The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 11:00 PM UTC

Corinthians vs Mirassol

Up to 37.8 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	52.4%	35.2%	-17.2 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	16.9%	26.7%	+9.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,494 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 6, 12:30 AM UTC

Cruzeiro vs Bahia

Up to 35.3 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	94.9%	99.0%	+4.1 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	49.2%	38.0%	-11.2 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,343 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 12:30 AM UTC

Internacional vs Coritiba

Up to 35.0 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	29.4%	17.1%	-12.3 pp
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	8.8%	12.7%	+3.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,829 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

São Paulo vs Corinthians

Up to 34.1 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.3%	5.8%	+2.5 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	52.4%	63.1%	+10.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,604 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 12:30 AM UTC

Bahia vs São Paulo

Up to 33.5 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	49.2%	63.9%	+14.6 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.3%	0.6%	-2.7 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,469 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 10:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Grêmio

Up to 33.0 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	53.7%	60.4%	+6.8 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	73.7%	79.4%	+5.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,946 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam

Up to 32.7 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	54.8%	66.7%	+11.9 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	83.5%	89.8%	+6.3 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	33.3%	22.9%	-10.4 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	69.3%	62.5%	-6.8 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,444 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 10:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro

Up to 32.5 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	66.9%	82.3%	+15.4 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	94.9%	91.2%	-3.8 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,419 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 10:30 PM UTC

Coritiba vs Grêmio

Up to 32.3 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	8.8%	1.3%	-7.6 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	73.7%	87.1%	+13.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,981 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 11:00 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 27.7 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	53.7%	62.2%	+8.6 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	66.9%	61.2%	-5.7 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,297 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Internacional

Up to 27.6 percentage points between scenarios · Fluminense: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	76.8%	87.6%	+10.8 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	29.4%	36.9%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,243 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 26, 6:30 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Up to 27.5 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	53.9%	64.9%	+11.0 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.1%	83.4%	+7.3 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	22.1%	13.8%	-8.2 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	48.9%	40.9%	-8.0 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,971 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

Botafogo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	2.9%	0.5%	-2.4 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	66.9%	56.6%	-10.3 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,445 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Up to 26.8 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.2%	0.7%	+0.5 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	4.5%	0.8%	-3.7 pp
FlamengoWin league	53.7%	38.4%	-15.3 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,602 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 10:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Remo

Up to 26.7 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	46.3%	51.4%	+5.1 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish bottom 4	99.8%	100.0%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,642 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 8:00 PM UTC

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Up to 26.4 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BarcelonaWin league	73.7%	83.6%	+9.9 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.8%	100.0%	+0.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Real MadridWin league	18.6%	10.1%	-8.4 pp
Real MadridFinish top 4	98.1%	97.5%	-0.6 pp
Real MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,380 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Palmeiras

Up to 24.7 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	12.1%	25.1%	+13.0 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	46.3%	32.9%	-13.4 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,783 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR

Up to 24.6 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	73.7%	61.3%	-12.4 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	94.4%	90.8%	-3.6 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,268 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 24.3 percentage points between scenarios · Liverpool: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	5.5%	7.2%	+1.6 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	58.6%	68.3%	+9.7 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	2.8%	1.8%	-1.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	46.2%	38.4%	-7.7 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,077 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 31, 5:45 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Up to 24.1 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	54.8%	56.5%	+1.6 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	83.5%	84.7%	+1.1 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish bottom 2	91.9%	92.2%	+0.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 9,084 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Mans

Up to 23.9 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	48.5%	37.5%	-11.0 pp
Le MansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le MansFinish top 3	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Le MansFinish bottom 2	27.0%	36.3%	+9.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,154 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 6, 11:00 PM UTC

Vitória vs Fluminense

Up to 23.9 percentage points between scenarios · Fluminense: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	11.4%	2.5%	-8.9 pp
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	76.8%	65.6%	-11.2 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,501 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 7, 4:00 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Amed SFK

Up to 23.5 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	53.9%	60.1%	+6.2 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	76.1%	81.7%	+5.6 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Amed SFKWin league	5.0%	2.6%	-2.3 pp
Amed SFKFinish top 2	15.5%	11.6%	-3.9 pp
Amed SFKFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,421 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 23.2 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.4%	0.7%	+0.2 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	28.8%	21.9%	-6.9 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	34.5%	42.3%	+7.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,476 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 1, 11:15 AM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 23.1 percentage points between scenarios · PEC Zwolle: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	26.6%	15.9%	-10.6 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	33.4%	44.3%	+10.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,266 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Genoa

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	42.3%	30.2%	-12.0 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	30.6%	39.9%	+9.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,251 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 7, 1:00 PM UTC

Samsunspor vs Konyaspor

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Konyaspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SamsunsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish bottom 3	36.1%	27.3%	-8.8 pp
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	36.1%	44.7%	+8.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,494 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

Parma vs Udinese

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Parma: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	64.2%	52.8%	-11.5 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	42.9%	52.6%	+9.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,687 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Up to 22.6 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	75.2%	64.3%	-11.0 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	38.9%	50.9%	+12.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,321 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 3, 10:30 PM UTC

Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Up to 22.4 percentage points between scenarios · Mirassol: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ChapecoenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish bottom 4	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	16.9%	28.9%	+12.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,079 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 25, 1:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	36.1%	27.3%	-8.8 pp
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	38.1%	46.5%	+8.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,750 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 30, 6:00 PM UTC

Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain

Up to 21.7 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	56.9%	38.9%	-18.0 pp
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	84.5%	73.1%	-11.4 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	97.8%	95.1%	-2.7 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,079 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 6, 7:45 PM UTC

Venezia vs Udinese

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VeneziaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VeneziaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
VeneziaFinish bottom 3	32.4%	24.5%	-8.0 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	42.9%	51.8%	+8.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,606 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 7:45 PM UTC

Juventus vs Napoli

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
JuventusWin league	5.4%	7.5%	+2.2 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	47.1%	56.2%	+9.1 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
NapoliWin league	1.5%	0.6%	-0.9 pp
NapoliFinish top 4	24.6%	18.4%	-6.2 pp
NapoliFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.4%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,603 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Lille

Up to 21.2 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	5.3%	7.4%	+2.1 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	48.1%	57.3%	+9.1 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
LilleWin league	1.9%	1.0%	-0.9 pp
LilleFinish top 3	29.2%	22.3%	-6.9 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,596 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 6, 5:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Kasimpasa

Up to 21.0 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	50.7%	39.0%	-11.7 pp
KasimpasaWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
KasimpasaFinish top 2	0.7%	0.4%	-0.4 pp
KasimpasaFinish bottom 3	2.8%	4.5%	+1.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,661 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Up to 20.9 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	56.3%	46.2%	-10.0 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	53.3%	61.4%	+8.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,132 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 1, 4:15 PM UTC

Paris FC vs AS Monaco

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Paris FCWin league	0.3%	0.5%	+0.2 pp
Paris FCFinish top 3	6.3%	10.4%	+4.0 pp
Paris FCFinish bottom 2	1.1%	0.3%	-0.8 pp
AS MonacoWin league	5.3%	3.3%	-2.0 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	48.1%	37.1%	-11.0 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,419 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 7, 1:00 PM UTC

Málaga vs Racing Santander

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Racing Santander: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	68.2%	59.1%	-9.1 pp
Racing SantanderWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Racing SantanderFinish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Racing SantanderFinish bottom 3	30.4%	39.4%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,424 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 2, 7:45 PM UTC

Atalanta vs Parma

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Parma: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AtalantaWin league	1.2%	1.6%	+0.4 pp
AtalantaFinish top 4	20.0%	23.3%	+3.3 pp
AtalantaFinish bottom 3	0.3%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	64.2%	69.0%	+4.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,372 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 7, 3:30 PM UTC

C.D. Nacional vs Académico de Viseu

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · C.D. Nacional: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
C.D. NacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish bottom 2	39.9%	27.7%	-12.2 pp
Académico de ViseuWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Académico de ViseuFinish top 2	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Académico de ViseuFinish bottom 2	0.7%	1.4%	+0.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,407 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 26, 7:30 PM UTC

Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Lyon: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	84.5%	88.4%	+4.0 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	97.8%	98.9%	+1.0 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LyonWin league	3.6%	1.8%	-1.8 pp
LyonFinish top 3	36.7%	32.0%	-4.7 pp
LyonFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,844 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 2, 11:00 PM UTC

Red Bull Bragantino vs Santos

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Santos: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	1.8%	3.6%	+1.8 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2 pp
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	12.1%	5.3%	-6.8 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,658 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 6, 8:00 PM UTC

Everton vs Coventry City

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EvertonWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EvertonFinish top 4	2.1%	2.8%	+0.6 pp
EvertonFinish bottom 3	9.0%	5.5%	-3.4 pp
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	56.3%	63.5%	+7.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,181 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC

Real Betis vs Málaga

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Real Betis: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Real BetisWin league	0.4%	0.5%	+0.1 pp
Real BetisFinish top 4	47.9%	53.4%	+5.5 pp
Real BetisFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	68.2%	72.2%	+4.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,505 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 1, 5:30 PM UTC

Elche vs Valencia

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Valencia: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ElcheWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ElcheFinish top 4	0.7%	1.2%	+0.5 pp
ElcheFinish bottom 3	19.8%	12.1%	-7.6 pp
ValenciaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ValenciaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
ValenciaFinish bottom 3	31.9%	40.8%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,106 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · Bayern Munich: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bayern MunichWin league	82.3%	87.4%	+5.1 pp
Bayern MunichFinish top 4	99.6%	99.9%	+0.3 pp
Bayern MunichFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia DortmundWin league	8.8%	5.0%	-3.7 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish top 4	84.5%	82.5%	-2.0 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,506 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 29, 5:30 PM UTC

Frosinone vs Lecce

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FrosinoneWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
FrosinoneFinish top 4	3.2%	4.5%	+1.3 pp
FrosinoneFinish bottom 3	4.9%	2.6%	-2.2 pp
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	42.3%	48.8%	+6.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,221 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 2, 5:00 PM UTC

Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor

Up to 19.7 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	38.1%	27.5%	-10.6 pp
AlanyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
AlanyasporFinish top 2	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
AlanyasporFinish bottom 3	8.2%	12.4%	+4.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,491 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 7, 6:00 PM UTC

Alverca vs Casa Pia

Up to 19.7 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AlvercaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AlvercaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AlvercaFinish bottom 2	4.3%	2.0%	-2.3 pp
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	36.3%	43.6%	+7.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,951 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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