Pollster record · how records are scored
Montana State University Billings
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2000 to 2024
Versus the field
+0.11
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.79; 13% own record)
Average miss
5.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
33
33 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 4 | 5.6 | +0.7 | D+5.6 |
| 2002 | 1 | 2.0 | −4.0 | D+8.0 |
| 2004 | 2 | 5.0 | +2.7 | D+6.1 |
| 2006 | 2 | 6.7 | +2.9 | D+2.1 |
| 2008 | 3 | 2.8 | −5.2 | D+4.3 |
| 2012 | 4 | 3.4 | −1.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2014 | 2 | 4.8 | +1.2 | D+2.2 |
| 2016 | 3 | 5.3 | −1.0 | R+1.2 |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.5 | +0.1 | D+3.1 |
| 2020 | 4 | 11.3 | +2.5 | D+2.4 |
| 2022 | 2 | 5.8 | +2.2 | D+3.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | 6.3 | +3.9 | D+1.8 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | MT-1 | Sam Forstag v. Aaron Flint | D+17 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | MT-2 | Brian Miller v. Troy Downing | R+11 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Senate MT | Alani Bankhead v. Kurt Alme | R+9 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MT | Even | R+7.1 | D+7.1 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 President, MT | R+18 | R+19.9 | D+1.9 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 House, MT-2 | R+17 | R+32.0 | D+15.0 | — |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 Governor, MT | R+19 | R+20.2 | D+1.2 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2022 House, MT-2 | R+26 | R+36.4 | D+10.4 | — |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2022 House, MT-1 | R+2 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 | R+2.2 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MT | D+1 | R+10.0 | D+11.0 | D+7.4 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 President, MT | R+7 | R+16.4 | D+9.4 | D+8.9 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 House, MT-1 | R+1 | R+12.8 | D+11.8 | D+12.1 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 Governor, MT | Even | R+12.9 | D+12.9 | D+6.8 |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MT | D+9 | D+3.6 | D+5.4 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2018 House, MT-1 | R+3 | R+4.6 | D+1.6 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 7, 2016 | 2016 Governor, MT | D+12 | D+3.9 | D+8.1 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 7, 2016 | 2016 President, MT | R+16 | R+20.4 | D+4.4 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 7, 2016 | 2016 House, MT-1 | R+19 | R+15.6 | R+3.4 | D+6.6 |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2014 House, MT-1 | R+7 | R+15.0 | D+8.0 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MT | R+16 | R+17.7 | D+1.6 | D+1.2 |
| Sep 29, 2012 | 2012 House, MT-1 | R+13 | R+10.5 | R+2.5 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 29, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MT | R+3 | D+3.7 | R+6.6 | R+5.5 |
| Sep 29, 2012 | 2012 Governor, MT | R+2 | D+1.6 | R+3.8 | R+1.3 |
| Sep 29, 2012 | 2012 President, MT | R+15 | R+13.7 | R+0.8 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 18, 2008 | 2008 House, MT-1 | R+34 | R+31.7 | R+2.2 | D+6.7 |
| Oct 18, 2008 | 2008 Governor, MT | D+33 | D+33.0 | R+0.1 | R+12.5 |
| Oct 18, 2008 | 2008 President, MT | D+4 | R+2.3 | D+6.3 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 12, 2006 | 2006 Senate, MT | D+11 | D+0.9 | D+10.1 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 12, 2006 | 2006 House, MT-1 | R+23 | R+19.8 | R+3.3 | R+2.3 |
| Oct 9, 2004 | 2004 Governor, MT | D+14 | D+4.4 | D+9.6 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 9, 2004 | 2004 President, MT | R+21 | R+20.5 | R+0.5 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 12, 2002 | 2002 Senate, MT | D+33 | D+31.0 | D+2.0 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 21, 2000 | 2000 House, MT-1 | R+2 | R+5.2 | D+3.2 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 21, 2000 | 2000 Senate, MT | D+2 | R+3.3 | D+5.3 | R+4.3 |
| Oct 21, 2000 | 2000 Governor, MT | D+3 | R+3.9 | D+6.9 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 21, 2000 | 2000 President, MT | R+18 | R+25.1 | D+7.1 | D+4.9 |