Pollster record · how records are scored
Triton Polling & Research
Method: ivr · scored polls from 2018 to 2022
Versus the field
+0.07
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.09; 7% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
11.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
12
10 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | 5.4 | −1.0 | R+3.9 |
| 2020 | 4 | 19.6 | +3.5 | D+3.4 |
| 2022 | 3 | 10.7 | +2.4 | R+4.2 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | MT-1 | Sam Forstag v. Aaron Flint | R+1 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+26 |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+5 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WA | D+5 | D+14.5 | R+9.3 | R+6.1 |
| Sep 22, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-19R-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+1.9 | R+7.7 | D+6.9 |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-19R-ALIGNED | R+10 | D+5.3 | R+15.1 | R+12.5 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 Governor, WV | R+18 | R+33.9 | D+15.7 | D+16.6 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, WV | R+20 | R+38.9 | D+18.8 | D+15.7 |
| Sep 30, 2020 | 2020 Governor, WV | R+11 | R+33.9 | D+22.9 | D+16.6 |
| Sep 30, 2020 | 2020 President, WV | R+18 | R+38.9 | D+20.9 | D+15.7 |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | R+2 | D+8.5 | R+10.3 | R+0.6 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 Governor, OH | R+5 | R+3.7 | R+1.0 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 Senate, OH | D+10 | D+6.8 | D+3.4 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Governor, TN | R+16 | R+21.0 | D+4.6 | D+6.3 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TN | R+3 | R+10.8 | D+7.5 | D+6.9 |