
BurnleyAutomatic promotion	1.8%	0.5%	-1.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,201 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 29, 5:30 PM UTC

Frosinone vs Lecce

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FrosinoneWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
FrosinoneFinish top 4	3.0%	4.2%	+1.2 pp
FrosinoneFinish bottom 3	4.8%	2.7%	-2.1 pp
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.7%	48.3%	+6.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,114 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 7:45 PM UTC

Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Lyon: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	84.6%	88.3%	+3.7 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	98.0%	98.8%	+0.8 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LyonWin league	3.9%	2.0%	-1.9 pp
LyonFinish top 3	40.1%	35.4%	-4.6 pp
LyonFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,722 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 24, 1:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurum BB

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	37.5%	28.4%	-9.0 pp
Erzurum BBWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish bottom 3	27.4%	35.0%	+7.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,341 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Genoa

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	41.7%	30.8%	-11.0 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.2%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	31.8%	41.9%	+10.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,349 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

FC Cologne vs Schalke 04

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FC CologneWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FC CologneFinish top 4	1.3%	1.9%	+0.6 pp
FC CologneFinish bottom 2	14.3%	8.7%	-5.6 pp
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	41.8%	49.0%	+7.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,177 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 25, 6:00 PM UTC

C.D. Nacional vs Braga

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · C.D. Nacional: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
C.D. NacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish bottom 2	41.0%	26.8%	-14.1 pp
BragaWin league	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
BragaFinish top 2	1.2%	0.5%	-0.7 pp
BragaFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,079 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

AC Milan vs Internazionale

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Internazionale: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AC MilanWin league	6.8%	12.3%	+5.5 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	51.0%	61.4%	+10.4 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
InternazionaleWin league	62.7%	51.9%	-10.9 pp
InternazionaleFinish top 4	95.2%	92.1%	-3.0 pp
InternazionaleFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,340 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 24, 2:15 PM UTC

Racing Santander vs Espanyol

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Racing Santander: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Racing SantanderWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Racing SantanderFinish top 4	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
Racing SantanderFinish bottom 3	36.5%	27.4%	-9.1 pp
EspanyolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EspanyolFinish top 4	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
EspanyolFinish bottom 3	24.8%	32.5%	+7.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,504 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 25, 3:30 PM UTC

Estoril vs Moreirense

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · Estoril: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstorilWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish bottom 2	29.3%	20.8%	-8.5 pp
MoreirenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MoreirenseFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MoreirenseFinish bottom 2	11.9%	16.1%	+4.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,548 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 12:30 PM UTC

Chelsea vs Manchester United

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · Chelsea: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ChelseaWin league	2.4%	3.4%	+1.0 pp
ChelseaFinish top 4	41.9%	50.4%	+8.4 pp
ChelseaFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Manchester UnitedWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Manchester UnitedFinish top 4	8.4%	5.1%	-3.4 pp
Manchester UnitedFinish bottom 3	3.1%	4.3%	+1.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,893 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 1, 11:15 AM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · PEC Zwolle: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	28.2%	18.9%	-9.3 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	26.2%	34.6%	+8.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,384 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · Brighton & Hove Albion: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Manchester CityWin league	40.8%	47.3%	+6.6 pp
Manchester CityFinish top 4	93.6%	96.2%	+2.6 pp
Manchester CityFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	3.2%	1.7%	-1.5 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	47.4%	41.4%	-6.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,614 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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