Pollster record · how records are scored
Patinkin Research Strategies
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2018 to 2022 · 83% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.01
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.03; 6% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
5.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
12
7 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 | 7.9 | +2.0 | — |
| 2020 | 8 | 5.5 | +0.6 | R+1.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | 4.2 | +1.4 | Even |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Senate SC | Annie Andrews v. Darline Graham | D+5 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GAD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+7.5 | D+5.5 | D+0.4 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Senate, GAD-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+1.0 | D+3.0 | D+0.3 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, GAD-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+7.5 | D+4.1 | D+0.4 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 President, AZD-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+0.3 | D+6.7 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+2.3 | D+4.7 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, AK | R+3 | R+10.1 | D+7.1 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AK | D+1 | R+12.7 | D+13.7 | D+7.3 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | 2020 President, AZD-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 3, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+2.3 | D+2.7 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 President, AZD-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+0.3 | D+2.7 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+2.3 | D+2.7 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 12, 2018 | 2018 House, OR-2D-ALIGNED | R+9 | R+16.9 | D+7.9 | — |