House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

RMG Research

Method: ivr mix · scored polls from 2020 to 2024

Versus the field
−0.24
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.48; 34% own record)
Average miss
4.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
85
54 races · 104 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
2020464.7−1.0R+0.4
2022210.4−0.2D+0.5
2024374.0−0.4Even
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 15, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Aug 4, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Jul 24, 2026Governor WIDavid Crowley v. Tom TiffanyD+3
Jul 14, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Jun 4, 2026Generic ballotD+4
May 6, 2026Generic ballotD+9
Apr 9, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Mar 4, 2026Generic ballotEven
Feb 12, 2026Generic ballotR+2
Jan 8, 2026Generic ballotD+1
Dec 4, 2025Generic ballotR+4
Nov 3, 2025Generic ballotR+2
Oct 30, 2025Generic ballotR+2
Sep 24, 2025Generic ballotR+1
Aug 21, 2025Generic ballotEven
Jul 16, 2025Generic ballotR+4
Jun 19, 2025Generic ballotR+8
Jun 9, 2025Generic ballotEven
May 21, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Apr 16, 2025Generic ballotD+5
Feb 21, 2025Generic ballotR+2
Jan 16, 2025Generic ballotR+7
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Oct 17, 20242024 President, FLR+5R+13.1D+8.1D+7.2
Oct 17, 20242024 Senate, FLR+8R+12.8D+4.8D+8.2
Oct 16, 20242024 Senate, WID+3D+0.8D+2.2D+2.9
Oct 16, 20242024 PresidentD+1R+1.5D+2.5D+3.7
Oct 16, 20242024 Senate, MID+4D+0.3D+3.7D+4.1
Oct 16, 20242024 President, WIR+1R+0.9R+0.1D+3.0
Oct 16, 20242024 President, MIEvenR+1.4D+1.4D+3.7
Oct 10, 20242024 President, GAR+3R+2.2R+0.8D+1.6
Oct 10, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 3, 20242024 Senate, NVD+16D+1.6D+14.4D+5.4
Oct 3, 20242024 President, NVEvenR+3.1D+3.1D+3.7
Oct 3, 20242024 PresidentEvenR+1.5D+1.5D+3.7
Oct 2, 20242024 President, AZR+4R+5.5D+1.5D+4.8
Oct 2, 20242024 Senate, AZD+10D+2.4D+7.6D+4.8
Sep 27, 20242024 President, FLR+2R+13.1D+11.1D+7.2
Sep 27, 20242024 President, TXR+7R+13.7D+6.7D+7.2
Sep 27, 20242024 President, MID+3R+1.4D+4.4D+3.7
Sep 27, 20242024 Governor, NCD+15D+14.8D+0.2R+1.0
Sep 27, 20242024 President, NCR+4R+3.2R+0.8D+2.7
Sep 27, 20242024 Senate, TXR+3R+8.5D+5.5D+4.5
Sep 27, 20242024 Senate, FLR+6R+12.8D+6.8D+8.2
Sep 27, 20242024 Senate, MID+6D+0.3D+5.7D+4.1
Sep 25, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Sep 23, 20242024 Senate, WID+6D+0.8D+5.2D+2.9
Sep 23, 20242024 President, WID+1R+0.9D+1.9D+3.0
Sep 20, 20242024 President, PAEvenR+1.7D+1.7D+2.6
Sep 20, 20242024 Senate, PAD+6R+0.2D+6.2D+4.7
Sep 20, 20242024 Senate, OHR+2R+3.6D+1.6D+4.2
Sep 20, 20242024 President, OHR+11R+11.2D+0.2D+4.5
Sep 19, 20242024 President, MTR+21R+19.9R+1.1D+2.5
Sep 19, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Sep 19, 20242024 Senate, MTR+7R+7.1D+0.1D+2.6
Sep 12, 20242024 House, CA-41D+6R+3.4D+9.4D+1.2
Sep 12, 20242024 PresidentD+4R+1.5D+5.5D+3.7
Sep 12, 20242024 House, IA-3D+3R+3.8D+6.8D+3.9
Sep 12, 20242024 House, NY-19D+3D+2.2D+0.8R+0.7
Sep 5, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 13, 20222022 Senate, FLR+5R+16.4D+11.4D+9.8
Oct 13, 20222022 Governor, FLR+10R+19.4D+9.4D+10.1
Dec 14, 20202020 Senate, GAD+1D+2.1R+1.1R+1.0
Dec 14, 20202020 Senate, GAD+2D+1.2D+0.8R+0.8
Nov 24, 20202020 Senate, GAD+2D+2.1R+0.1R+1.0
Nov 24, 20202020 Senate, GAD+1D+1.2R+0.2R+0.8
Oct 31, 20202020 PresidentD+7D+4.4D+2.6D+4.4
Oct 30, 20202020 President, FLD+4R+3.4D+7.4D+5.4
Oct 29, 20202020 Senate, MID+9D+1.7D+7.3D+5.4
Oct 29, 20202020 President, MID+7D+2.8D+4.2D+4.5
Oct 28, 20202020 Senate, TXR+6R+9.6D+3.6D+3.7
Oct 28, 20202020 President, TXR+4R+5.6D+1.6D+2.9
Oct 27, 20202020 President, PAD+6D+1.2D+4.8D+4.1
Oct 26, 20202020 Senate, NCD+7R+1.7D+8.7D+6.0
Oct 26, 20202020 Governor, NCD+12D+4.5D+7.5D+5.5
Oct 26, 20202020 President, NCD+1R+1.3D+2.3D+2.8
Oct 24, 20202020 PresidentD+7D+4.4D+2.6D+4.4
Oct 22, 20202020 President, FLD+2R+3.4D+5.4D+5.4
Oct 21, 20202020 Senate, IAD+3R+6.6D+9.6D+7.4
Oct 21, 20202020 President, IAEvenR+8.2D+8.2D+7.3
Oct 20, 20202020 President, WID+6D+0.6D+5.4D+6.3
Oct 19, 20202020 President, AZD+1D+0.3D+0.7D+2.4
Oct 19, 20202020 Senate, AZD+7D+2.3D+4.7D+4.1