Pollster record · how records are scored
Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2000 to 2025
Versus the field
+0.27
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +2.87; 11% own record)
Average miss
7.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
38
19 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 6 | 6.1 | −0.0 | D+1.3 |
| 2001 | 3 | 2.1 | −1.3 | R+0.9 |
| 2002 | 5 | 11.0 | +8.3 | R+8.8 |
| 2004 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.3 | D+0.6 |
| 2005 | 2 | 3.9 | +0.9 | R+1.5 |
| 2006 | 2 | 13.5 | +1.8 | R+2.3 |
| 2009 | 1 | 6.6 | +2.5 | D+3.6 |
| 2010 | 2 | 4.2 | −0.5 | D+0.8 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0.7 | −5.0 | D+4.9 |
| 2013 | 5 | 11.0 | +6.1 | D+3.7 |
| 2018 | 1 | 6.2 | +2.2 | R+3.0 |
| 2020 | 2 | 10.9 | +5.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2021 | 1 | 4.8 | +1.2 | R+0.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | 14.5 | +6.4 | D+6.6 |
| 2025 | 1 | 9.4 | +0.1 | D+0.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | MT-1 | Sam Forstag v. Aaron Flint | R+1 |
| Sep 7, 2026 | MT-2 | Brian Miller v. Troy Downing | R+22 |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+22 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ | D+5 | D+14.4 | R+9.4 | R+9.5 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NJ | D+28 | D+9.6 | D+17.9 | D+7.8 |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, NJ | D+17 | D+5.9 | D+11.1 | D+7.9 |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2021 Governor, NJ | D+8 | D+3.2 | D+4.8 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NJ | D+30 | D+16.3 | D+13.7 | D+7.2 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 President, NJ | D+24 | D+15.9 | D+8.1 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NJ | D+5 | D+11.2 | R+6.2 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 2013 Governor, NJ | R+36 | R+22.1 | R+13.9 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 2013 Governor, NJ | R+26 | R+22.1 | R+3.9 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 10, 2013 | 2013 Senate, NJ | D+22 | D+10.9 | D+11.1 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 6, 2013 | 2013 Senate, NJ | D+35 | D+10.9 | D+24.1 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 6, 2013 | 2013 Governor, NJ | R+20 | R+22.1 | D+2.1 | R+2.8 |
| Sep 29, 2012 | 2012 President, NJ | D+17 | D+17.7 | R+0.7 | R+5.6 |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 2010 House, NJ-3 | D+1 | R+2.7 | D+3.7 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 25, 2010 | 2010 House, NJ-3 | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 17, 2009 | 2009 Governor, NJ | D+3 | R+3.6 | D+6.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 30, 2006 | 2006 Senate, NJ | D+4 | D+16.0 | R+12.0 | R+11.2 |
| Sep 24, 2006 | 2006 Senate, NJ | D+1 | D+16.0 | R+15.0 | R+11.2 |
| Nov 3, 2005 | 2005 Governor, NJ | D+6 | D+10.4 | R+4.4 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 5, 2005 | 2005 Governor, NJ | D+7 | D+10.4 | R+3.4 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 28, 2004 | 2004 President, NJ | D+4 | D+6.7 | R+2.7 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 16, 2004 | 2004 President, NJ | D+13 | D+6.7 | D+6.3 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 3, 2004 | 2004 President, NJ | D+6 | D+6.7 | R+0.7 | R+1.0 |
| Sep 5, 2004 | 2004 President, NJ | D+2 | D+6.7 | R+4.7 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 29, 2002 | 2002 Senate, NJ | D+12 | D+9.9 | D+2.1 | R+1.3 |
| Oct 15, 2002 | 2002 Senate, NJ | D+5 | D+9.9 | R+4.9 | R+1.3 |
| Oct 5, 2002 | 2002 Senate, NJ | Even | D+9.9 | R+9.9 | R+1.3 |
| Sep 22, 2002 | 2002 Senate, NJ | R+13 | D+9.9 | R+22.9 | R+1.3 |
| Sep 5, 2002 | 2002 Senate, NJ | R+5 | D+9.9 | R+14.9 | R+1.3 |
| Nov 1, 2001 | 2001 Governor, NJ | D+17 | D+14.8 | D+2.2 | D+1.2 |
| Oct 15, 2001 | 2001 Governor, NJ | D+12 | D+14.8 | R+2.8 | D+1.2 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | 2001 Governor, NJ | D+16 | D+14.8 | D+1.2 | D+1.2 |
| Oct 25, 2000 | 2000 President, NJ | D+12 | D+15.8 | R+3.8 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 25, 2000 | 2000 Senate, NJ | D+10 | D+3.0 | D+7.0 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 14, 2000 | 2000 Senate, NJ | D+11 | D+3.0 | D+8.0 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 14, 2000 | 2000 President, NJ | D+8 | D+15.8 | R+7.8 | R+3.9 |
| Sep 10, 2000 | 2000 Senate, NJ | D+10 | D+3.0 | D+7.0 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 10, 2000 | 2000 President, NJ | D+13 | D+15.8 | R+2.8 | R+3.9 |