Pollster record · how records are scored
Public Opinion Strategies
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2024 · 84% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.24
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.56; 42% own record)
Average miss
6.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
217
171 races · 10 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 3 | 5.4 | +0.2 | D+0.1 |
| 2000 | 5 | 5.7 | +0.6 | D+1.3 |
| 2002 | 23 | 5.4 | −1.5 | Even |
| 2004 | 17 | 5.8 | +0.5 | R+1.2 |
| 2006 | 21 | 10.6 | +3.7 | R+5.9 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0.1 | −2.3 | — |
| 2008 | 27 | 6.2 | +1.8 | R+1.5 |
| 2009 | 1 | 21.9 | +13.9 | R+9.7 |
| 2010 | 35 | 5.6 | −1.6 | D+0.9 |
| 2012 | 34 | 6.4 | +1.5 | R+1.3 |
| 2014 | 15 | 4.9 | −0.7 | D+0.7 |
| 2016 | 14 | 7.6 | −0.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2018 | 7 | 5.0 | +1.7 | R+0.9 |
| 2020 | 5 | 4.5 | −1.3 | D+1.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | 6.3 | +2.7 | D+5.9 |
| 2024 | 5 | 2.7 | −1.7 | D+2.2 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | PA-1 | Bob Harvie v. Brian Fitzpatrick | R+9 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Governor NV | Aaron Ford v. Joe Lombardo | R+9 |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Senate SD | Brian Bengs v. Mike Rounds | R+23 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Governor NV | Aaron Ford v. Joe Lombardo | R+9 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Governor OR | Tina Kotek v. Christine Drazan | R+4 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+19 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+3 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Generic ballot | R+2 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 House, MI-8R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+6.6 | R+7.6 | — |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MTR-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+7.1 | D+1.1 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 Governor, MTR-ALIGNED | R+19 | R+20.2 | D+1.2 | R+0.3 |
| Sep 23, 2024 | 2024 House, WI-3R-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+2.7 | R+2.3 | D+0.3 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | 2024 House, PA-1R-ALIGNED | R+14 | R+12.8 | R+1.2 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballotR-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+2.6 | D+8.6 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 11, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+2 | R+2.6 | D+4.6 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 6, 2022 | 2022 House, CT-5R-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+0.2 | D+1.8 | R+0.5 |
| Sep 8, 2022 | 2022 House, PA-1R-ALIGNED | R+20 | R+9.7 | R+10.3 | — |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 House, NY-24R-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+2.4 | R+5.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 House, CA-39R-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+1.2 | D+0.2 | — |
| Oct 8, 2020 | 2020 PresidentR-ALIGNED | D+14 | D+4.4 | D+9.6 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 House, IL-17R-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+4.1 | D+1.9 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 5, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-23R-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+4.0 | D+5.0 | — |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-45R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+4.1 | R+8.1 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2018 Senate, WVR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+3.3 | R+2.3 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2018 House, KY-6R-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 House, FL-16R-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+9.1 | R+0.9 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-1R-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+2.5 | R+5.5 | D+2.0 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-49R-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+12.8 | R+10.8 | R+1.8 |
| Sep 18, 2018 | 2018 House, MI-8R-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+3.8 | R+5.8 | R+4.9 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 House, IN-9 | R+2 | R+13.7 | D+11.7 | D+8.4 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 Governor, IN | Even | R+6.0 | D+6.0 | D+10.8 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 Senate, IN | R+5 | R+9.7 | D+4.7 | D+11.1 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 President, IN | R+11 | R+19.2 | D+8.2 | D+9.5 |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2016 House, WI-8R-ALIGNED | R+11 | R+25.3 | D+14.3 | — |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2016 House, MI-8 | R+18 | R+16.9 | R+1.1 | D+7.0 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NV | R+3 | D+2.4 | R+5.4 | R+3.5 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 President, NV | D+6 | D+2.4 | D+3.6 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 5, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-49R-ALIGNED | R+9 | R+0.5 | R+8.5 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 President, IN | R+5 | R+19.2 | D+14.2 | D+9.5 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 Governor, IN | D+2 | R+6.0 | D+8.0 | D+10.8 |
| Oct 4, 2016 | 2016 Senate, IN | D+1 | R+9.7 | D+10.7 | D+11.1 |
| Oct 2, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-7R-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+2.3 | R+7.3 | D+0.8 |
| Sep 11, 2016 | 2016 House, MI-8R-ALIGNED | R+19 | R+16.9 | R+2.1 | D+7.0 |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NCR-ALIGNED | Even | R+1.6 | D+1.6 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, KYR-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+15.5 | D+8.5 | D+9.8 |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-18R-ALIGNED | Even | D+5.2 | R+5.2 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2014 Senate, SDR-ALIGNED | R+24 | R+20.9 | R+3.1 | D+8.3 |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-19R-ALIGNED | R+26 | R+19.8 | R+6.2 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 12, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-18R-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+5.2 | R+1.2 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 6, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NCR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+1.6 | D+3.6 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 6, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MNR-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+10.2 | R+3.2 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 6, 2014 | 2014 Governor, NMR-ALIGNED | R+19 | R+14.4 | R+4.6 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 24, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-1R-ALIGNED | Even | R+4.9 | D+4.9 | D+8.1 |
| Sep 22, 2014 | 2014 House, NY-24R-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+10.4 | D+13.4 | D+10.5 |
| Sep 17, 2014 | 2014 House, IL-13R-ALIGNED | R+19 | R+17.3 | R+1.7 | D+2.3 |
| Sep 17, 2014 | 2014 House, KY-6R-ALIGNED | R+19 | R+20.0 | D+1.0 | D+7.1 |
| Sep 16, 2014 | 2014 House, GA-12R-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+9.5 | D+11.5 | D+6.9 |
| Sep 10, 2014 | 2014 Governor, RIR-ALIGNED | Even | D+4.5 | R+4.5 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 30, 2012 | 2012 President, MNR-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+7.7 | R+8.7 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 30, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NMR-ALIGNED | Even | D+5.7 | R+5.7 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 30, 2012 | 2012 President, NMR-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+10.1 | R+2.1 | R+1.2 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-21R-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+5.0 | R+3.0 | R+1.2 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-19R-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+0.8 | R+9.2 | R+6.1 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NER-ALIGNED | R+16 | R+15.5 | R+0.5 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 President, NER-ALIGNED | R+18 | R+21.8 | D+3.8 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 22, 2012 | 2012 House, TN-4R-ALIGNED | R+13 | R+11.5 | R+1.5 | — |
| Oct 21, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NMR-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+5.7 | R+6.7 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 21, 2012 | 2012 President, NMR-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+10.1 | R+5.1 | R+1.2 |