House · 2026
New Jersey’s 9th District
Nellie Pou (D)v.Rosie Pino (R)LIKELY D
Incumbent: Nellie Pou, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+8.3
Nine in ten outcomes: D+18 to R+1
Chance of winning
92%
Nellie Pou
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+8.3
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanD+0.3
National environmentD+4.2
IncumbencyD+3.7
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceR+0.7
Fundraising gap0.0
Fundamentals estimateD+8.3
Input: partisan lean
D+0.3
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Likely D
Not an input to the projection.