The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 11:00 PM UTC

Corinthians vs Mirassol

Up to 37.5 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	53.3%	35.2%	-18.1 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	16.5%	27.0%	+10.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,497 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 6, 12:30 AM UTC

Cruzeiro vs Bahia

Up to 37.3 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	94.6%	99.0%	+4.4 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	48.5%	37.3%	-11.3 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,337 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 12:30 AM UTC

Bahia vs São Paulo

Up to 36.9 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	48.5%	65.2%	+16.6 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.5%	0.6%	-2.9 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,431 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 12:30 AM UTC

Internacional vs Coritiba

Up to 35.2 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	30.3%	18.2%	-12.2 pp
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	8.7%	12.7%	+4.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,747 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

São Paulo vs Corinthians

Up to 34.7 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.5%	6.0%	+2.5 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	53.3%	64.2%	+10.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,547 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 10:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro

Up to 32.7 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	66.8%	82.1%	+15.3 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	94.6%	90.4%	-4.2 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,401 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 10:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Grêmio

Up to 31.3 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	53.3%	60.7%	+7.4 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	72.9%	78.3%	+5.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,842 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 10:30 PM UTC

Coritiba vs Grêmio

Up to 29.4 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	8.7%	0.9%	-7.8 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	72.9%	84.9%	+12.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,935 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Internacional

Up to 28.2 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	78.1%	88.6%	+10.6 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	30.3%	39.1%	+8.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,143 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

Botafogo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 27.8 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.3%	0.5%	+0.3 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	2.7%	0.4%	-2.3 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	66.8%	56.2%	-10.6 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,498 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 11:00 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 27.6 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	53.3%	61.3%	+8.0 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	66.8%	60.3%	-6.5 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,246 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	72.9%	58.9%	-13.9 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	94.2%	90.4%	-3.8 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,388 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Palmeiras

Up to 26.5 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	11.8%	24.3%	+12.6 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	46.7%	32.5%	-14.2 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,696 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Up to 26.0 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.3%	0.8%	+0.6 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	4.1%	0.9%	-3.2 pp
FlamengoWin league	53.3%	39.2%	-14.1 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,728 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 26, 6:30 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Up to 25.2 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	53.0%	63.0%	+10.0 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.3%	83.1%	+6.8 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	21.6%	13.2%	-8.5 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	49.6%	41.7%	-7.9 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,984 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 6, 11:00 PM UTC

Vitória vs Fluminense

Up to 24.7 percentage points between scenarios · Fluminense: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	11.4%	2.5%	-8.8 pp
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	78.1%	66.5%	-11.6 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,445 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 8, 3:30 PM UTC

Estoril vs Maritimo

Up to 24.5 percentage points between scenarios · Estoril: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstorilWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish bottom 2	40.4%	31.0%	-9.4 pp
MaritimoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MaritimoFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MaritimoFinish bottom 2	29.4%	36.3%	+6.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,214 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Nov 8, 6:30 PM UTC

TSG Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04

Up to 24.1 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TSG HoffenheimWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
TSG HoffenheimFinish top 4	8.9%	11.5%	+2.6 pp
TSG HoffenheimFinish bottom 2	2.8%	1.3%	-1.4 pp
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	43.8%	50.3%	+6.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,966 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 10:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Remo

Up to 23.8 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	46.7%	51.5%	+4.8 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish bottom 4	99.8%	99.9%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,610 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 3, 10:30 PM UTC

Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Up to 23.5 percentage points between scenarios · Mirassol: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ChapecoenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish bottom 4	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	16.5%	29.2%	+12.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,988 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Mans

Up to 23.3 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	44.1%	32.9%	-11.2 pp
Le MansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le MansFinish top 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Le MansFinish bottom 2	25.3%	33.6%	+8.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,226 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 6, 7:45 PM UTC

Venezia vs Udinese

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Venezia: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VeneziaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VeneziaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
VeneziaFinish bottom 3	37.1%	27.3%	-9.8 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	49.3%	57.1%	+7.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,615 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 8, 8:00 PM UTC

Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético MadridWin league	8.5%	14.7%	+6.2 pp
Atlético MadridFinish top 4	93.0%	95.7%	+2.7 pp
Atlético MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BarcelonaWin league	61.6%	50.6%	-11.0 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.7%	99.5%	-0.2 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,866 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 30, 6:00 PM UTC

Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	59.9%	41.3%	-18.5 pp
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	85.0%	76.0%	-9.0 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	97.8%	94.8%	-3.1 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,086 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 1, 11:15 AM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 22.4 percentage points between scenarios · ADO Den Haag: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	25.7%	16.2%	-9.5 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	32.4%	42.0%	+9.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,351 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · Hull City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	72.3%	59.6%	-12.7 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	39.6%	50.8%	+11.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,388 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Genoa

Up to 22.0 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	44.4%	32.5%	-11.9 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	21.2%	29.3%	+8.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,170 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

Parma vs Udinese

Up to 21.7 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	62.6%	52.4%	-10.1 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	49.3%	59.7%	+10.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,741 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 6, 5:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Kasimpasa

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	49.9%	38.8%	-11.1 pp
KasimpasaWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
KasimpasaFinish top 2	0.7%	0.4%	-0.3 pp
KasimpasaFinish bottom 3	2.6%	4.0%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,709 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Borussia Mönchengladbach: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.6%	1.0%	+0.4 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	29.5%	22.0%	-7.5 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	34.4%	41.1%	+6.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,529 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 7, 3:00 PM UTC

Arsenal vs Hull City

Up to 21.2 percentage points between scenarios · Hull City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ArsenalWin league	56.0%	58.8%	+2.8 pp
ArsenalFinish top 4	97.2%	97.8%	+0.6 pp
ArsenalFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	72.3%	74.5%	+2.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 8,135 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 7:45 PM UTC

Juventus vs Napoli

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
JuventusWin league	6.0%	8.4%	+2.3 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	51.4%	60.2%	+8.8 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
NapoliWin league	1.2%	0.6%	-0.6 pp
NapoliFinish top 4	23.9%	17.9%	-6.0 pp
NapoliFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,616 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 7, 1:00 PM UTC

Samsunspor vs Konyaspor

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Samsunspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SamsunsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish bottom 3	36.7%	27.4%	-9.3 pp
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	25.8%	33.5%	+7.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,533 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Up to 21.0 percentage points between scenarios · Sunderland: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	54.8%	45.0%	-9.8 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	54.3%	63.3%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,017 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 6, 8:00 PM UTC

Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · Derby County: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Derby CountyWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Derby CountyFinish bottom 3	33.8%	25.7%	-8.1 pp
Derby CountyAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Bolton WanderersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Bolton WanderersFinish bottom 3	37.8%	44.4%	+6.6 pp
Bolton WanderersAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,202 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 7, 4:00 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Amed SFK

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	53.0%	59.5%	+6.5 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.3%	81.8%	+5.5 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Amed SFKWin league	5.6%	3.0%	-2.6 pp
Amed SFKFinish top 2	16.5%	11.9%	-4.5 pp
Amed SFKFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,407 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	43.8%	29.8%	-14.0 pp
RB LeipzigWin league	1.1%	0.5%	-0.5 pp
RB LeipzigFinish top 4	51.9%	40.6%	-11.3 pp
RB LeipzigFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,373 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 7, 1:00 PM UTC

Málaga vs Racing Santander

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Málaga: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	67.0%	57.2%	-9.8 pp
Racing SantanderWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Racing SantanderFinish top 4	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
Racing SantanderFinish bottom 3	30.1%	39.1%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,503 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 27, 7:45 PM UTC

Torino vs Como

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Como: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TorinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TorinoFinish top 4	1.3%	2.8%	+1.5 pp
TorinoFinish bottom 3	6.6%	3.6%	-3.0 pp
ComoWin league	4.5%	2.0%	-2.5 pp
ComoFinish top 4	44.4%	33.1%	-11.3 pp
ComoFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,783 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Brighton & Hove Albion: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Manchester CityWin league	32.0%	37.6%	+5.5 pp
Manchester CityFinish top 4	92.4%	95.2%	+2.8 pp
Manchester CityFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	2.0%	1.0%	-1.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	39.4%	33.0%	-6.4 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,705 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 8, 2:00 PM UTC

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Sunderland: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	54.3%	41.0%	-13.3 pp
ChelseaWin league	1.6%	0.5%	-1.1 pp
ChelseaFinish top 4	31.6%	22.0%	-9.6 pp
ChelseaFinish bottom 3	0.3%	0.7%	+0.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,418 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 31, 5:45 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Up to 20.4 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	49.8%	51.5%	+1.8 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	80.2%	81.7%	+1.6 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish bottom 2	91.6%	92.2%	+0.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 9,047 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 8, 3:45 PM UTC

SC Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

Up to 20.4 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SC CambuurWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish bottom 2	10.4%	3.8%	-6.6 pp
PSV EindhovenWin league	49.8%	33.3%	-16.4 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	80.2%	65.9%	-14.3 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,158 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 2:00 PM UTC

Stade Rennais vs Lille

Up to 20.4 percentage points between scenarios · Lille: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Stade RennaisWin league	2.1%	3.1%	+1.0 pp
Stade RennaisFinish top 3	26.7%	35.6%	+8.9 pp
Stade RennaisFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
LilleWin league	1.7%	0.9%	-0.8 pp
LilleFinish top 3	28.7%	19.9%	-8.8 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,142 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 8, 1:30 PM UTC

FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Ajax Amsterdam: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FC TwenteWin league	3.4%	5.5%	+2.1 pp
FC TwenteFinish top 2	13.3%	19.4%	+6.1 pp
FC TwenteFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ajax AmsterdamWin league	8.6%	4.8%	-3.7 pp
Ajax AmsterdamFinish top 2	26.4%	17.3%	-9.2 pp
Ajax AmsterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,112 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 7, 2:00 PM UTC

Torino vs Lecce

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TorinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TorinoFinish top 4	1.3%	1.8%	+0.4 pp
TorinoFinish bottom 3	6.6%	4.0%	-2.6 pp
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	44.4%	51.8%	+7.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,910 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 4:15 PM UTC

Angers vs Nice

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Angers: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AngersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AngersFinish top 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
AngersFinish bottom 2	39.9%	28.8%	-11.1 pp
NiceWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
NiceFinish top 3	1.9%	1.2%	-0.7 pp
NiceFinish bottom 2	4.4%	7.2%	+2.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,361 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 8, 5:00 PM UTC

Internazionale vs Como

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · Internazionale: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternazionaleWin league	64.7%	71.6%	+6.9 pp
InternazionaleFinish top 4	95.6%	97.4%	+1.9 pp
InternazionaleFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ComoWin league	4.5%	2.3%	-2.3 pp
ComoFinish top 4	44.4%	39.9%	-4.5 pp
ComoFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,610 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 8, 4:15 PM UTC

Brest vs Lyon

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · Lyon: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BrestWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BrestFinish top 3	1.3%	2.4%	+1.1 pp
BrestFinish bottom 2	6.9%	3.2%	-3.7 pp
LyonWin league	3.2%	1.8%	-1.4 pp
LyonFinish top 3	36.7%	26.9%	-9.9 pp
LyonFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,326 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 7, 5:45 PM UTC

ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

Up to 19.8 percentage points between scenarios · ADO Den Haag: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	32.4%	23.0%	-9.4 pp
Sparta RotterdamWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Sparta RotterdamFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Sparta RotterdamFinish bottom 2	10.5%	15.0%	+4.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,051 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Showing 50 of 224 matches. Filter by club or league to narrow the view.