House · 2026
Arizona’s 1st District
Amish Shah (D)v.Jay Feely (R)LIKELY D
Open seat, currently Republican.
Projected margin
D+8.1
Nine in ten outcomes: D+18 to R+1
Chance of winning
91%
Amish Shah
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+8.1
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanR+1.4
National environmentD+3.6
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundraising gapD+5.0
Fundamentals estimateD+8.1
Input: partisan lean
R+1.6
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$1.1M D · — R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup
Not an input to the projection.