2026-27 projections
Carabao Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | R3 | 100% | 70% | 48% | 37% | 25% |
| 2Manchester City | #3 | R3 | 100% | 67% | 43% | 30% | 17% |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | R3 | 100% | 62% | 37% | 24% | 12% |
| 4Brentford | #19 | R2 | 100% | 59% | 30% | 13% | 6% |
| 5AFC Bournemouth | #21 | R3 | 100% | 53% | 27% | 13% | 6% |
| 6Chelsea | #9 | R2 | 100% | 38% | 21% | 12% | 6% |
| 7Aston Villa | #13 | R3 | 100% | 47% | 24% | 12% | 6% |
| 8Brighton & Hove Albion | #11 | R3 | 100% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 9Newcastle United | #24 | R2 | 100% | 49% | 24% | 10% | 4% |
| 10Crystal Palace | #34 | R3 | 100% | 47% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
| 11Fulham | #41 | R2 | 100% | 53% | 22% | 8% | 3% |
| 12Everton | #42 | R2 | 100% | 51% | 23% | 9% | 3% |
| 13Bradford City | — | R1 | 100% | 62% | 22% | 6% | 2% |
| 14Fleetwood Town | — | R1 | 100% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 15Sunderland | #106 | R3 | 100% | 41% | 15% | 4% | 1% |
| 16Peterborough United | — | R1 | 100% | 38% | 10% | 1% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.