The next fortnight

Matches that matter

Explore what a win, draw or loss could mean for the rest of the season.

Find a club or leagueOrder by

Impact is the largest difference between the win/draw/loss scenarios for either club’s listed season outcomes. A large swing means more is at stake in this model.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 23, 10:30 PM UTC

Internacional vs Vitória

Up to 53.5 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	35.5%	15.5%	-19.9 pp
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	45.0%	60.4%	+15.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,442 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 19, 10:30 PM UTC

Vitória vs Red Bull Bragantino

Up to 45.1 percentage points between scenarios · Vitória: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
VitóriaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VitóriaFinish bottom 4	45.0%	21.4%	-23.6 pp
Red Bull BragantinoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish top 6	5.1%	0.7%	-4.4 pp
Red Bull BragantinoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,955 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 19, 12:30 AM UTC

Grêmio vs Bahia

Up to 42.2 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	49.7%	30.4%	-19.4 pp
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	70.3%	59.5%	-10.8 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,793 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 19, 12:30 AM UTC

Corinthians vs Botafogo

Up to 40.8 percentage points between scenarios · Corinthians: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CorinthiansWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CorinthiansFinish bottom 4	44.3%	24.4%	-20.0 pp
BotafogoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BotafogoFinish bottom 4	1.5%	2.9%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,447 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 24, 12:00 AM UTC

Santos vs Grêmio

Up to 39.3 percentage points between scenarios · Grêmio: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SantosWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SantosFinish top 6	5.4%	9.7%	+4.3 pp
SantosFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GrêmioFinish bottom 4	49.7%	62.5%	+12.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,875 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 14, 9:30 PM UTC

Mirassol vs Atlético-MG

Up to 34.6 percentage points between scenarios · Atlético-MG: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	15.1%	3.2%	-11.9 pp
Atlético-MGWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Atlético-MGFinish top 6	32.5%	19.4%	-13.1 pp
Atlético-MGFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,346 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 19, 10:30 PM UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Internacional

Up to 34.5 percentage points between scenarios · Internacional: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Vasco da GamaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish top 6	0.2%	0.4%	+0.2 pp
Vasco da GamaFinish bottom 4	1.7%	0.0%	-1.7 pp
InternacionalWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
InternacionalFinish bottom 4	35.5%	46.9%	+11.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,930 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 21, 8:30 PM UTC

Bahia vs Coritiba

Up to 34.2 percentage points between scenarios · Bahia: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BahiaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
BahiaFinish top 6	70.3%	80.7%	+10.4 pp
BahiaFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
CoritibaFinish bottom 4	7.2%	10.3%	+3.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,971 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 21, 7:30 PM UTC

Palmeiras vs Flamengo

Up to 30.8 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
PalmeirasWin league	16.5%	31.2%	+14.6 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoWin league	83.5%	68.8%	-14.6 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,819 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 18, 11:30 PM UTC

Flamengo vs Athletico-PR

Up to 30.0 percentage points between scenarios · Flamengo: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FlamengoWin league	83.5%	90.8%	+7.3 pp
FlamengoFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
FlamengoFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	86.9%	83.7%	-3.2 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,885 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 22, 7:00 PM UTC

Athletico-PR vs Remo

Up to 27.9 percentage points between scenarios · Athletico-PR: finish top 6.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Athletico-PRWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Athletico-PRFinish top 6	86.9%	95.8%	+8.9 pp
Athletico-PRFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
RemoFinish bottom 4	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,139 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 21, 7:45 PM UTC

Lille vs Lyon

Up to 22.7 percentage points between scenarios · Lille: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LilleWin league	2.0%	2.7%	+0.7 pp
LilleFinish top 3	48.2%	58.5%	+10.3 pp
LilleFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LyonWin league	0.7%	0.3%	-0.4 pp
LyonFinish top 3	28.4%	20.2%	-8.2 pp
LyonFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,375 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 22, 2:00 PM UTC

Paris FC vs Angers

Up to 22.2 percentage points between scenarios · Angers: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Paris FCWin league	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
Paris FCFinish top 3	15.1%	18.5%	+3.4 pp
Paris FCFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
AngersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AngersFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
AngersFinish bottom 2	51.2%	57.6%	+6.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,828 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 21, 10:30 AM UTC

Genclerbirligi vs Gaziantep FK

Up to 22.1 percentage points between scenarios · Gaziantep FK: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GenclerbirligiWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GenclerbirligiFinish bottom 3	26.7%	17.2%	-9.5 pp
Gaziantep FKWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Gaziantep FKFinish bottom 3	61.3%	70.2%	+8.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,425 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

Coventry City vs Crystal Palace

Up to 22.0 percentage points between scenarios · Coventry City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Coventry CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish top 4	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Coventry CityFinish bottom 3	50.9%	38.7%	-12.2 pp
Crystal PalaceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Crystal PalaceFinish top 4	0.4%	0.1%	-0.2 pp
Crystal PalaceFinish bottom 3	23.5%	32.7%	+9.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,440 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

Lincoln City vs Wrexham

Up to 21.3 percentage points between scenarios · Lincoln City: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Lincoln CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Lincoln CityFinish bottom 3	47.8%	35.4%	-12.4 pp
Lincoln CityAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
WrexhamWin league	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
WrexhamFinish bottom 3	2.8%	5.1%	+2.3 pp
WrexhamAutomatic promotion	0.8%	0.3%	-0.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,021 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 23, 8:00 PM UTC

Levante vs Elche

Up to 21.0 percentage points between scenarios · Elche: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LevanteWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LevanteFinish top 4	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
LevanteFinish bottom 3	18.0%	11.6%	-6.4 pp
ElcheWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ElcheFinish top 4	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
ElcheFinish bottom 3	30.3%	38.2%	+8.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,779 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Nov 21, 2:30 PM UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07

Up to 20.9 percentage points between scenarios · Bayer Leverkusen: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bayer LeverkusenWin league	2.2%	2.6%	+0.5 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish top 4	64.5%	69.0%	+4.5 pp
Bayer LeverkusenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
SC Paderborn 07Finish bottom 2	27.0%	29.6%	+2.6 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,189 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

Tottenham Hotspur vs Ipswich Town

Up to 20.9 percentage points between scenarios · Ipswich Town: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Tottenham HotspurWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
Tottenham HotspurFinish top 4	4.0%	5.2%	+1.3 pp
Tottenham HotspurFinish bottom 3	4.1%	2.3%	-1.7 pp
Ipswich TownWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Ipswich TownFinish bottom 3	45.8%	52.0%	+6.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,975 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 22, 9:30 PM UTC

Fluminense vs Mirassol

Up to 20.3 percentage points between scenarios · Mirassol: finish bottom 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
FluminenseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FluminenseFinish top 6	99.3%	100.0%	+0.7 pp
FluminenseFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish top 6	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MirassolFinish bottom 4	15.1%	22.0%	+7.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,166 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 21, 5:45 PM UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Excelsior

Up to 20.0 percentage points between scenarios · Feyenoord Rotterdam: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Feyenoord RotterdamWin league	15.5%	17.8%	+2.3 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish top 2	43.8%	48.0%	+4.2 pp
Feyenoord RotterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ExcelsiorWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ExcelsiorFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ExcelsiorFinish bottom 2	19.4%	21.9%	+2.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,517 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 21, 2:00 PM UTC

Lazio vs Lecce

Up to 19.9 percentage points between scenarios · Lecce: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LazioWin league	4.7%	5.9%	+1.2 pp
LazioFinish top 4	48.7%	54.7%	+5.9 pp
LazioFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
LecceFinish bottom 3	56.5%	61.8%	+5.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,115 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth

Up to 19.7 percentage points between scenarios · Bolton Wanderers: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Bolton WanderersWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Bolton WanderersFinish bottom 3	40.0%	29.4%	-10.6 pp
Bolton WanderersAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PortsmouthWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
PortsmouthFinish bottom 3	4.1%	6.1%	+1.9 pp
PortsmouthAutomatic promotion	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,619 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 21, 3:30 PM UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven

Up to 19.7 percentage points between scenarios · PSV Eindhoven: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
NEC NijmegenWin league	0.0%	0.1%	+0.0 pp
NEC NijmegenFinish top 2	0.1%	0.4%	+0.3 pp
NEC NijmegenFinish bottom 2	0.6%	0.1%	-0.6 pp
PSV EindhovenWin league	63.7%	50.8%	-12.9 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish top 2	85.5%	77.4%	-8.1 pp
PSV EindhovenFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,179 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 22, 4:00 PM UTC

Trabzonspor vs Eyupspor

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Trabzonspor: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TrabzonsporWin league	14.1%	16.0%	+1.8 pp
TrabzonsporFinish top 2	41.1%	45.0%	+3.9 pp
TrabzonsporFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
EyupsporFinish bottom 3	93.8%	95.1%	+1.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,487 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Sunderland: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Aston VillaWin league	0.3%	0.4%	+0.1 pp
Aston VillaFinish top 4	12.3%	15.5%	+3.2 pp
Aston VillaFinish bottom 3	1.0%	0.4%	-0.6 pp
SunderlandWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
SunderlandFinish bottom 3	51.2%	56.2%	+5.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,874 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 21, 5:30 PM UTC

Sevilla vs Real Betis

Up to 19.5 percentage points between scenarios · Real Betis: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SevillaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SevillaFinish top 4	3.2%	5.9%	+2.7 pp
SevillaFinish bottom 3	2.8%	1.1%	-1.6 pp
Real BetisWin league	0.1%	0.1%	-0.0 pp
Real BetisFinish top 4	56.8%	47.0%	-9.8 pp
Real BetisFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,577 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 23, 7:45 PM UTC

Monza vs Fiorentina

Up to 19.4 percentage points between scenarios · Monza: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MonzaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MonzaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MonzaFinish bottom 3	44.1%	33.0%	-11.1 pp
FiorentinaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
FiorentinaFinish top 4	0.8%	0.3%	-0.5 pp
FiorentinaFinish bottom 3	5.1%	8.5%	+3.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,235 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Nov 21, 5:30 PM UTC

Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Schalke 04: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Schalke 04Win league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Schalke 04Finish bottom 2	51.6%	39.3%	-12.3 pp
VfB StuttgartWin league	0.3%	0.0%	-0.3 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish top 4	27.1%	17.8%	-9.3 pp
VfB StuttgartFinish bottom 2	0.1%	0.4%	+0.2 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,448 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 20, 7:45 PM UTC

Troyes vs Le Havre AC

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Troyes: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
TroyesWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
TroyesFinish top 3	0.0%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
TroyesFinish bottom 2	26.0%	17.7%	-8.3 pp
Le Havre ACWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish top 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Le Havre ACFinish bottom 2	71.6%	79.0%	+7.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 4,613 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Nov 21, 2:30 PM UTC

1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · RB Leipzig: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
1. FC Union BerlinWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
1. FC Union BerlinFinish top 4	0.1%	0.3%	+0.2 pp
1. FC Union BerlinFinish bottom 2	32.6%	21.3%	-11.3 pp
RB LeipzigWin league	1.9%	0.8%	-1.1 pp
RB LeipzigFinish top 4	61.1%	49.6%	-11.5 pp
RB LeipzigFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,597 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 21, 5:00 PM UTC

Parma vs AS Roma

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Parma: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ParmaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ParmaFinish bottom 3	47.8%	33.9%	-13.9 pp
AS RomaWin league	17.9%	9.9%	-7.9 pp
AS RomaFinish top 4	80.3%	72.3%	-8.1 pp
AS RomaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 1,871 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 22, 2:00 PM UTC

Bologna vs Udinese

Up to 19.1 percentage points between scenarios · Udinese: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BolognaWin league	0.1%	0.1%	+0.1 pp
BolognaFinish top 4	5.1%	7.3%	+2.2 pp
BolognaFinish bottom 3	0.5%	0.2%	-0.3 pp
UdineseWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
UdineseFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
UdineseFinish bottom 3	58.5%	64.3%	+5.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,285 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 22, 8:00 PM UTC

Getafe vs Atlético Madrid

Up to 19.0 percentage points between scenarios · Getafe: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GetafeWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
GetafeFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.2 pp
GetafeFinish bottom 3	33.1%	20.0%	-13.2 pp
Atlético MadridWin league	3.7%	1.6%	-2.1 pp
Atlético MadridFinish top 4	93.7%	89.9%	-3.8 pp
Atlético MadridFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,123 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Eredivisie · Nov 22, 1:30 PM UTC

Ajax Amsterdam vs ADO Den Haag

Up to 19.0 percentage points between scenarios · Ajax Amsterdam: finish top 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Ajax AmsterdamWin league	12.1%	13.8%	+1.7 pp
Ajax AmsterdamFinish top 2	36.6%	40.4%	+3.8 pp
Ajax AmsterdamFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
ADO Den HaagFinish bottom 2	30.3%	33.6%	+3.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,430 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Brasileirão Série A · Nov 18, 11:30 PM UTC

Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras

Up to 18.9 percentage points between scenarios · Palmeiras: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
CruzeiroWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
CruzeiroFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasWin league	16.5%	7.6%	-8.9 pp
PalmeirasFinish top 6	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
PalmeirasFinish bottom 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 3,257 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

West Ham United vs Preston North End

Up to 18.6 percentage points between scenarios · Preston North End: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
West Ham UnitedWin league	28.2%	31.2%	+3.0 pp
West Ham UnitedFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
West Ham UnitedAutomatic promotion	48.6%	52.6%	+4.0 pp
Preston North EndWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Preston North EndFinish bottom 3	72.3%	75.8%	+3.5 pp
Preston North EndAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,280 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Bundesliga · Nov 21, 2:30 PM UTC

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund

Up to 18.6 percentage points between scenarios · Borussia Mönchengladbach: finish bottom 2.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Borussia MönchengladbachWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish top 4	0.1%	0.2%	+0.1 pp
Borussia MönchengladbachFinish bottom 2	36.3%	23.7%	-12.6 pp
Borussia DortmundWin league	7.4%	5.0%	-2.4 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish top 4	86.1%	79.2%	-6.9 pp
Borussia DortmundFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,522 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Premier League · Nov 22, 4:30 PM UTC

Liverpool vs Manchester United

Up to 18.4 percentage points between scenarios · Liverpool: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
LiverpoolWin league	5.8%	7.4%	+1.6 pp
LiverpoolFinish top 4	65.5%	72.2%	+6.7 pp
LiverpoolFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Manchester UnitedWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Manchester UnitedFinish top 4	2.1%	1.3%	-0.9 pp
Manchester UnitedFinish bottom 3	8.3%	10.5%	+2.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,633 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 22, 5:00 PM UTC

AC Milan vs Frosinone

Up to 18.3 percentage points between scenarios · AC Milan: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AC MilanWin league	4.5%	5.7%	+1.3 pp
AC MilanFinish top 4	49.9%	56.4%	+6.5 pp
AC MilanFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FrosinoneWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
FrosinoneFinish top 4	2.5%	1.4%	-1.2 pp
FrosinoneFinish bottom 3	1.2%	1.7%	+0.5 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,755 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 21, 1:00 PM UTC

Galatasaray vs Samsunspor

Up to 18.3 percentage points between scenarios · Galatasaray: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
GalatasarayWin league	68.0%	72.2%	+4.2 pp
GalatasarayFinish top 2	87.7%	90.3%	+2.6 pp
GalatasarayFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SamsunsporFinish bottom 3	29.5%	32.4%	+3.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,254 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 22, 5:30 PM UTC

Osasuna vs Málaga

Up to 18.2 percentage points between scenarios · Málaga: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
OsasunaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
OsasunaFinish top 4	0.3%	0.5%	+0.2 pp
OsasunaFinish bottom 3	18.2%	12.0%	-6.2 pp
MálagaWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish top 4	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MálagaFinish bottom 3	77.1%	82.9%	+5.8 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,354 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 22, 10:30 AM UTC

Erzurum BB vs Goztepe

Up to 18.1 percentage points between scenarios · Erzurum BB: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Erzurum BBWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Erzurum BBFinish bottom 3	23.2%	12.5%	-10.7 pp
GoztepeWin league	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
GoztepeFinish top 2	0.5%	0.2%	-0.3 pp
GoztepeFinish bottom 3	1.7%	3.2%	+1.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,977 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic

Up to 18.1 percentage points between scenarios · Charlton Athletic: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
Wolverhampton WanderersWin league	20.2%	23.7%	+3.4 pp
Wolverhampton WanderersFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Wolverhampton WanderersAutomatic promotion	38.3%	43.2%	+4.9 pp
Charlton AthleticWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Charlton AthleticFinish bottom 3	31.8%	36.2%	+4.4 pp
Charlton AthleticAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,344 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Serie A · Nov 21, 2:00 PM UTC

Como vs Cagliari

Up to 17.9 percentage points between scenarios · Como: finish top 4.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
ComoWin league	5.2%	6.5%	+1.3 pp
ComoFinish top 4	56.5%	61.4%	+4.9 pp
ComoFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CagliariWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
CagliariFinish top 4	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1 pp
CagliariFinish bottom 3	11.0%	13.0%	+2.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,545 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

La Liga · Nov 22, 1:00 PM UTC

Barcelona vs Villarreal

Up to 17.9 percentage points between scenarios · Barcelona: win league.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
BarcelonaWin league	67.0%	70.9%	+3.9 pp
BarcelonaFinish top 4	99.9%	100.0%	+0.1 pp
BarcelonaFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VillarrealWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
VillarrealFinish top 4	9.0%	7.8%	-1.3 pp
VillarrealFinish bottom 3	1.2%	1.4%	+0.3 pp

Conditional forecast from 7,389 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Süper Lig · Nov 22, 1:00 PM UTC

Konyaspor vs Besiktas

Up to 17.7 percentage points between scenarios · Konyaspor: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
KonyasporWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish top 2	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
KonyasporFinish bottom 3	33.1%	22.0%	-11.1 pp
BesiktasWin league	5.2%	3.3%	-1.9 pp
BesiktasFinish top 2	18.9%	12.9%	-5.9 pp
BesiktasFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 2,587 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

Ligue 1 · Nov 21, 7:45 PM UTC

AS Monaco vs AJ Auxerre

Up to 17.6 percentage points between scenarios · AS Monaco: finish top 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
AS MonacoWin league	0.9%	1.4%	+0.5 pp
AS MonacoFinish top 3	30.5%	36.0%	+5.4 pp
AS MonacoFinish bottom 2	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
AJ AuxerreWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
AJ AuxerreFinish top 3	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp
AJ AuxerreFinish bottom 2	18.0%	21.4%	+3.4 pp

Conditional forecast from 6,129 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 21, 12:30 PM UTC

Southampton vs Derby County

Up to 17.4 percentage points between scenarios · Derby County: finish bottom 3.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
SouthamptonWin league	17.8%	20.8%	+3.1 pp
SouthamptonFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
SouthamptonAutomatic promotion	34.6%	39.5%	+4.9 pp
Derby CountyWin league	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
Derby CountyFinish bottom 3	40.7%	45.9%	+5.2 pp
Derby CountyAutomatic promotion	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,996 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

EFL Championship · Nov 21, 3:00 PM UTC

Middlesbrough vs Bristol City

Up to 17.3 percentage points between scenarios · Middlesbrough: automatic promotion.

What if this match ends with…

Club / outcome	Current forecast	If selected result	Change
MiddlesbroughWin league	15.9%	19.6%	+3.7 pp
MiddlesbroughFinish bottom 3	0.0%	0.0%	+0.0 pp
MiddlesbroughAutomatic promotion	31.9%	37.9%	+6.0 pp
Bristol CityWin league	0.0%	0.0%	-0.0 pp
Bristol CityFinish bottom 3	9.0%	10.9%	+2.0 pp
Bristol CityAutomatic promotion	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1 pp

Conditional forecast from 5,559 matching simulations. No assumed scoreline or post-match rating refit. Small differences can be simulation noise.

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