2026-27 projections
Carabao Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | #5 | R3 | 100% | 100% | 69% | 48% | 31% |
| 2Liverpool | #7 | R3 | 100% | 100% | 62% | 41% | 24% |
| 3AFC Bournemouth | #10 | R3 | 100% | 100% | 38% | 23% | 12% |
| 4Crystal Palace | #40 | R3 | 100% | 100% | 63% | 24% | 9% |
| 5Everton | #38 | R2 | 100% | 100% | 48% | 20% | 8% |
| 6Fleetwood Town | — | R1 | 100% | 100% | 52% | 20% | 7% |
| 7Bradford City | — | R1 | 100% | 100% | 31% | 15% | 7% |
| 8Sunderland | #113 | R3 | 100% | 100% | 37% | 9% | 3% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.