House · 2026

New York’s 3rd District

Tom Suozzi (D)v.Mike LiPetri (R)LIKELY D

Incumbent: Tom Suozzi, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+8.7

Nine in ten outcomes: D+18 to R+1

Chance of winning

93%

Tom Suozzi

Polls alone

—

No public general-election polls yet.

Fundamentals alone

D+8.7

Weight in projection: 100%.

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.8

Partisan leanR+2.4

National environmentD+3.6

IncumbencyD+3.6

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.1

Fundraising gapD+3.0

Fundamentals estimateD+8.7

Input: partisan lean

R+2.8

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$3.2M D · $297K R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Lean D

Not an input to the projection.