House · 2026
New York’s 3rd District
Tom Suozzi (D)v.Mike LiPetri (R)LIKELY D
Incumbent: Tom Suozzi, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+9.7
Nine in ten outcomes: D+19 to Even
Chance of winning
95%
Tom Suozzi
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+9.7
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanR+2.4
National environmentD+4.2
IncumbencyD+3.7
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.1
Fundraising gapD+3.3
Fundamentals estimateD+9.7
Input: partisan lean
R+2.8
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$3.2M D · $297K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Lean D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Lean D
Not an input to the projection.