House · 2026
Colorado’s 8th District
Manny Rutinel (D)v.Gabe Evans (R)TOSS-UP
Incumbent: Gabe Evans, currently Republican.
Projected margin
D+1.4
Nine in ten outcomes: D+11 to R+8
Chance of winning
60%
Manny Rutinel
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+1.4
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanR+0.3
National environmentD+3.6
IncumbencyR+3.6
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.3
Fundraising gapD+0.6
Fundamentals estimateD+1.4
Input: partisan lean
R+0.4
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$2.0M D · $1.3M R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup
Not an input to the projection.