House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

The Bullfinch Group

Method not recorded · scored polls from 2024 to 2024

Versus the field
+0.30
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +3.09; 10% own record)
Average miss
6.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.5
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
13
11 races · 24 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2024136.9+3.1D+3.0
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Aug 17, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Aug 7, 2026Senate IDTodd Achilles v. James RischR+4
Aug 3, 2026IL-4Patty Garcia v. Lupe CastilloD+19
Jul 16, 2026IA-1Christina Bohannan v. Mariannette Miller-MeeksD+5
Jul 16, 2026Senate MTAlani Bankhead v. Kurt AlmeR+14
Jun 16, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Jun 2, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Jun 1, 2026Senate IDTodd Achilles v. James RischR+4
Feb 16, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Jan 1, 2026Generic ballotD+11
Nov 25, 2025Generic ballotD+6
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 18, 20242024 President, WID+3R+0.9D+3.4D+2.9
Oct 18, 20242024 Senate, WID+4D+0.8D+3.2D+2.9
Oct 17, 20242024 President, MID+8R+1.4D+9.4D+3.5
Oct 17, 20242024 President, PAD+1R+1.7D+2.2D+2.5
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, MID+9D+0.3D+8.7D+4.0
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, PAD+7R+0.2D+7.2D+4.6
Oct 1, 20242024 President, NER+11R+20.5D+9.5D+4.0
Sep 29, 20242024 President, PAD+4R+1.7D+5.7D+2.5
Sep 29, 20242024 Senate, PAD+10R+0.2D+9.7D+4.6
Sep 23, 20242024 President, FLR+1R+13.1D+12.1D+7.1
Sep 23, 20242024 President, GAD+2R+2.2D+4.2D+1.5
Sep 23, 20242024 President, NCD+1R+3.2D+4.2D+2.5
Sep 23, 20242024 Senate, FLR+2R+12.8D+10.8D+7.9