2026-27 projections
Carabao Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | R3 | 100% | 70% | 46% | 35% | 23% |
| 2Manchester City | #3 | R3 | 100% | 68% | 45% | 30% | 19% |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | R3 | 100% | 63% | 38% | 24% | 13% |
| 4Brentford | #17 | R2 | 100% | 60% | 30% | 14% | 6% |
| 5Chelsea | #9 | R2 | 100% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% |
| 6AFC Bournemouth | #24 | R3 | 100% | 56% | 28% | 12% | 5% |
| 7Newcastle United | #21 | R2 | 100% | 51% | 25% | 12% | 5% |
| 8Aston Villa | #19 | R3 | 100% | 44% | 22% | 11% | 4% |
| 9Brighton & Hove Albion | #12 | R3 | 100% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% |
| 10Everton | #46 | R2 | 100% | 49% | 23% | 9% | 4% |
| 11Crystal Palace | #31 | R3 | 100% | 47% | 21% | 9% | 3% |
| 12Fulham | #47 | R2 | 100% | 53% | 23% | 9% | 3% |
| 13Bradford City | — | R1 | 100% | 62% | 22% | 6% | 2% |
| 14Fleetwood Town | — | R1 | 100% | 30% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| 15Sunderland | #107 | R3 | 100% | 40% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| 16Peterborough United | — | R1 | 100% | 38% | 11% | 2% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.