Pollster record · how records are scored
Tarrance Group
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2024 · 95% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.14
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.66; 23% own record)
Average miss
6.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
81
66 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 2 | 3.1 | −0.3 | Even |
| 2000 | 3 | 5.2 | +0.5 | R+5.2 |
| 2002 | 10 | 3.6 | −1.5 | D+1.7 |
| 2004 | 3 | 5.5 | +0.9 | R+2.4 |
| 2006 | 1 | 13.5 | +12.3 | R+12.5 |
| 2008 | 7 | 15.2 | +8.7 | R+3.2 |
| 2010 | 16 | 5.9 | −2.9 | Even |
| 2012 | 5 | 8.6 | +2.1 | R+0.3 |
| 2014 | 10 | 7.7 | −0.3 | R+1.2 |
| 2016 | 5 | 5.5 | +0.1 | R+1.4 |
| 2018 | 5 | 7.0 | +2.2 | R+1.5 |
| 2020 | 6 | 1.9 | −4.8 | R+0.4 |
| 2022 | 3 | 3.3 | −0.8 | D+2.0 |
| 2024 | 5 | 4.3 | −0.9 | D+0.7 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | Governor AZ | Katie Hobbs v. Andy Biggs | D+4 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Governor NV | Aaron Ford v. Joe Lombardo | R+7 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+0.3 | R+2.3 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 President, FLR-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+13.1 | D+6.1 | D+7.2 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NV | D+7 | D+1.6 | D+5.4 | D+5.9 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | 2024 President, NV | D+3 | R+3.1 | D+6.1 | D+3.6 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Governor, IAR-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+18.5 | D+1.5 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 19, 2022 | 2022 Senate, IAR-ALIGNED | R+11 | R+12.2 | D+1.2 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-25R-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+11.3 | R+7.3 | — |
| Oct 26, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+1.7 | R+0.4 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | 2020 House, PA-10R-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+6.6 | D+2.6 | D+7.5 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 House, IL-17R-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+4.1 | D+0.9 | D+6.2 |
| Oct 5, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+1.7 | D+0.3 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 House, NM-2R-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+7.4 | D+6.4 | D+5.0 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+1.7 | R+0.7 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+6.5 | D+0.5 | D+6.5 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 House, NM-2R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+1.9 | R+5.9 | R+3.9 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 Senate, WVR-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+3.3 | D+0.7 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 25, 2018 | 2018 House, TX-31R-ALIGNED | R+21 | R+2.9 | R+18.1 | R+8.4 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 House, CO-6R-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+11.2 | R+9.7 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 14, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+9 | D+5.3 | D+3.7 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 House, NV-3R-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+1.3 | R+6.3 | R+0.2 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 House, NV-3R-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+1.3 | R+6.3 | R+0.2 |
| Sep 21, 2016 | 2016 House, IA-3R-ALIGNED | R+15 | R+13.7 | R+1.3 | D+6.5 |
| Sep 18, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-24R-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+6.8 | R+9.8 | — |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Governor, HIR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+12.4 | R+9.4 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 19, 2014 | 2014 House, KS-2R-ALIGNED | R+12 | R+18.4 | D+6.4 | D+7.0 |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2014 Governor, HIR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+12.4 | R+10.4 | R+3.4 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 Governor, AZR-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+11.8 | D+4.8 | D+7.3 |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2014 House, MN-7R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+8.6 | R+9.6 | D+6.0 |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2014 House, IA-3R-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+10.5 | D+8.5 | D+8.9 |
| Sep 24, 2014 | 2014 House, VA-10R-ALIGNED | R+12 | R+16.1 | D+4.1 | D+7.1 |
| Sep 24, 2014 | 2014 House, MA-6R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+13.8 | R+14.8 | R+9.6 |
| Sep 22, 2014 | 2014 House, MN-7R-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+8.6 | R+3.5 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 16, 2014 | 2014 Governor, AZR-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+11.8 | D+5.8 | D+7.3 |
| Oct 17, 2012 | 2012 House, CA-52R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+2.4 | R+6.4 | R+5.4 |
| Oct 10, 2012 | 2012 House, NV-4R-ALIGNED | R+10 | D+8.0 | R+18.0 | R+12.0 |
| Oct 8, 2012 | 2012 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 1, 2012 | 2012 House, CA-9R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+11.1 | R+12.1 | R+6.0 |
| Sep 17, 2012 | 2012 House, PA-4R-ALIGNED | R+22 | R+25.3 | D+3.3 | — |
| Oct 19, 2010 | 2010 House, NM-2R-ALIGNED | R+9 | R+10.8 | D+1.8 | D+6.0 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, MS-4R-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+5.1 | D+3.1 | — |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, TN-8R-ALIGNED | R+15 | R+20.2 | D+5.2 | D+10.2 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 Senate, CAR-ALIGNED | Even | D+10.0 | R+10.0 | R+5.3 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, IA-2R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+5.1 | R+6.1 | — |
| Oct 17, 2010 | 2010 Governor, CAR-ALIGNED | Even | D+12.9 | R+12.9 | R+7.6 |
| Oct 11, 2010 | 2010 House, TN-8R-ALIGNED | R+11 | R+20.2 | D+9.2 | D+10.2 |
| Oct 6, 2010 | 2010 House, PA-10R-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+10.4 | D+5.4 | D+10.8 |
| Oct 4, 2010 | 2010 House, KY-6R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+0.3 | R+1.3 | D+9.8 |
| Oct 4, 2010 | 2010 House, MS-1R-ALIGNED | R+11 | R+14.5 | D+3.5 | D+9.5 |
| Oct 3, 2010 | 2010 House, IL-14R-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+6.3 | D+0.3 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 24, 2010 | 2010 House, IL-17R-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+9.6 | D+8.6 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 21, 2010 | 2010 House, MS-4R-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+5.1 | D+9.1 | — |
| Sep 20, 2010 | 2010 House, KY-6R-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+0.3 | D+6.7 | D+9.8 |
| Sep 13, 2010 | 2010 House, MS-1R-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+14.5 | D+7.5 | D+9.5 |
| Sep 13, 2010 | 2010 House, IA-2R-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+5.1 | R+4.1 | — |
| Oct 22, 2008 | 2008 House, IA-4R-ALIGNED | R+22 | R+21.1 | R+0.9 | — |
| Oct 15, 2008 | 2008 House, FL-16R-ALIGNED | R+26 | R+20.2 | R+5.8 | — |
| Oct 12, 2008 | 2008 House, CA-50R-ALIGNED | R+13 | R+5.1 | R+7.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 9, 2008 | 2008 House, FL-16R-ALIGNED | D+25 | R+20.2 | D+45.2 | — |
| Oct 5, 2008 | 2008 House, OH-7R-ALIGNED | R+24 | R+16.4 | R+7.6 | — |