Pollster record · how records are scored
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies
Method: online opt-in · scored polls from 2018 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.13
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −2.46; 9% own record)
Average miss
3.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
18
14 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 9 | 3.2 | −3.4 | D+4.5 |
| 2020 | 2 | 8.3 | +4.6 | D+7.6 |
| 2022 | 2 | 2.6 | −0.9 | R+0.7 |
| 2024 | 5 | 2.0 | −4.4 | R+4.7 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Governor CA | Xavier Becerra v. Steve Hilton | D+18 |
| May 24, 2026 | Governor CA | Xavier Becerra v. Steve Hilton | D+21 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 Senate, CA | D+21 | D+17.7 | D+3.3 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 Senate, CA | D+20 | D+17.7 | D+2.3 | D+8.3 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 President, CA | D+22 | D+20.1 | D+1.9 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 Senate, CA | D+17 | D+17.7 | R+0.7 | D+5.5 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 President, CA | D+22 | D+20.1 | D+1.9 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CA | D+21 | D+18.4 | D+2.6 | D+3.3 |
| Sep 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, CA | D+21 | D+18.4 | D+2.6 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 21, 2020 | 2020 President, CA | D+36 | D+29.2 | D+6.8 | D+0.8 |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 President, CA | D+39 | D+29.2 | D+9.8 | D+0.8 |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2018 Governor, CA | D+18 | D+23.9 | R+5.9 | R+7.8 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-10 | D+5 | D+4.5 | D+0.5 | R+2.1 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-50 | R+2 | R+3.4 | D+1.4 | R+3.4 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-49 | D+14 | D+12.8 | D+1.2 | R+4.5 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-48 | Even | D+7.1 | R+7.1 | R+10.3 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-45 | D+7 | D+4.1 | D+2.9 | R+4.3 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-39 | D+1 | D+3.1 | R+2.1 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-25 | D+4 | D+8.7 | R+4.7 | R+12.0 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-22 | R+8 | R+5.4 | R+2.6 | R+6.5 |