House · 2026
Colorado’s 4th District
Eileen Laubacher (D)v.Lauren Boebert (R)LIKELY R
Incumbent: Lauren Boebert, currently Republican.
Projected margin
R+9.4
Nine in ten outcomes: Even to R+19
Chance of winning
94%
Lauren Boebert
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+9.4
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanR+14.3
National environmentD+3.6
IncumbencyR+3.6
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+1.5
Fundraising gapD+2.5
Fundamentals estimateR+9.4
Input: partisan lean
R+16.8
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$2.8M D · $411K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Safe R
Not an input to the projection.