House · 2026
Florida’s 7th District
Bale Dalton (D)v.Ryan Elijah (R)TOSS-UP
Open seat, currently Republican. District lines changed since 2024.
Projected margin
R+0.1
Nine in ten outcomes: D+9 to R+10
Chance of winning
51%
Ryan Elijah
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+0.1
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanR+9.4
National environmentD+3.6
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundraising gapD+4.8
Fundamentals estimateR+0.1
Input: partisan lean
R+11.0
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$923K D · — R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Likely R · Sabato: Likely R · Inside Elections: Likely R
Not an input to the projection.