Pollster record · how records are scored
Alaska Survey Research
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2004 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.10
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.15; 11% own record)
Average miss
6.2
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
40
22 races · 7 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2 | 5.3 | −0.1 | D+2.3 |
| 2006 | 2 | 3.6 | −2.0 | R+8.5 |
| 2008 | 7 | 6.0 | −0.9 | R+0.2 |
| 2010 | 3 | 6.3 | −4.0 | R+9.5 |
| 2014 | 2 | 12.8 | +8.6 | D+14.7 |
| 2016 | 3 | 5.0 | −5.7 | R+7.0 |
| 2018 | 9 | 5.2 | −3.4 | D+9.9 |
| 2020 | 3 | 8.6 | +2.5 | D+4.0 |
| 2022 | 5 | 6.6 | +1.3 | D+3.6 |
| 2024 | 4 | 5.5 | +1.7 | — |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+1 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+4 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+5 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+2 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | D+2 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Senate AK | Mary Peltola v. Dan Sullivan | R+4 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2024 President, AK | R+9 | R+13.1 | D+4.1 | — |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 President, AK | R+8 | R+13.1 | D+5.6 | — |
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 President, AK | R+9 | R+13.1 | D+4.1 | — |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 2024 President, AK | R+5 | R+13.1 | D+8.1 | — |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2022 House, AK-1 | D+20 | D+9.9 | D+10.1 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 2022 House, AK-1 | D+13 | D+9.9 | D+2.9 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AK | R+14 | R+26.1 | D+12.5 | D+2.6 |
| Jul 25, 2022 | 2022 House, AK-1 | D+1 | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | — |
| Jul 5, 2022 | 2022 House, AK-1 | R+3 | D+3.0 | R+5.5 | — |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, AK | R+4 | R+10.1 | D+6.1 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 House, AK-1 | D+2 | R+9.1 | D+11.1 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AK | R+4 | R+12.7 | D+8.7 | D+8.1 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 House, AK-1 | D+1 | R+6.6 | D+7.6 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 29, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AK | Even | R+7.0 | D+6.8 | R+16.9 |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AK | R+5 | R+7.0 | D+2.4 | R+16.9 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AK | R+12 | R+7.0 | R+4.9 | R+16.9 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 House, AK-1 | R+2 | R+6.6 | D+4.6 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2018 House, AK-1 | R+4 | R+6.6 | D+2.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AK | R+18 | R+7.0 | R+10.6 | R+16.9 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 House, AK-1 | R+11 | R+6.6 | R+4.7 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AK | R+9 | R+7.0 | R+2.2 | R+16.9 |
| Sep 30, 2016 | 2016 Senate, AK | R+38 | R+32.7 | R+5.0 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 30, 2016 | 2016 House, AK-1 | R+15 | R+14.3 | R+0.7 | D+8.4 |
| Sep 30, 2016 | 2016 President, AK | R+6 | R+14.7 | D+9.2 | D+11.7 |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2014 Senate, AK | D+8 | R+2.1 | D+10.0 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2014 House, AK-1 | D+6 | R+10.0 | D+15.5 | R+3.8 |
| Sep 25, 2010 | 2010 House, AK-1 | R+33 | R+38.4 | D+5.6 | D+16.4 |
| Sep 25, 2010 | 2010 Senate, AK | R+22 | R+12.1 | R+10.0 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 25, 2010 | 2010 Governor, AK | R+18 | R+21.4 | D+3.1 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 18, 2008 | 2008 House, AK-1 | D+8 | R+5.2 | D+13.2 | D+11.3 |
| Oct 18, 2008 | 2008 Senate, AK | D+1 | D+1.2 | R+0.2 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 18, 2008 | 2008 President, AK | R+11 | R+21.5 | D+10.5 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 5, 2008 | 2008 President, AK | R+17 | R+21.5 | D+4.5 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 5, 2008 | 2008 Senate, AK | D+4 | D+1.2 | D+2.8 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 21, 2008 | 2008 House, AK-1 | D+5 | R+5.2 | D+10.2 | D+11.3 |
| Sep 21, 2008 | 2008 Senate, AK | D+2 | D+1.2 | D+0.8 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 9, 2006 | 2006 Governor, AK | R+11 | R+7.4 | R+3.6 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 3, 2006 | 2006 Governor, AK | R+11 | R+7.4 | R+3.6 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 16, 2004 | 2004 Senate, AK | D+2 | R+3.0 | D+4.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 30, 2004 | 2004 Senate, AK | D+3 | R+3.0 | D+5.9 | D+3.0 |