Senate · 2026

Alabama Senate

Everett Wess (D)v.Barry Moore (R)SAFE R

Open seat, currently Republican.

Projected margin

R+20.4

Nine in ten outcomes: R+12 to R+28

Chance of winning

>99%

Barry Moore

Polls alone

R+14.3

5 polls from 5 pollsters; latest Oct 24. Weight in projection: 44%.

Fundamentals alone

R+25.1

Weight in projection: 56%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.2).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.4

Partisan leanR+21.6

National environmentD+3.8

Incumbency0.0

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapR+7.7

Fundamentals estimateR+25.1

Input: partisan lean

R+29.0

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$2K D · $1.7M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 5 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Wess	Moore	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Oct 22–24	Blueprint Polling	695 LV	40	48	R+8	R+8.5 moved 0.5 toward R	37%	source
Oct 16–17	Cygnal for Alabama Daily News and Gray Media Alabama	500 LV	35	50	R+15	R+14.9 moved 0.1 toward D	32%	source
Oct 15–16	The Alabama Poll	600 LV	35	56	R+21	R+20.7 moved 0.3 toward D	24%	source
Sep 21–25	RMG Research for Alabama Policy Action	800 RV	33	54	R+21	R+21.3 moved 0.3 toward R	6.2%	source
Jul 8–11	yes. every kid. foundation.	601 LV	32	47	R+15	R+15.0	0.3%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Will Boyd	Katie Britt	R+35.7
2020	Gordon Douglas Jones	Tommy Tuberville	R+20.4
2017 (special)	Gordon Douglas Jones	Roy S. Moore	D+1.6
2016	Ronald Steven Crumpton	Richard C. Shelby	R+28.1