2026-27 projections
Carabao Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | R3 | 78% | 56% | 40% | 31% | 21% |
| 2Manchester City | #4 | R3 | 87% | 60% | 38% | 26% | 16% |
| 3Chelsea | #9 | R2 | 100% | 60% | 34% | 19% | 10% |
| 4Liverpool | #6 | R3 | 69% | 44% | 27% | 17% | 9% |
| 5Newcastle United | #18 | R2 | 100% | 55% | 29% | 14% | 7% |
| 6AFC Bournemouth | #24 | R3 | 100% | 53% | 26% | 12% | 5% |
| 7Manchester United | #14 | R3 | 58% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 5% |
| 8Brentford | #21 | R2 | 72% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 4% |
| 9Crystal Palace | #34 | R3 | 100% | 52% | 24% | 11% | 4% |
| 10Aston Villa | #20 | R3 | 58% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% |
| 11Brighton & Hove Albion | #25 | R3 | 42% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 3% |
| 12Everton | #46 | R2 | 65% | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% |
| 13Tottenham Hotspur | #30 | R2 | 31% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| 14Fleetwood Town | — | R1 | 68% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| 15Sunderland | #116 | R3 | 100% | 39% | 15% | 5% | 1% |
| 16Fulham | #50 | R2 | 48% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 17West Ham United | #57 | R1 | 52% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| 18Bradford City | — | R1 | 100% | 41% | 16% | 4% | 1% |
| 19Peterborough United | — | R1 | 72% | 26% | 9% | 2% | <1% |
| 20Coventry City | #92 | R2 | 42% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 21Wolverhampton Wanderers | #105 | R1 | 35% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Ipswich Town | #103 | R2 | 22% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 23Sheffield United | #225 | R1 | 32% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 24Reading | — | R1 | 28% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 25Barnsley | — | R1 | 28% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Norwich City | #223 | R1 | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.