Pollster record · how records are scored
Lake Research Partners
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2002 to 2024 · 98% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.20
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.79; 14% own record)
Average miss
8.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
42
39 races · 10 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 4 | 12.1 | +2.6 | D+12.3 |
| 2004 | 4 | 4.9 | +0.3 | R+0.8 |
| 2006 | 5 | 5.0 | −0.2 | R+4.0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 10.7 | +5.2 | D+3.1 |
| 2010 | 2 | 8.9 | +1.1 | D+12.9 |
| 2012 | 8 | 3.3 | −3.3 | D+1.2 |
| 2013 | 1 | 15.2 | +0.8 | R+2.2 |
| 2014 | 3 | 6.1 | +2.7 | R+0.8 |
| 2016 | 2 | 9.7 | +0.9 | R+0.8 |
| 2018 | 5 | 5.6 | +1.2 | D+1.9 |
| 2020 | 3 | 6.4 | +0.2 | R+9.8 |
| 2022 | 1 | 30.5 | +14.3 | D+11.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | 25.2 | +16.7 | D+11.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | NC-9 | Richard Ojeda v. Richard Hudson | R+4 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | KY-6 | Zach Dembo v. Ralph Alvarado | D+1 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert v. Jim Desmond | D+2 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | PA-8 | Paige Cognetti v. Rob Bresnahan Jr. | D+2 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Governor NE | Lynne Walz v. Jim Pillen | R+2 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Governor NE | Lynne Walz v. Jim Pillen | R+5 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Senate NE | Dan Osborn v. Pete Ricketts | R+1 |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Governor NE | Lynne Walz v. Jim Pillen | R+12 |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Senate NE | Dan Osborn v. Pete Ricketts | D+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NDD-ALIGNED | R+9 | R+32.9 | D+23.9 | D+9.4 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 President, NDD-ALIGNED | R+10 | R+36.4 | D+26.4 | D+9.4 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | 2022 Senate, SDD-ALIGNED | R+13 | R+43.5 | D+30.5 | D+15.5 |
| Nov 3, 2020 | 2020 PresidentD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+4.4 | R+1.4 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 House, CA-4D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+11.9 | D+7.9 | — |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 House, CA-1D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+14.0 | D+10.0 | — |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 2018 House, AK-1D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+6.6 | D+2.6 | D+1.1 |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2018 House, MI-2D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+12.3 | D+6.3 | — |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2018 House, WA-3D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+5.3 | D+7.3 | R+1.6 |
| Sep 26, 2018 | 2018 House, AZ-8D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+10.9 | D+6.9 | — |
| Apr 16, 2018 | 2018 House, AZ-8D-ALIGNED | Even | R+4.7 | D+4.7 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 President, AKD-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+14.7 | D+13.7 | D+11.6 |
| Sep 30, 2016 | 2016 House, IA-1D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+7.7 | D+5.7 | D+1.7 |
| Sep 28, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MID-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+13.3 | R+4.3 | R+6.0 |
| Sep 28, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MID-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+4.1 | D+3.1 | D+1.6 |
| Sep 16, 2014 | 2014 House, KY-6D-ALIGNED | R+9 | R+20.0 | D+11.0 | D+4.9 |
| Mar 26, 2013 | 2013 House, SC-1D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+12.2 | D+15.2 | D+13.4 |
| Oct 26, 2012 | 2012 President, NHD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+5.6 | R+0.6 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 22, 2012 | 2012 President, OHD-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | Even |
| Oct 21, 2012 | 2012 House, CA-36D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+5.9 | D+0.1 | R+14.9 |
| Oct 20, 2012 | 2012 President, NHD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+5.6 | R+2.6 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | 2012 House, NY-24D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+9.3 | R+7.3 | R+7.3 |
| Oct 3, 2012 | 2012 House, CA-36D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+5.9 | R+2.9 | R+14.9 |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 House, NC-9D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+6.1 | D+5.1 | — |
| May 26, 2012 | 2012 Governor, WID-ALIGNED | Even | R+6.8 | D+6.8 | D+0.4 |
| Oct 13, 2010 | 2010 House, AZ-1D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+6.0 | D+9.0 | R+7.5 |
| Sep 23, 2010 | 2010 House, CA-11D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+1.1 | D+8.9 | R+8.2 |
| Oct 14, 2008 | 2008 House, FL-18D-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+15.7 | D+8.7 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 13, 2008 | 2008 House, WA-8D-ALIGNED | D+7 | R+5.6 | D+12.6 | D+4.6 |
| Oct 22, 2006 | 2006 Senate, MID-ALIGNED | D+18 | D+15.7 | D+2.3 | R+1.1 |
| Sep 30, 2006 | 2006 House, CA-11 | R+1 | D+6.5 | R+7.5 | R+6.5 |
| Sep 25, 2006 | 2006 House, ID-1D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+5.2 | R+0.8 | D+3.9 |
| May 14, 2006 | 2006 House, CA-50D-ALIGNED | D+7 | R+4.6 | D+11.6 | D+8.0 |
| Apr 19, 2006 | 2006 House, CA-50D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+4.6 | D+2.6 | D+8.0 |
| Oct 4, 2004 | 2004 President, WID-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+0.4 | D+3.6 | R+3.1 |
| Sep 22, 2004 | 2004 President, NHD-ALIGNED | Even | D+1.4 | R+1.4 | D+1.5 |
| Sep 21, 2004 | 2004 President, OHD-ALIGNED | Even | R+2.1 | D+2.1 | D+2.2 |
| Sep 16, 2004 | 2004 President, NCD-ALIGNED | Even | R+12.4 | D+12.4 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 30, 2002 | 2002 House, CO-4D-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+13.3 | D+8.3 | R+3.7 |
| Sep 23, 2002 | 2002 Senate, MED-ALIGNED | R+9 | R+16.9 | D+7.9 | R+10.4 |
| Sep 17, 2002 | 2002 House, NH-1D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+19.6 | D+21.6 | D+9.7 |
| Sep 9, 2002 | 2002 Senate, ALD-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+18.7 | D+10.7 | R+12.0 |