Pollster record · how records are scored
Marquette University Law School
Method: probability panel · scored polls from 2012 to 2024
Versus the field
+0.04
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.58; 16% own record)
Average miss
3.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
45
17 races · 20 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 10 | 3.2 | −0.6 | D+2.2 |
| 2014 | 4 | 2.6 | −2.8 | R+2.4 |
| 2016 | 6 | 6.1 | −1.7 | R+1.2 |
| 2018 | 6 | 1.4 | −1.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2020 | 4 | 4.4 | −2.1 | R+1.4 |
| 2022 | 7 | 3.0 | −0.3 | D+1.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | 4.0 | +1.0 | D+1.0 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+13 | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Governor WI | David Crowley v. Tom Tiffany | D+5 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 | |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| May 26, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+1 | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+10 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+5 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+2 | D+0.8 | D+1.2 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+2 | R+0.9 | D+2.4 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 President | D+2 | R+1.5 | D+3.0 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+7 | D+0.8 | D+5.7 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+5 | R+0.9 | D+5.4 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+6 | D+0.8 | D+4.7 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 5, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+5 | R+0.9 | D+5.4 | D+2.9 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | Even | D+3.4 | R+3.4 | R+3.2 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+2 | R+1.0 | R+1.0 | R+1.9 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | D+1 | D+3.4 | R+2.4 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+6 | R+1.0 | R+5.0 | R+1.9 |
| Sep 14, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+6 | R+2.6 | D+8.6 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WI | R+1 | R+1.0 | Even | R+1.9 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | 2022 Governor, WI | D+3 | D+3.4 | R+0.4 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+5 | D+0.6 | D+4.4 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+5 | D+0.6 | D+4.4 | D+6.3 |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 President | D+10 | D+4.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 President, WI | D+4 | D+0.6 | D+3.4 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Senate, WI | D+11 | D+10.8 | D+0.2 | Even |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Governor, WI | Even | D+1.1 | R+1.1 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Governor, WI | R+1 | D+1.1 | R+2.1 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Senate, WI | D+10 | D+10.8 | R+0.8 | Even |
| Sep 16, 2018 | 2018 Senate, WI | D+11 | D+10.8 | D+0.2 | Even |
| Sep 16, 2018 | 2018 Governor, WI | D+5 | D+1.1 | D+3.9 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2016 Senate, WI | D+1 | R+3.4 | D+4.4 | D+8.4 |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2016 President, WI | D+6 | R+0.8 | D+6.8 | D+6.1 |
| Oct 8, 2016 | 2016 Senate, WI | D+2 | R+3.4 | D+5.4 | D+8.4 |
| Oct 8, 2016 | 2016 President, WI | D+7 | R+0.8 | D+7.8 | D+6.1 |
| Sep 17, 2016 | 2016 President, WI | D+3 | R+0.8 | D+3.8 | D+6.1 |
| Sep 17, 2016 | 2016 Senate, WI | D+5 | R+3.4 | D+8.4 | D+8.4 |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2014 Governor, WI | R+7 | R+5.7 | R+1.3 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2014 Governor, WI | Even | R+5.7 | D+5.7 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 27, 2014 | 2014 Governor, WI | R+5 | R+5.7 | D+0.7 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 13, 2014 | 2014 Governor, WI | R+3 | R+5.7 | D+2.7 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 27, 2012 | 2012 President, WI | D+8 | D+6.8 | D+1.2 | R+2.0 |
| Oct 27, 2012 | 2012 Senate, WI | D+4 | D+5.5 | R+1.5 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 13, 2012 | 2012 President, WI | D+1 | D+6.8 | R+5.8 | R+2.0 |
| Oct 13, 2012 | 2012 Senate, WI | R+1 | D+5.5 | R+6.5 | R+3.6 |
| Sep 29, 2012 | 2012 President, WI | D+11 | D+6.8 | D+4.2 | R+2.0 |
| Sep 29, 2012 | 2012 Senate, WI | D+4 | D+5.5 | R+1.5 | R+3.6 |
| Sep 15, 2012 | 2012 President, WI | D+14 | D+6.8 | D+7.2 | R+2.0 |
| Sep 15, 2012 | 2012 Senate, WI | D+9 | D+5.5 | D+3.5 | R+3.6 |
| May 25, 2012 | 2012 Governor, WI | R+7 | R+6.8 | R+0.2 | D+0.7 |
| May 11, 2012 | 2012 Governor, WI | R+6 | R+6.8 | D+0.8 | D+0.7 |