The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 12, 7:00 PM UTC

Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama

Up to 30.2 percentage points between scenarios · Vasco da Gama: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	1.1%	1.8%	+0.7 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	24.4%	13.3%	-11.1 pp
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	51.5%	61.5%	+10.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,986 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 20, 12:00 AM UTC

São Paulo vs Internacional

Up to 27.4 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	11.8%	17.2%	+5.4 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	2.4%	0.7%	-1.7 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	63.1%	72.0%	+8.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,942 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 20, 10:30 PM UTC

Athletico-PR vs Bahia

Up to 26.4 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Athletico-PRWin league	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	88.0%	94.7%	+6.6 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	58.9%	50.0%	-8.8 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,062 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 12, 8:00 PM UTC

Chapecoense vs Internacional

Up to 26.3 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ChapecoenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish bottom 4	99.6%	99.1%	-0.5 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	63.1%	75.9%	+12.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,383 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Sep 20, 7:30 PM UTC

FC Porto vs Benfica

Up to 26.3 percentage points between scenarios · FC Porto: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FC PortoWin league	24.4%	35.3%	+10.9 pp
FC PortoFinish top 2	54.5%	67.9%	+13.4 pp
FC PortoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BenficaWin league	32.6%	22.3%	-10.3 pp
BenficaFinish top 2	64.2%	52.8%	-11.4 pp
BenficaFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,863 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 19, 11:30 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba

Up to 25.9 percentage points between scenarios · Vasco da Gama: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	51.5%	40.8%	-10.7 pp
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	7.6%	5.0%	-2.6 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	3.0%	4.4%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,263 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 14, 11:00 PM UTC

Bahia vs Remo

Up to 25.8 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	58.9%	67.5%	+8.6 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish bottom 4	88.8%	92.5%	+3.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,821 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 12, 7:00 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Fluminense

Up to 25.2 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	37.4%	49.6%	+12.3 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2 pp
FluminenseWin league	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	86.4%	80.3%	-6.1 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,403 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 13, 7:00 PM UTC

Mirassol vs Vitória

Up to 25.0 percentage points between scenarios · Mirassol: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.6%	0.9%	+0.3 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	27.3%	18.0%	-9.3 pp
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	1.1%	0.6%	-0.5 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	15.6%	20.9%	+5.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,401 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 19, 7:00 PM UTC

Atlético-MG vs Chapecoense

Up to 24.6 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	37.4%	43.9%	+6.5 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2 pp
ChapecoenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ChapecoenseFinish bottom 4	99.6%	99.8%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,679 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 12, 9:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs São Paulo

Up to 23.0 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	42.4%	49.3%	+6.9 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
São PauloFinish top 6	11.8%	8.6%	-3.3 pp
São PauloFinish bottom 4	2.4%	3.3%	+0.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,257 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 20, 9:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Red Bull Bragantino

Up to 23.0 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	57.1%	63.1%	+6.0 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	14.5%	12.0%	-2.4 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	1.4%	1.7%	+0.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,779 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Sep 19, 2:30 PM UTC

ADO Den Haag vs SC Cambuur

Up to 22.9 percentage points between scenarios · ADO Den Haag: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	39.7%	31.4%	-8.2 pp
SC CambuurWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC CambuurFinish bottom 2	73.9%	80.6%	+6.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,561 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Sep 20, 5:00 PM UTC

Estoril vs Casa Pia

Up to 22.8 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EstorilWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EstorilFinish bottom 2	14.8%	9.7%	-5.2 pp
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	54.3%	61.3%	+7.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,312 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 20, 7:00 PM UTC

Vitória vs Cruzeiro

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Cruzeiro: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	1.1%	2.6%	+1.5 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	15.6%	6.6%	-9.0 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	72.2%	61.3%	-10.9 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,177 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 19, 8:00 PM UTC

Mirassol vs Botafogo

Up to 22.5 percentage points between scenarios · Mirassol: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.6%	1.0%	+0.4 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	27.3%	16.9%	-10.4 pp
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	14.0%	7.9%	-6.1 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	3.1%	4.9%	+1.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,335 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 13, 12:00 AM UTC

Santos vs Cruzeiro

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Cruzeiro: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	4.3%	7.4%	+3.1 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	8.7%	4.2%	-4.5 pp
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	72.2%	62.7%	-9.5 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,066 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Sep 18, 5:00 PM UTC

Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor

Up to 21.7 percentage points between scenarios · Konyaspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KasimpasaWin league	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
KasimpasaFinish top 2	0.6%	0.9%	+0.4 pp
KasimpasaFinish bottom 3	16.7%	10.7%	-6.0 pp
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	47.8%	56.3%	+8.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,424 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Sep 12, 1:30 PM UTC

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 21.4 percentage points between scenarios · SC Paderborn 07: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia DortmundWin league	10.2%	11.5%	+1.3 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish top 4	76.5%	80.1%	+3.6 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	41.4%	44.9%	+3.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,448 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Sep 13, 1:00 PM UTC

Lecce vs Monza

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	57.5%	45.5%	-12.0 pp
MonzaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
MonzaFinish top 4	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1 pp
MonzaFinish bottom 3	31.6%	40.6%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,259 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Sep 18, 7:00 PM UTC

Espanyol vs Elche

Up to 21.2 percentage points between scenarios · Elche: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EspanyolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EspanyolFinish top 4	1.7%	2.5%	+0.8 pp
EspanyolFinish bottom 3	25.1%	18.4%	-6.7 pp
ElcheWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ElcheFinish top 4	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1 pp
ElcheFinish bottom 3	47.4%	54.9%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,839 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Sep 19, 4:00 PM UTC

AS Roma vs Internazionale

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Internazionale: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS RomaWin league	14.9%	22.9%	+8.0 pp
AS RomaFinish top 4	67.4%	75.4%	+8.0 pp
AS RomaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternazionaleWin league	55.0%	44.2%	-10.8 pp
InternazionaleFinish top 4	92.4%	88.5%	-3.8 pp
InternazionaleFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,435 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Sep 20, 3:30 PM UTC

Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.2%	0.2%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	43.5%	33.1%	-10.3 pp
SV ElversbergWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
SV ElversbergFinish top 4	4.8%	3.1%	-1.7 pp
SV ElversbergFinish bottom 2	7.6%	11.8%	+4.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,801 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Sep 20, 1:00 PM UTC

Parma vs Genoa

Up to 21.1 percentage points between scenarios · Parma: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	51.0%	39.9%	-11.1 pp
GenoaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
GenoaFinish top 4	0.5%	0.2%	-0.3 pp
GenoaFinish bottom 3	30.6%	39.6%	+9.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,516 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Sep 12, 6:45 PM UTC

Le Havre AC vs Angers

Up to 20.9 percentage points between scenarios · Le Havre AC: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	40.0%	30.4%	-9.6 pp
AngersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AngersFinish top 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
AngersFinish bottom 2	36.5%	44.6%	+8.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,322 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Sep 20, 4:00 PM UTC

Juventus vs Atalanta

Up to 20.7 percentage points between scenarios · Juventus: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
JuventusWin league	12.0%	16.0%	+4.0 pp
JuventusFinish top 4	63.1%	71.7%	+8.6 pp
JuventusFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
AtalantaWin league	4.9%	2.7%	-2.2 pp
AtalantaFinish top 4	40.6%	33.2%	-7.5 pp
AtalantaFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,782 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Sep 12, 2:00 PM UTC

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Crystal PalaceWin league	0.2%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
Crystal PalaceFinish top 4	6.1%	7.8%	+1.8 pp
Crystal PalaceFinish bottom 3	7.2%	4.7%	-2.5 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	49.8%	56.1%	+6.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,641 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Sep 20, 1:30 PM UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · RB Leipzig: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bayer LeverkusenWin league	5.1%	6.7%	+1.6 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish top 4	62.9%	70.2%	+7.3 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
RB LeipzigWin league	1.7%	1.1%	-0.6 pp
RB LeipzigFinish top 4	40.6%	33.3%	-7.4 pp
RB LeipzigFinish bottom 2	0.4%	0.6%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,165 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 13, 8:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Corinthians

Up to 20.6 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	57.1%	62.8%	+5.7 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	2.0%	1.2%	-0.8 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	10.9%	13.5%	+2.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,347 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Sep 13, 12:00 PM UTC

Celta Vigo vs Málaga

Up to 20.4 percentage points between scenarios · Málaga: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Celta VigoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Celta VigoFinish top 4	4.0%	5.2%	+1.2 pp
Celta VigoFinish bottom 3	13.5%	9.4%	-4.1 pp
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.4%	0.2%	-0.3 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	46.7%	53.1%	+6.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,539 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Sep 20, 1:00 PM UTC

AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Liverpool: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AFC BournemouthWin league	0.4%	0.8%	+0.4 pp
AFC BournemouthFinish top 4	10.2%	15.2%	+5.0 pp
AFC BournemouthFinish bottom 3	4.6%	2.5%	-2.1 pp
LiverpoolWin league	7.8%	5.0%	-2.9 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	56.3%	45.5%	-10.8 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,312 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Sep 20, 2:00 PM UTC

Grêmio vs Palmeiras

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	1.1%	2.3%	+1.2 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	24.4%	13.3%	-11.2 pp
PalmeirasWin league	42.4%	31.6%	-10.8 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,800 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Sep 12, 1:30 PM UTC

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · VfB Stuttgart: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TSG HoffenheimWin league	0.1%	0.3%	+0.1 pp
TSG HoffenheimFinish top 4	6.6%	10.2%	+3.6 pp
TSG HoffenheimFinish bottom 2	6.6%	3.9%	-2.7 pp
VfB StuttgartWin league	2.1%	1.0%	-1.1 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish top 4	42.5%	32.9%	-9.6 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish bottom 2	0.4%	0.6%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,838 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Sep 11, 6:00 PM UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

Up to 20.2 percentage points between scenarios · Willem II: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AZ AlkmaarWin league	8.9%	10.3%	+1.4 pp
AZ AlkmaarFinish top 2	35.3%	38.9%	+3.7 pp
AZ AlkmaarFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Willem IIFinish bottom 2	52.9%	56.1%	+3.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,506 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Sep 19, 4:30 PM UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · VfB Stuttgart: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VfB StuttgartWin league	2.1%	3.3%	+1.3 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish top 4	42.5%	52.7%	+10.2 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish bottom 2	0.4%	0.1%	-0.3 pp
Borussia DortmundWin league	10.2%	6.8%	-3.4 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish top 4	76.5%	69.1%	-7.4 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,014 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Sep 20, 2:00 PM UTC

Fenerbahce vs Eyupspor

Up to 20.1 percentage points between scenarios · Fenerbahce: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FenerbahceWin league	23.7%	26.5%	+2.8 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	55.9%	60.1%	+4.2 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
EyupsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish bottom 3	42.0%	45.6%	+3.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,274 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Sep 12, 2:00 PM UTC

Preston North End vs Lincoln City

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Preston North EndWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Preston North EndFinish bottom 3	37.5%	29.0%	-8.4 pp
Preston North EndAutomatic promotion	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	41.0%	49.5%	+8.5 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,673 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Sep 14, 5:00 PM UTC

Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahce

Up to 19.7 percentage points between scenarios · Fenerbahce: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.4%	1.3%	+0.9 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	22.4%	13.4%	-9.0 pp
FenerbahceWin league	23.7%	14.5%	-9.2 pp
FenerbahceFinish top 2	55.9%	42.6%	-13.3 pp
FenerbahceFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,949 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Sep 12, 2:00 PM UTC

Eyupspor vs Caykur Rizespor

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Eyupspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
EyupsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish bottom 3	42.0%	32.0%	-10.0 pp
Caykur RizesporWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
Caykur RizesporFinish top 2	0.6%	0.3%	-0.3 pp
Caykur RizesporFinish bottom 3	16.4%	23.2%	+6.7 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,899 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Sep 19, 6:45 PM UTC

Angers vs Troyes

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Angers: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AngersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AngersFinish top 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
AngersFinish bottom 2	36.5%	26.9%	-9.7 pp
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.3%	0.2%	-0.1 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	27.2%	34.0%	+6.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,099 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Sep 20, 12:00 PM UTC

Getafe vs Málaga

Up to 19.4 percentage points between scenarios · Málaga: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GetafeWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GetafeFinish top 4	0.9%	1.5%	+0.6 pp
GetafeFinish bottom 3	29.8%	22.2%	-7.5 pp
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	46.7%	53.7%	+7.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,548 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Sep 12, 5:00 PM UTC

Casa Pia vs FC Porto

Up to 19.4 percentage points between scenarios · Casa Pia: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Casa PiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Casa PiaFinish bottom 2	54.3%	38.7%	-15.5 pp
FC PortoWin league	24.4%	17.3%	-7.1 pp
FC PortoFinish top 2	54.5%	43.9%	-10.7 pp
FC PortoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,103 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Sep 19, 4:30 PM UTC

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City

Up to 19.2 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Nottingham ForestWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Nottingham ForestFinish top 4	2.1%	2.9%	+0.9 pp
Nottingham ForestFinish bottom 3	16.6%	11.7%	-4.9 pp
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	53.1%	60.2%	+7.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,027 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Sep 18, 6:45 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs Lens

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	11.0%	14.8%	+3.8 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	50.4%	59.1%	+8.7 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
LensWin league	3.8%	1.9%	-1.9 pp
LensFinish top 3	24.2%	16.8%	-7.4 pp
LensFinish bottom 2	0.4%	0.6%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,412 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Primeira Liga · Sep 19, 5:00 PM UTC

Alverca vs Rio Ave

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Alverca: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AlvercaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AlvercaFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AlvercaFinish bottom 2	22.4%	14.5%	-7.9 pp
Rio AveWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Rio AveFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Rio AveFinish bottom 2	27.2%	35.0%	+7.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,426 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Sep 12, 6:45 PM UTC

Atalanta vs Cagliari

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Atalanta: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AtalantaWin league	4.9%	6.0%	+1.1 pp
AtalantaFinish top 4	40.6%	46.3%	+5.6 pp
AtalantaFinish bottom 3	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
CagliariWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CagliariFinish top 4	0.7%	0.4%	-0.3 pp
CagliariFinish bottom 3	22.1%	25.2%	+3.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,296 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Sep 20, 6:45 PM UTC

AC Milan vs Lecce

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AC MilanWin league	5.9%	7.0%	+1.1 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	42.3%	47.6%	+5.3 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	57.5%	61.4%	+3.9 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,683 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Sep 20, 6:45 PM UTC

Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain

Up to 19.0 percentage points between scenarios · Paris Saint-Germain: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MarseilleWin league	2.9%	6.2%	+3.3 pp
MarseilleFinish top 3	20.7%	30.3%	+9.6 pp
MarseilleFinish bottom 2	0.5%	0.2%	-0.3 pp
Paris Saint-GermainWin league	65.4%	53.9%	-11.4 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish top 3	92.0%	87.3%	-4.7 pp
Paris Saint-GermainFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,537 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Sep 12, 4:00 PM UTC

Lazio vs AC Milan

Up to 18.9 percentage points between scenarios · AC Milan: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LazioWin league	1.3%	2.1%	+0.8 pp
LazioFinish top 4	17.5%	25.0%	+7.5 pp
LazioFinish bottom 3	0.9%	0.3%	-0.6 pp
AC MilanWin league	5.9%	3.6%	-2.4 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	42.3%	33.0%	-9.3 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,453 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Sep 11, 5:00 PM UTC

Besiktas vs Erzurum BB

Up to 18.9 percentage points between scenarios · Erzurum BB: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BesiktasWin league	9.5%	11.2%	+1.7 pp
BesiktasFinish top 2	29.2%	33.0%	+3.8 pp
BesiktasFinish bottom 3	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
Erzurum BBWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish bottom 3	60.3%	64.4%	+4.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,892 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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