House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Noble Predictive Insights

Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2016 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.14
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.55; 19% own record)
Average miss
4.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
44
24 races · 18 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
201613.5−0.3D+1.6
201885.5+1.6R+5.6
202074.3−0.2D+1.1
202293.9+0.7D+1.7
2024194.4−2.0D+1.3
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Aug 16, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Aug 13, 2026Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+13
Jun 4, 2026Generic ballotD+6
May 7, 2026Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+4
Mar 13, 2026Governor NVAaron Ford v. Joe LombardoR+1
Mar 5, 2026Generic ballotD+1
Feb 26, 2026Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+5
Oct 13, 2025Governor NVAaron Ford v. Joe LombardoR+3
Oct 6, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Aug 18, 2025Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+2
May 16, 2025Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+2
Apr 18, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Feb 13, 2025Governor AZKatie Hobbs v. Andy BiggsD+2
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 31, 20242024 President, NVD+1R+3.1D+4.1D+3.6
Oct 31, 20242024 Senate, NVD+2D+1.6D+0.4D+5.8
Oct 30, 20242024 President, AZR+1R+5.5D+4.5D+4.7
Oct 30, 20242024 Senate, AZD+4D+2.4D+1.6D+5.0
Oct 28, 20242024 President, UTR+20R+21.6D+1.6R+2.1
Oct 28, 20242024 Governor, UTR+17R+24.4D+7.4R+3.5
Oct 28, 20242024 Senate, UTR+28R+30.8D+2.8D+0.9
Oct 27, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 Generic ballotR+1R+2.7D+1.7D+3.4
Oct 25, 20242024 House, PA-8D+7R+1.6D+8.6—
Oct 10, 20242024 House, AZ-2EvenR+9.0D+9.0—
Oct 7, 20242024 President, UTR+17R+21.6D+4.6R+2.1
Oct 7, 20242024 Senate, UTR+30R+30.8D+1.3D+0.9
Oct 7, 20242024 Governor, UTR+27R+24.4R+2.6R+3.5
Oct 4, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.0D+3.7
Oct 4, 20242024 Generic ballotD+1R+2.7D+3.7D+3.4
Sep 30, 20242024 House, NC-1D+7D+1.7D+5.3D+5.4
Sep 16, 20242024 President, NVD+1R+3.1D+3.6D+3.6
Sep 16, 20242024 Senate, NVD+15D+1.6D+12.9D+5.8
Oct 27, 20222022 Senate, NVD+2D+0.8D+1.2R+0.6
Oct 27, 20222022 Governor, NVD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+0.5
Oct 26, 20222022 Senate, AZD+2D+4.9R+2.9R+1.1
Oct 26, 20222022 Governor, AZR+2D+0.7R+2.7R+1.6
Oct 6, 20222022 Senate, AZD+13D+4.9D+8.1R+1.1
Oct 6, 20222022 Governor, AZR+3D+0.7R+3.3R+1.6
Sep 29, 20222022 Governor, NVR+3R+1.5R+1.5D+0.5
Sep 29, 20222022 Senate, NVR+2D+0.8R+2.8R+0.6
Sep 9, 20222022 Senate, AZD+12D+4.9D+7.1R+1.1
Oct 25, 20202020 Senate, AZD+5D+2.3D+2.7D+4.1
Oct 25, 20202020 President, AZD+3D+0.3D+2.7D+2.3
Oct 8, 20202020 President, AZD+4D+0.3D+3.2D+2.3
Oct 8, 20202020 Senate, AZD+5D+2.3D+2.7D+4.1
Sep 27, 20202020 House, AZ-6R+3R+4.3D+1.3D+2.9
Sep 10, 20202020 Senate, AZD+10D+2.3D+7.7D+4.1
Sep 10, 20202020 President, AZD+10D+0.3D+9.7D+2.3
Nov 3, 20182018 Senate, AZR+1D+2.3R+3.3R+0.8
Oct 23, 20182018 Governor, AZR+18R+14.2R+3.8D+2.5
Oct 23, 20182018 Senate, AZR+7D+2.3R+9.3R+0.8
Oct 3, 20182018 Governor, AZR+17R+14.2R+2.8D+2.5
Oct 2, 20182018 Senate, AZR+6D+2.3R+8.3R+0.8
Sep 25, 20182018 House, AZ-4R+32R+37.7D+5.7—
Sep 6, 20182018 Senate, AZR+3D+2.3R+5.4R+0.8
Apr 11, 20182018 House, AZ-8R+10R+4.7R+5.3R+0.9
Sep 29, 20162016 President, AZEvenR+3.5D+3.5D+2.0