Pollster record · how records are scored
Public Policy Institute of California
Method: probability panel · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
+0.26
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.02; 12% own record)
Average miss
6.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
40
20 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 4 | 9.3 | +0.4 | R+1.9 |
| 2000 | 4 | 3.5 | −2.4 | D+0.5 |
| 2002 | 2 | 4.1 | +0.5 | D+1.6 |
| 2003 | 2 | 15.6 | +6.3 | D+8.0 |
| 2004 | 4 | 2.0 | −1.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0.5 | −4.0 | R+4.0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 7.6 | +0.2 | R+0.8 |
| 2010 | 4 | 6.7 | −0.7 | R+0.2 |
| 2012 | 2 | 10.1 | +4.1 | R+4.8 |
| 2014 | 2 | 2.5 | +0.8 | R+1.0 |
| 2016 | 2 | 9.1 | +2.4 | R+6.4 |
| 2018 | 2 | 12.4 | +4.8 | R+5.2 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.7 | −3.1 | R+3.9 |
| 2022 | 2 | 4.6 | +1.1 | D+1.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | 8.8 | +3.4 | D+3.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Governor CA | Xavier Becerra v. Steve Hilton | D+22 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Governor CA | Xavier Becerra v. Steve Hilton | D+25 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 Senate, CA | D+26 | D+17.7 | D+8.3 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 President, CA | D+26 | D+20.1 | D+5.9 | D+5.5 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | 2024 Senate, CA | D+28 | D+17.7 | D+10.3 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | 2024 President, CA | D+31 | D+20.1 | D+10.9 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CA | D+19 | D+18.4 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Sep 11, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CA | D+27 | D+18.4 | D+8.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 President, CA | D+26 | D+29.2 | R+3.2 | D+2.2 |
| Sep 13, 2020 | 2020 President, CA | D+29 | D+29.2 | R+0.2 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 2018 Governor, CA | D+11 | D+23.9 | R+12.9 | R+7.2 |
| Sep 18, 2018 | 2018 Governor, CA | D+12 | D+23.9 | R+11.9 | R+7.2 |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2016 President, CA | D+26 | D+30.1 | R+4.1 | R+2.8 |
| Sep 13, 2016 | 2016 President, CA | D+16 | D+30.1 | R+14.1 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2014 Governor, CA | D+16 | D+19.9 | R+3.9 | R+0.4 |
| Sep 12, 2014 | 2014 Governor, CA | D+21 | D+19.9 | D+1.1 | R+0.4 |
| Oct 18, 2012 | 2012 President, CA | D+12 | D+23.1 | R+11.1 | R+5.3 |
| Sep 13, 2012 | 2012 President, CA | D+14 | D+23.1 | R+9.1 | R+5.3 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 Senate, CA | D+5 | D+10.0 | R+5.0 | R+5.5 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 Governor, CA | D+8 | D+12.9 | R+4.9 | R+7.6 |
| Sep 23, 2010 | 2010 Senate, CA | D+7 | D+10.0 | R+3.0 | R+5.5 |
| Sep 23, 2010 | 2010 Governor, CA | R+1 | D+12.9 | R+13.9 | R+7.6 |
| Oct 16, 2008 | 2008 President, CA | D+23 | D+24.1 | R+1.1 | R+6.8 |
| Sep 13, 2008 | 2008 President, CA | D+10 | D+24.1 | R+14.1 | R+6.8 |
| Oct 19, 2006 | 2006 Governor, CA | R+18 | R+17.0 | R+1.0 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 17, 2006 | 2006 Governor, CA | R+17 | R+17.0 | Even | D+3.5 |
| Oct 14, 2004 | 2004 Senate, CA | D+18 | D+19.9 | R+1.9 | R+1.2 |
| Oct 14, 2004 | 2004 President, CA | D+12 | D+9.9 | D+2.1 | R+0.7 |
| Sep 16, 2004 | 2004 President, CA | D+12 | D+9.9 | D+2.1 | R+0.7 |
| Sep 16, 2004 | 2004 Senate, CA | D+18 | D+19.9 | R+1.9 | R+1.2 |
| Sep 13, 2003 | 2003 Governor, CA | D+2 | R+17.1 | D+19.1 | D+7.6 |
| Aug 12, 2003 | 2003 Governor, CA | R+5 | R+17.1 | D+12.1 | D+7.6 |
| Oct 11, 2002 | 2002 Governor, CA | D+10 | D+4.9 | D+5.1 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 16, 2002 | 2002 Governor, CA | D+8 | D+4.9 | D+3.1 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 15, 2000 | 2000 Senate, CA | D+17 | D+19.3 | R+2.3 | R+4.1 |
| Oct 15, 2000 | 2000 President, CA | D+5 | D+11.8 | R+6.8 | R+4.0 |
| Sep 8, 2000 | 2000 Senate, CA | D+17 | D+19.3 | R+2.3 | R+4.1 |
| Sep 8, 2000 | 2000 President, CA | D+9 | D+11.8 | R+2.8 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 3, 1998 | 1998 Senate, CA | D+3 | D+10.0 | R+7.0 | R+7.2 |
| Oct 3, 1998 | 1998 Governor, CA | D+8 | D+19.6 | R+11.6 | R+7.5 |
| Sep 4, 1998 | 1998 Senate, CA | D+2 | D+10.0 | R+8.0 | R+7.2 |
| Sep 4, 1998 | 1998 Governor, CA | D+9 | D+19.6 | R+10.6 | R+7.5 |