House · 2026

Arizona’s 6th District

JoAnna Mendoza (D)v.Juan Ciscomani (R)TOSS-UP

Incumbent: Juan Ciscomani, currently Republican.

Projected margin

D+1.0

Nine in ten outcomes: D+10 to R+8

Chance of winning

57%

JoAnna Mendoza

Polls alone

D+0.2

3 polls from 3 pollsters; latest Jun 11. Weight in projection: 69%.

Fundamentals alone

D+2.8

Weight in projection: 31%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.8

Partisan leanD+0.6

National environmentD+3.6

IncumbencyR+3.6

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.6

Fundraising gapD+0.7

Fundamentals estimateD+2.8

Input: partisan lean

D+0.7

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$3.4M D · $1.9M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Tossup · Sabato: Tossup · Inside Elections: Tossup

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 3 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Mendoza	Ciscomani	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Jun 8–11	Normington, Petts & AssociatesDEM.-ALIGNED for House Majority PAC	500 LV	47	45	D+2	R+1.6 moved 3.6 toward R	75%	source
Mar 12–14	Ragnar Research PartnersREP.-ALIGNED for Conservatives for America	400 LV	47	44	D+3	D+6.7 moved 3.7 toward D	23%	source
Oct 14–15 ’25	Public Policy PollingDEM.-ALIGNED for House Majority PAC	581 RV	42	41	D+1	R+2.5 moved 3.5 toward R	2.7%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.