The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 25, 12:00 AM UTC

Santos vs Bahia

Up to 36.5 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.2%	26.9%	+9.7 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	44.8%	31.8%	-13.1 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,926 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 11:00 PM UTC

Corinthians vs Mirassol

Up to 34.8 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	39.4%	23.9%	-15.5 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	11.5%	17.9%	+6.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,488 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 12:30 AM UTC

Internacional vs Coritiba

Up to 34.6 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	49.7%	36.9%	-12.8 pp
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	7.8%	11.9%	+4.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,701 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 10:30 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro

Up to 34.4 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	62.5%	78.3%	+15.8 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	88.8%	81.8%	-6.9 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,400 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 7:30 PM UTC

Internacional vs Botafogo

Up to 34.2 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	49.7%	32.8%	-16.9 pp
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.8%	0.2%	-0.6 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	1.5%	3.1%	+1.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,232 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians

Up to 33.3 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	11.2%	3.7%	-7.4 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	39.4%	51.1%	+11.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,731 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 25, 1:30 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord Rotterdam

Up to 32.1 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	55.3%	67.1%	+11.8 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	84.1%	90.0%	+5.9 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	33.4%	22.6%	-10.9 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	70.2%	63.2%	-7.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,510 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 10:30 PM UTC

Coritiba vs Grêmio

Up to 31.7 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	7.8%	1.1%	-6.7 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	70.3%	83.8%	+13.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,889 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 12:30 AM UTC

Bahia vs São Paulo

Up to 31.3 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	44.8%	59.1%	+14.2 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.7%	0.8%	-2.9 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,443 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Internacional

Up to 30.9 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	86.2%	93.7%	+7.5 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	49.7%	58.7%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,275 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 26, 6:30 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce

Up to 29.6 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	54.1%	66.2%	+12.0 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	77.8%	86.2%	+8.4 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	23.9%	14.5%	-9.5 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	52.4%	43.3%	-9.2 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,962 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

Botafogo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 29.0 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.8%	1.5%	+0.8 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	1.5%	0.2%	-1.4 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	62.5%	51.3%	-11.2 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,451 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 4, 10:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Grêmio

Up to 28.9 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	58.8%	65.3%	+6.5 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	70.3%	75.7%	+5.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,887 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 5, 12:30 AM UTC

São Paulo vs Corinthians

Up to 28.8 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	3.7%	6.5%	+2.8 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	39.4%	49.3%	+9.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,522 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 30, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Athletico-PR

Up to 28.1 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	70.3%	56.5%	-13.8 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	93.3%	89.1%	-4.2 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,298 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 26, 11:00 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG

Up to 27.5 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	58.8%	67.3%	+8.5 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	62.5%	57.0%	-5.5 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,296 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC

Santos vs Palmeiras

Up to 26.5 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.2%	31.0%	+13.8 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	41.2%	27.1%	-14.2 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,809 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 24, 9:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino

Up to 25.8 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	41.2%	48.4%	+7.2 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.5%	1.3%	-1.2 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,800 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Oct 25, 8:00 PM UTC

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Up to 25.2 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BarcelonaWin league	75.4%	84.1%	+8.8 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.9%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Real MadridWin league	17.9%	10.2%	-7.7 pp
Real MadridFinish top 4	98.0%	97.4%	-0.6 pp
Real MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,403 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Oct 24, 2:30 PM UTC

Estrela vs Casa Pia

Up to 25.1 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstrelaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstrelaFinish bottom 2	12.1%	6.3%	-5.8 pp
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	51.2%	60.7%	+9.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,552 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Oct 29, 11:00 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo

Up to 24.2 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.5%	+0.4 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	11.2%	3.8%	-7.4 pp
FlamengoWin league	58.8%	45.4%	-13.4 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,664 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Mans

Up to 23.5 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	47.9%	36.7%	-11.2 pp
Le MansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le MansFinish top 3	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Le MansFinish bottom 2	27.5%	36.7%	+9.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,163 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 2, 11:00 PM UTC

Red Bull Bragantino vs Santos

Up to 23.2 percentage points between scenarios · Santos: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	2.5%	4.6%	+2.1 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	17.2%	9.4%	-7.8 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,586 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 31, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 23.1 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	39.1%	31.1%	-8.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	40.5%	48.5%	+8.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,417 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 31, 5:45 PM UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Up to 22.9 percentage points between scenarios · Willem II: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PSV EindhovenWin league	55.3%	56.9%	+1.6 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	84.1%	85.2%	+1.1 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish bottom 2	80.0%	81.4%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 8,906 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 25, 1:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Genclerbirligi

Up to 22.4 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	37.3%	28.5%	-8.9 pp
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	39.7%	48.2%	+8.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,722 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 22.3 percentage points between scenarios · Liverpool: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	4.8%	6.4%	+1.7 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	57.6%	66.2%	+8.6 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	3.6%	2.4%	-1.2 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	47.9%	40.5%	-7.5 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,155 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

FC Cologne vs Schalke 04

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FC CologneWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FC CologneFinish top 4	1.4%	1.9%	+0.5 pp
FC CologneFinish bottom 2	14.7%	9.6%	-5.1 pp
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	41.5%	48.8%	+7.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,049 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 28, 5:30 PM UTC

Parma vs Udinese

Up to 22.0 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	61.6%	50.5%	-11.1 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	44.3%	55.1%	+10.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,707 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburg SV

Up to 21.9 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	40.5%	29.4%	-11.1 pp
Hamburg SVWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hamburg SVFinish top 4	2.5%	1.2%	-1.3 pp
Hamburg SVFinish bottom 2	9.4%	14.3%	+4.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,954 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Up to 21.9 percentage points between scenarios · Brighton & Hove Albion: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Manchester CityWin league	40.8%	47.4%	+6.6 pp
Manchester CityFinish top 4	93.9%	96.2%	+2.3 pp
Manchester CityFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionWin league	3.6%	1.8%	-1.7 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish top 4	47.9%	41.4%	-6.6 pp
Brighton & Hove AlbionFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,615 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Lille

Up to 21.8 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	4.9%	6.8%	+2.0 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	45.6%	55.5%	+9.9 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LilleWin league	1.9%	0.9%	-1.0 pp
LilleFinish top 3	29.4%	22.4%	-7.0 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,578 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Nov 1, 3:30 PM UTC

Arouca vs C.D. Nacional

Up to 21.8 percentage points between scenarios · C.D. Nacional: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AroucaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AroucaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AroucaFinish bottom 2	1.0%	0.4%	-0.6 pp
C.D. NacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
C.D. NacionalFinish bottom 2	41.8%	49.7%	+7.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,937 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Sunderland

Up to 21.7 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	49.2%	38.6%	-10.6 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	53.4%	63.1%	+9.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,155 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 2, 5:00 PM UTC

Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · Genclerbirligi: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	39.7%	28.2%	-11.5 pp
AlanyasporWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
AlanyasporFinish top 2	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
AlanyasporFinish bottom 3	5.7%	8.7%	+3.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,409 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 1, 11:15 AM UTC

PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · PEC Zwolle: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PEC ZwolleWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PEC ZwolleFinish bottom 2	29.0%	19.3%	-9.7 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	26.9%	35.2%	+8.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,301 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 24, 2:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Fulham

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	49.2%	37.8%	-11.5 pp
FulhamWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FulhamFinish top 4	0.8%	0.3%	-0.5 pp
FulhamFinish bottom 3	20.9%	29.0%	+8.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,401 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Oct 31, 3:30 PM UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Feyenoord Rotterdam: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	33.4%	36.9%	+3.4 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	70.2%	74.3%	+4.0 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Fortuna SittardWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Fortuna SittardFinish top 2	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
Fortuna SittardFinish bottom 2	1.5%	1.8%	+0.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,377 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Oct 31, 3:00 PM UTC

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

Up to 20.9 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Hull CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Hull CityFinish bottom 3	74.8%	63.6%	-11.3 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	38.7%	50.2%	+11.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,368 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Oct 24, 1:30 PM UTC

RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

Up to 20.8 percentage points between scenarios · RB Leipzig: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
RB LeipzigWin league	0.9%	1.2%	+0.3 pp
RB LeipzigFinish top 4	40.7%	46.8%	+6.1 pp
RB LeipzigFinish bottom 2	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
SV ElversbergWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SV ElversbergFinish top 4	3.7%	2.3%	-1.4 pp
SV ElversbergFinish bottom 2	6.3%	7.7%	+1.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,303 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 25, 4:15 PM UTC

Toulouse vs Troyes

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ToulouseWin league	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
ToulouseFinish top 3	5.6%	7.3%	+1.7 pp
ToulouseFinish bottom 2	1.4%	0.8%	-0.6 pp
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	47.9%	53.9%	+6.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,967 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 2, 7:45 PM UTC

Atalanta vs Parma

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Parma: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AtalantaWin league	1.3%	1.7%	+0.4 pp
AtalantaFinish top 4	21.0%	24.4%	+3.5 pp
AtalantaFinish bottom 3	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	61.6%	66.2%	+4.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,470 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Oct 30, 6:00 PM UTC

Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	56.5%	40.0%	-16.6 pp
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	84.9%	75.2%	-9.7 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	98.2%	95.9%	-2.3 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,129 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 31, 4:00 PM UTC

Fenerbahce vs Goztepe

Up to 20.5 percentage points between scenarios · Fenerbahce: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FenerbahceWin league	23.9%	28.1%	+4.2 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	52.4%	58.1%	+5.7 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GoztepeWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
GoztepeFinish top 2	0.6%	0.3%	-0.3 pp
GoztepeFinish bottom 3	7.0%	8.8%	+1.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,532 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Oct 24, 1:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Erzurum BB

Up to 20.4 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	38.5%	30.0%	-8.4 pp
Erzurum BBWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish bottom 3	28.6%	36.4%	+7.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,303 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 7:45 PM UTC

Juventus vs Napoli

Up to 20.4 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
JuventusWin league	5.5%	7.5%	+2.1 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	48.9%	57.9%	+9.0 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
NapoliWin league	1.8%	1.1%	-0.8 pp
NapoliFinish top 4	27.2%	20.3%	-6.9 pp
NapoliFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,606 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 25, 2:00 PM UTC

Genoa vs Venezia

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Genoa: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	31.2%	21.7%	-9.5 pp
VeneziaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VeneziaFinish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
VeneziaFinish bottom 3	32.9%	40.7%	+7.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,083 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 31, 7:45 PM UTC

AC Milan vs Internazionale

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Internazionale: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AC MilanWin league	6.5%	11.7%	+5.2 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	51.4%	62.4%	+10.9 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
InternazionaleWin league	61.9%	50.6%	-11.2 pp
InternazionaleFinish top 4	94.9%	91.1%	-3.7 pp
InternazionaleFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,163 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 1, 5:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Genoa

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	43.6%	32.4%	-11.2 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	31.2%	40.7%	+9.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,297 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Oct 25, 7:45 PM UTC

Udinese vs AC Milan

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	44.3%	31.2%	-13.1 pp
AC MilanWin league	6.5%	3.4%	-3.1 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	51.4%	40.2%	-11.2 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,340 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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